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The Latest Breaking News from Jan Hatzius

Scott Bessent Once Called Tariffs As 'Dog That Didn't Bark,' Now Wall Street Analysts Predict A Less Dramatic 'One-Time' Inflation Hike As August 1 Deadline Nears

The looming deadline for President Donald Trump‘s tariffs has sparked a shift in Wall Street’s predictions. Analysts are now projecting a more moderate increase in inflation, a departure from earlier fears of a significant surge.

Benzinga

Tariffs are beginning to look like the ‘dog that didn’t bark’ to Wall Street, with inflation expected to take a one-time hit and Trump unlikely to enforce letter threats

As markets shrug off the Aug. 1 deadline, analysts warn that investor calm could embolden the White House to follow through—especially if economic data remains strong.

Fortune

How much is AI really replacing jobs? Goldman Sachs looks under the hood and has 3 takeaways to defuse the hype

"There is no sign of a significant impact on most labor market outcomes," chief economist Jan Hatzius writes. But the shift is real.

Fortune

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The college degree 'safety premium' is almost gone—but mainly because so many non-grads have given up looking for work

In 2025, the job-finding rate for college grads is just 0.9 percentage points higher than for non-degree holders, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius found.

Fortune

Goldman Sachs expects China tariffs to drop soon. But the bank still puts the chance of a recession at 45%

Although “the mood music with China has improved,” the bank’s chief economist still expects other tariffs increases—and sees “a meaningful risk that some of the paused ‘reciprocal’ tariffs will take effect after all.”

Fortune

How Trump's First 100 Days Have Impacted Your Portfolio

President Trump's first 100 days in office have been busy, with a flurry of executive orders sparking volatility in the stock and bond markets.

Kiplinger

Wall Street sinks into bear market as Trump tariffs spark global rout

Wall Street eyes bear market territory as Trump’s tariffs triggered a global selloff. The S&P 500 is projected to drop over 20% from February highs, fuelling recession fears among experts.

Euronews

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Goldman Sachs’ chief economist just downgraded the entire U.S. economy as Trump’s latest tariff salvo rattles markets

The storied investment bank has forecast GDP growth to come in below Wall Street’s consensus for the first time in 2½ years.

Fortune

Stock Market Today: Dow Off 890 Points on Tariff Uncertainty

President Donald Trump still believes his ever-evolving plan for global trade will be "great for us," but "it takes a little time."

Kiplinger

Markets are finally believing Fed chair Jerome Powell will pull off his soft landing

"The general direction of U.S. employment signals an economy very far from 'recession,'" wrote UBS chief economist Paul Donovan.

Fortune

Goldman Sachs Lowers US Recession Probability To 20% On Strong Economic Data

The adjustment comes after the investment bank had previously raised the odds from 15% earlier this month.

International Business Times

Goldman Sachs's Jan Hatzius: Markets humble analysts by proving them wrong

"It’s been a humbling five years for economic forecasters, with three big errors in consensus forecasts."

Fortune

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means

While warning about a 25 percent chance of an economic downturn, Goldman Sachs said the US economy remains “fine overall,” and that the recession risk is “limited”

The Independent UK

Stock Market Today: Stocks Fall After Fed Official Says There's No Need to Rush Rate Cuts

Markets didn't like Fedspeak that downplayed the need for speedy rate cuts.

Kiplinger

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Fortune

Welcome to the era of 'normalization': Why Wall Street is convinced consumers will get comfortable with some economic pains in 2024

Taking a look across the outlooks for next year, there's one word that stands out from Wall Street. "Normal."

Fortune

Wall Street's expecting a soft landing in 2024—but that doesn't mean stocks will soar

Economists’ economic outlook ranges from pessimistic to disastrous — here’s why.

Fortune

Goldman Sachs’ chief economist says ‘The Great Disinflation’ is under way—and he expects 3 back-to-back interest rate cuts by summer

Goldman’s Jan Hatzius put the odds of a recession at just 15% when much of Wall Street worried about a downturn. Now he’s taking an inflation victory lap.

Fortune

Goldman Sachs’s chief economist says the market may be getting ahead of itself on rate cuts—and decreases won’t come as soon as people hope

"The risk of recession is, in my view, quite low. We're at 15% in the next 12 months."

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Fortune

Veteran market watcher Komal Sri Kumar warns of a ‘cloud of uncertainty’ and makes a bold call: 'My base case is something breaking…in the next 3 months'

Rising interest rates and a shaky commercial real estate sector is weighing on the economy: “You’re operating perennially in a cloud of uncertainty.”

Fortune

Goldman Sachs questions Deutsche Bank and UBS comparisons of the 2020s to other eras

Goldman Sachs's Jan Hatzius and David Kostin outlined during a roundtable why their firm is so optimistic about 2024.

Fortune

CEOs say remote work is a disaster for productivity. Goldman’s chief economist says that can't explain the last 15 years

An NYU economics professor shocked the profession by arguing that “total factor productivity” is linear, not exponential. Jan Hatzius says he's got a point.

Fortune

Goldman Sachs says the odds of a government shutdown are now 90%—and it could last two to three weeks

There have been 14 government shutdowns since 1980, but only three have lasted longer than one week. This time, an extended shutdown could cause more serious economic damage.

Fortune

The odds of a recession are now just 15% because fading inflation and a strong labor market are changing the equation, Goldman Sachs says

Positive inflation and labor data has prompted Goldman Sachs' chief economist to rethink the probability of a recession in the next 12 months.

Fortune

‘Imagine no recession, it’s easy if you try.’ Bank of America flip-flops on its recession call, arguing a ‘soft landing’ is on the way

The investment bank has been predicting a recession since the summer of 2022. A full year later, it’s having second thoughts.

Kiplinger

Why Investors Needn't Worry About U.S. Credit Downgrade

The United States saw its credit rating downgraded for just the second time in history, but experts aren't worried about the long-term damage to stocks.

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