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The Latest Breaking News from Jim Reid

Taco Thursday: European and US stocks rise after Trump ‘chickens out’ over tariffs

Gains come after US president says he will not use military force to acquire territory and cites ‘framework deal’

The Guardian - US

Wall Street is once again banking on the TACO trade because they've been 'burned' by believing Trump before

At the time of writing, only 17% of Polymarket bettors believe all the tariffs Trump has threatened against Europe will go into effect on Feb. 1. A further minority of 40% believe any tariffs will go into effect in a fortnight’s time.

Fortune

America’s ‘Achilles Heel’ of national debt is exposed by Trump’s Greenland tariff threat, warns Deutsche Bank

"While in many ways it feels like the U.S. holds the economic cards, it doesn’t hold all the funding cards in a world that will be very disturbed by the weekend’s events."

Fortune

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US oil company shares and Venezuelan bonds rally after Maduro seized, sending Dow to record high – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, with gold and defence company shares also higher today

The Guardian - UK

Stocks: Everything is on hold until the Fed delivers that rate cut on Wednesday

The market will get moving again once it digests Chair Powell’s statement and his remarks to the press.

Fortune

Global stock markets fall sharply over AI bubble fears

Drop in US, Asia and Europe follows warning from bank bosses that market correction could lie ahead

The Guardian - UK

The U.S. housing market is 'starved' for affordability: Boomers edge millennials and Gen Z out of homeownership in record numbers

Home buyers need to make six figures to afford a median-priced home in the U.S.

Fortune

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For now, data ignorance is bliss on Wall Street as investors warned not to rely too heavily on private surveys

"The danger with this data is that its message will be given unwarranted credibility by the absence of proper economic data," said UBS's chief economist, Paul Donovan.

Fortune

Powell gave traders a green light to double down on AI—but the markets punished Meta and Microsoft anyway

The market declined to demonstrate irrational exuberance despite upbeat remarks from the Fed.

Fortune

A ‘perfect alignment’ across markets has Wall Street 100% convinced of a rate cut

Job weakness and softer inflation data push markets to fully price in a September Fed cut, but Powell’s decision could spark volatility if he resists.

Fortune

The first battle in the war on Fed independence takes shape today at Lisa Cook’s emergency hearing

Trump’s bid to oust Fed governor Lisa Cook faces a legal showdown as she sues to block her removal, escalating the fight over Fed independence.

Fortune

Trump’s threat to fire another Fed member has Wall Street weighing the price of ‘wrecking institutions’ with ‘scapegoat economics’

While UBS’s Paul Donovan told clients the attempt was “completely unprecedented,” Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel argued her ousting adds “noise but little substance” compared with the Fed’s longer-term policy pivots.

Fortune

Markets have convinced themselves they’ll get a September base rate cut. Now they’re eyeing a double reduction

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pushing for 50 bps to offset missed opportunities earlier this summer, but some analysts warn that rising core inflation to 3.1% and upcoming jobs data could still delay action.

Fortune

Markets are so used to the TACO trade they didn’t even blink when Trump extended a tariff delay with China

Once upon a time, a decision to delay sky-high tariffs on China would have been an 11th hour save—but in 2025 markets barely noticed.

Fortune

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Fortune

Stocks slide globally as investors digest Trump’s new tariffs—and analysts warn the worst is yet to come

"These taxes do not show up in consumer baskets with full force until January next year," UBS says.

Fortune

Japanese equities rally on ‘massive’ U.S. trade deal, with markets buoyed by hopes of more 11th hour announcements

While the announcement was cause for optimism ahead of Aug. 1, analysts remained concerned about the steep tariffs still looming for key trading partners such as Brazil and the EU.

Fortune

Today’s housing market is so upside down there are more senior citizens buying homes than Gen Z and millennials

Home buyers need to make six figures to afford a median-priced home in the U.S.

Fortune

Markets are preparing for an international game of tariff bluff—but President Trump may no longer need to back down

Analysts including Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid and Goldman Sachs’ Sven Jari Stehn suggest Trump's sharp escalation is more likely a negotiation tactic than a firm policy shift.

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Fortune

The markets are playing chicken against Trump on the assumption that the Fed will rescue them if their call is wrong

"At some stage, someone’s bluff could be called," says Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid. "If huge tariffs do get imposed on August 1st, in thin holiday markets, we could get a sizeable market reaction.”

Fortune

‘Masterful inactivity’ reigned at Fed’s latest meeting—but notes reveal more officials are coming around to Donald Trump’s way of thinking

Fed officials are increasingly split on rate cuts, though UBS’s Paul Donovan says their indecision currently amounts to little more than “masterful inactivity.”

Fortune

Trump keeps getting in the way of the rate cut he desperately wants from Jerome Powell

Deutsche Bank argues the Fed's path to cutting is only getting more "difficult" because of Trump's changing tariff policies.

Fortune

Wall Street buoyed by Lutnick’s 10-deal pipeline, but analyst warns present calm may merely be the ‘eye of the storm’

Lutnick’s China promise did little to impress markets, but overall added to a period of relative stability. Yet one analyst warned this may be a “false dawn.”

Fortune

As Trump floats regime change to ‘Make Iran Great Again’, Deutsche Bank warns Europe has drawn the short straw in escalating conflict

Europe may have drawn the economic short straw after the U.S. intervened in Middle East tensions, while JPMorgan warns the volatility may be set to last.

Fortune

America's prized 'exceptionalism' is the collateral damage of Trump's tariff war, says Deutsche Bank

"The structural foundations of U.S. exceptionalism—particularly the ability to finance itself cheaply via the dollar’s reserve status—have begun to erode," wrote Deutsche Bank.

Fortune

Investors may be suffering tariff whiplash but markets are set for solid May gains

As Deutsche Bank's global head of macro research Jim Reid wrote this morning, "Trading and analysing this market successfully requires a lot of luck. Unless of course I get it right and then its skill."

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