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The Latest Breaking News from Paul Donovan

Stock market fear index spikes after Trump's war threats

Here’s a snapshot of the action this morning prior to the opening bell in New York.

Fortune

U.S. data quality has been declining for years. Now Trump’s cutbacks are leading economists to question its figures

More squishy data could lead to errors for businesses, investors, and even the Federal Reserve.

Fortune

Wall Street’s massive swings signal investors are now ‘too optimistic’ about Trump’s tariff agenda, warns UBS

“These retreats are so frequent that investors should rationally expect them. So why do markets still react to the initial announcements?” UBS’s Paul Donovan asked.

Fortune

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Trump’s ‘art of the retreat’ may signal he’s setting Powell up to take the fall for economic turmoil

Trump’s tactical retreat on key points like Fed Chair Powell and trade negotiations with China signals a change within the White House—potentially lining up a scapegoat if its policies fall flat.

Fortune

Could Trump’s tariffs give a green light for corporate profiteering?

Expectations of inflation, and recent waves of price rises, could be self-fulfilling and fuel ‘greedflation’ – and it may not only apply to US consumers

The Guardian - UK

Musk says Trump top tariff advisor is a ‘moron.’ The White House says it won’t interfere: ‘Boys will be boys’

Wall Street wants clear leadership from the White House. Instead, it’s getting infighting and a response that “boys will be boys.”

Fortune

U.S. manufacturers are on edge as Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs loom: ‘We need to make decisions, but the ball is constantly moving’

As “Liberation Day” approaches, one firm said it had not experienced this level of uncertainty in nearly 50 years of doing business.

Fortune

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Trump’s tariffs have Wall Street analysts distraught

The consensus? Tariffs are mostly bad news.

Fortune

Wall Street worried that new tariffs will turn the Trump bump into a slump

Even unfilled tariff threats are beginning to alter consumer and business behavior, with markets stumbling on news of yet more sanctions on China.

Fortune

Stocks fall as market awaits Nvidia earnings, inflation data

The impacts of the Trump administration’s moves with tariffs and mass federal layoffs remain huge wild cards.

Fortune

Trump tariffs won’t just make imports pricier — car insurance costs will go up too

A tariff on autos would drive up already-inflated insurance costs.

Fortune

Markets are starting to view Trump as more of a ‘pushover’ on tariffs than a protectionist, UBS economist says

President Donald Trump announced his administration will study reciprocal tariffs, but stopped short of implementing them at this time.

Fortune

Rate cut hopes are fading fast as inflation data and record egg prices make 'very uncomfortable’ reading for Jerome Powell

Data isn’t stacking up for a Fed rate cut, multiple regional presidents have hinted, as January’s CPI report makes for “uncomfortable” reading for Powell.

Fortune

UBS chief economist says Democrats in particular are panic-buying right now because they are ‘fearful’ about Trump’s tariffs spiking prices

Consumers are getting ahead of price spikes and buying now as tariff concerns raise inflations expectations.

Fortune

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Fortune

Trump crying wolf over tariffs has already convinced Wall Street that threats will be short-lived

An eleventh-hour deal achieved President Trump’s political aims, but Wall Street remains concerned that tariffs will become a permanent threat in negotiations.

Fortune

Tariffs are exactly what Trump promised—the market ‘completely underpriced risks,’ says Deutsche Bank economist

Deutsche Bank has a wake-up call for analysts who denied Trump would deliver on tax rhetoric—but UBS is questioning how quickly the White House may retreat.

Fortune

Markets are banking on Trump's pledges not graduating into policy

"The potential for market moves therefore depends ... on any emerging signals about how dramatic those policies might turn out to be," said UBS's chief economist Paul Donovan.

Fortune

Markets are finally believing Fed chair Jerome Powell will pull off his soft landing

"The general direction of U.S. employment signals an economy very far from 'recession,'" wrote UBS chief economist Paul Donovan.

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Fortune

Second Trump assassination attempt isn’t changing the state of the race

Odds in prediction markets for the presidential election remain where they were before a would-be shooter was caught on Sunday.

Fortune

JD Vance backs Trump's call for more political influence over the Fed

Ohioan senator JD Vance, argues monetary policy—which includes interest rates—should "fundamentally be a political decision."

Fortune

Trump's demand for influence over the Fed conjures comparisons to Nixon

Nixon's Fed chair Arthur Burns is viewed by many as the worst in the institution's history for failing to stand up to the White House.

Fortune

U.K. has 'far more millionaires than it deserves' as 500,000 to flee to Italy and Spain

The U.K. will lose 17% of its millionaires in the coming years, but the country's government shouldn't worry.

The Independent UK

As Art Basel opens, buyers confront a 'cooling' but still very active market

Multi-million-dollar works by Jean-Michel Basquiat, Yayoi Kusama and Alberto Giacometti went on the market this week as fair Art Basel opened in Switzerland

Fortune

America’s latest inflation wave is all about corporations ‘using excuses’ and ‘cover’ to increase profits, says top UBS economist

“We’re seeing this expansion of margin under the cover of, ‘Oh, it’s a general inflation problem, we can’t help it,’ Paul Donovan of UBS said Thursday.

Fortune

‘Greedflation’ takes a turn: Republicans’ hatred of Joe Biden’s economy makes them easy prey for ‘profit-led inflation episodes,’ UBS chief economist says

Look closely at the Michigan consumer sentiment data, Paul Donovan says: “The detail is hilarious…The two groups appear to be living on different planets.” It was flipped under Trump.

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