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The Latest Breaking News from Claudia Sahm

PCE data paints a solid picture, but hidden cracks show tariffs quietly squeezing U.S. consumers—and weak job growth could put them over the edge

Never underestimate the U.S. consumer, economists say.

Fortune

A $100 billion mystery is unfolding on tariffs and inflation and economists are cracking the case

The hottest question in economics is why the massive price hikes tariffs were supposed to bring still haven’t materialized halfway through 2025.

Fortune

Hiring slows across US amid uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits has risen to the highest level in eight months

The Independent UK

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US employers added a solid 139,000 jobs in May despite uncertainty over trade wars

U.S. employers slowed hiring last month, but still adding a solid 139,000 jobs amid uncertainty over Trump’s trade wars

The Independent UK

‘The smell of stagflation’ is mounting as Trump’s Liberation Day arrives

Stagflation fears are mounting, warns Deutsche Bank, as Donald Trump's latest tariff announcements tick closer.

Fortune

How were so many economists wrong on whether we’d have a recession? Northern Trust’s Ryan Boyle points to 3 culprits

Recession red flags had a track record that “was never perfect, but they have really failed us during the past two years,” says Boyle.

Fortune

Markets are finally believing Fed chair Jerome Powell will pull off his soft landing

"The general direction of U.S. employment signals an economy very far from 'recession,'" wrote UBS chief economist Paul Donovan.

Fortune

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BofA details clients’ 5 major economic fears—then knocks them all down

“For now, we think the broader macro data flow does not point to recession," Bank of America's economics team wrote Monday.

Fortune

The Fed and chair Powell are 24 hours away from making market-moving news. Here’s what to expect

"The equity markets have remained resilient, particularly favoring value and dividend-paying stocks this quarter. This inclination may gain momentum as the Fed begins to implement rate cuts."

Fortune

What’s a recession – and how can we tell if we’re in one?

This article is part of The Conversation’s “Business Basics” series where we ask experts to discuss key concepts in business, economics and finance.

The Conversation

What Is the Sahm Rule, and What Does It Mean?

This will be the first significant test of the Sahm rule under relatively normal circumstances.

Kiplinger

Unemployment is rising and Australia’s economy is weak – but don’t hit the recession alarm just yet

Are we headed for a recession? The answer is complex – although for young people it already feels like one

The Guardian - AU

Top economist: More people are looking for a job, but not because they were laid off

The unemployment rate reflects the fact that the number of workers is growing, not that more people are losing their jobs.

Fortune

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means

While warning about a 25 percent chance of an economic downturn, Goldman Sachs said the US economy remains “fine overall,” and that the recession risk is “limited”

The Independent UK

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The Guardian - UK

Warning signs of US recession may be bad news for Kamala Harris

Cracks in labour market provide Trump with evidence for his message that Biden has been disaster for the economy

Fortune

Powell faces a market mutiny if he doesn't make a September rate cut—Wall Street has 'locked in' timings after unemployment concerns

"The bottom line is that the weaker-than-expected July employment report led us to change our baseline expectation for the first Fed to September."

Fortune

Despite the stock crash, the AI-fueled bubble will soon regain momentum, economist says

Capital Economics said a recession is unlikely and growth will even reaccelerate after a soft patch in the second half of this year.

Al Jazeera

Is the US headed for a recession?

The unexpected rise of US unemployment rate to a nearly three-year high has shaken the market and split economists.

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Fortune

Weak jobs report shows 'there’s a strong case' for Fed rate cuts before next meeting, economist says

"From a risk management perspective we think there’s a strong case to act before September 18th."

The Independent UK

Unemployment rise spurs fears of slowdown, yet recession signals have been wrong — so far

A surprising rise in the unemployment rate last month has rattled financial markets and set off new worries about the threat of a recession — but it could also prove to be a false alarm

Fortune

This accurate recession indicator is flashing red, but the ‘Sahm rule’ creator says ‘this time really could be different’

“I am not concerned that, at this moment, we are in a recession,” Claudia Sahm told Fortune, adding that “no one should be in panic mode today, though it appears some might be.”

Reason

What's the Sahm Rule? Alarming Jobs Report Raises Recession Risk.

A key indicator has predicted every recession since 1970, and the alarm just sounded.

The Independent UK

US added just 114,000 jobs in July, unemployment rate hits 4.3% as interest rates take economic toll

U.S. hiring decelerated sharply last month in the face of high interest rates as employers added a weak 114,000 jobs

Fortune

Wall Street is worrying about the ‘Sahm Rule,’ which predicts recessions—but its creator is not, yet

Claudia Sahm is cautioning against reading too much into her famous rule that suggests the U.S. is on the brink of a recession.

The Guardian - AU

A second Trump presidency would send Australia down a dark economic path. Here’s how it might play out

Under Trump’s tariff plans, our GDP would take a hit amid a nightmare trade war – and while we’re at it, forget emissions reductions or global agreements

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