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The Latest Breaking News from Jim Reid

A ‘perfect alignment’ across markets has Wall Street 100% convinced of a rate cut

Job weakness and softer inflation data push markets to fully price in a September Fed cut, but Powell’s decision could spark volatility if he resists.

Fortune

The first battle in the war on Fed independence takes shape today at Lisa Cook’s emergency hearing

Trump’s bid to oust Fed governor Lisa Cook faces a legal showdown as she sues to block her removal, escalating the fight over Fed independence.

Fortune

Trump’s threat to fire another Fed member has Wall Street weighing the price of ‘wrecking institutions’ with ‘scapegoat economics’

While UBS’s Paul Donovan told clients the attempt was “completely unprecedented,” Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel argued her ousting adds “noise but little substance” compared with the Fed’s longer-term policy pivots.

Fortune

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Markets have convinced themselves they’ll get a September base rate cut. Now they’re eyeing a double reduction

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pushing for 50 bps to offset missed opportunities earlier this summer, but some analysts warn that rising core inflation to 3.1% and upcoming jobs data could still delay action.

Fortune

Markets are so used to the TACO trade they didn’t even blink when Trump extended a tariff delay with China

Once upon a time, a decision to delay sky-high tariffs on China would have been an 11th hour save—but in 2025 markets barely noticed.

Fortune

Stocks slide globally as investors digest Trump’s new tariffs—and analysts warn the worst is yet to come

"These taxes do not show up in consumer baskets with full force until January next year," UBS says.

Fortune

Japanese equities rally on ‘massive’ U.S. trade deal, with markets buoyed by hopes of more 11th hour announcements

While the announcement was cause for optimism ahead of Aug. 1, analysts remained concerned about the steep tariffs still looming for key trading partners such as Brazil and the EU.

Fortune

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Today’s housing market is so upside down there are more senior citizens buying homes than Gen Z and millennials

Home buyers need to make six figures to afford a median-priced home in the U.S.

Fortune

Markets are preparing for an international game of tariff bluff—but President Trump may no longer need to back down

Analysts including Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid and Goldman Sachs’ Sven Jari Stehn suggest Trump's sharp escalation is more likely a negotiation tactic than a firm policy shift.

Fortune

The markets are playing chicken against Trump on the assumption that the Fed will rescue them if their call is wrong

"At some stage, someone’s bluff could be called," says Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid. "If huge tariffs do get imposed on August 1st, in thin holiday markets, we could get a sizeable market reaction.”

Fortune

‘Masterful inactivity’ reigned at Fed’s latest meeting—but notes reveal more officials are coming around to Donald Trump’s way of thinking

Fed officials are increasingly split on rate cuts, though UBS’s Paul Donovan says their indecision currently amounts to little more than “masterful inactivity.”

Fortune

Trump keeps getting in the way of the rate cut he desperately wants from Jerome Powell

Deutsche Bank argues the Fed's path to cutting is only getting more "difficult" because of Trump's changing tariff policies.

Fortune

Wall Street buoyed by Lutnick’s 10-deal pipeline, but analyst warns present calm may merely be the ‘eye of the storm’

Lutnick’s China promise did little to impress markets, but overall added to a period of relative stability. Yet one analyst warned this may be a “false dawn.”

Fortune

As Trump floats regime change to ‘Make Iran Great Again’, Deutsche Bank warns Europe has drawn the short straw in escalating conflict

Europe may have drawn the economic short straw after the U.S. intervened in Middle East tensions, while JPMorgan warns the volatility may be set to last.

Fortune

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Fortune

America's prized 'exceptionalism' is the collateral damage of Trump's tariff war, says Deutsche Bank

"The structural foundations of U.S. exceptionalism—particularly the ability to finance itself cheaply via the dollar’s reserve status—have begun to erode," wrote Deutsche Bank.

Fortune

Investors may be suffering tariff whiplash but markets are set for solid May gains

As Deutsche Bank's global head of macro research Jim Reid wrote this morning, "Trading and analysing this market successfully requires a lot of luck. Unless of course I get it right and then its skill."

Fortune

Court blocking Trump tariffs torpedoes his negotiating tactic, but it’s ‘hardly the end of this story’

“We haven’t heard directly from President Trump on the matter yet, so it’s unclear how the administration might respond going forward,” one analyst notes.

Fortune

U.S. economy is experiencing 'death by a thousand cuts', says Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid says Moody's recent debt downgrade continues a drip of bad fiscal news for the American economic outlook.

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Fortune

Will Moody's U.S. credit downgrade trigger 'flight to quality?'

It’s no secret the national debt is on an unsustainable path.

Fortune

Jerome Powell may finally grant Trump his interest rate wish thanks to China deal

President Trump's wish for a rate cut may be looking more realistic as economic uncertainty clears—but it still won't be happening any time soon.

Fortune

The Fed will likely keep interest rates on hold today, so markets will be watching for Trump’s reaction

If markets are hoping for some hints from Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman might disappoint.

Fortune

Trump’s ‘art of the retreat’ may signal he’s setting Powell up to take the fall for economic turmoil

Trump’s tactical retreat on key points like Fed Chair Powell and trade negotiations with China signals a change within the White House—potentially lining up a scapegoat if its policies fall flat.

The Independent UK

The 35 greatest debut albums of all time, from Joy Division to Oasis

These records serve as statements of intent and have the power to change or reshape the industry, inspire fellow musicians, and drive essential conversation about our understanding of music. Roisin O'Connor picks the best of the bunch

Fortune

‘The smell of stagflation’ is mounting as Trump’s Liberation Day arrives

Stagflation fears are mounting, warns Deutsche Bank, as Donald Trump's latest tariff announcements tick closer.

Fortune

Wall Street braces for Trump’s April 2 tariff deadline—it foresees 18% EU import duties and a 43% chance of a U.S. recession

Analysts expect tariffs on the EU, a key trading partner for the U.S., to settle at around 18% as recession expectations hit more than 40%.

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