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The Latest Breaking News from Paul Donovan

A ‘perfect alignment’ across markets has Wall Street 100% convinced of a rate cut

Job weakness and softer inflation data push markets to fully price in a September Fed cut, but Powell’s decision could spark volatility if he resists.

Fortune

Trump’s threat to fire another Fed member has Wall Street weighing the price of ‘wrecking institutions’ with ‘scapegoat economics’

While UBS’s Paul Donovan told clients the attempt was “completely unprecedented,” Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel argued her ousting adds “noise but little substance” compared with the Fed’s longer-term policy pivots.

Fortune

'Lexx' appeal: A deeply underrated sci-fi classic that was equal parts Farscape, Star Wars, and Red Dwarf

A band of misfits aboard a stolen planet-killing starship, the wild, weird Lexx is the best 90s sci-fi show you've never seen.

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Jamie Dimon says Trump was 'right to chicken out' on tariffs but markets are getting too complacent

Jamie Dimon warns markets are growing complacent on Trump’s tariff threats, as UBS's Paul Donovan flags a paradox fueling investor overconfidence.

Fortune

‘Masterful inactivity’ reigned at Fed’s latest meeting—but notes reveal more officials are coming around to Donald Trump’s way of thinking

Fed officials are increasingly split on rate cuts, though UBS’s Paul Donovan says their indecision currently amounts to little more than “masterful inactivity.”

Fortune

White knuckles and 'massive unknowns' ahead of Trump’s July 9th tariff deadline

Trump’s next moves could impact how countries go about the next round of trade talks

Fortune

Wealthy people are going to keep getting richer, say analysts, but a rise in 'luxury shame' will mean they'll try to hide it

In the financial crisis American consumers stopped showing their wealth off because they were “ashamed,” one expert tells Fortune, and this may come around again.

Fortune

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Stock market fear index spikes after Trump's war threats

Here’s a snapshot of the action this morning prior to the opening bell in New York.

Fortune

U.S. data quality has been declining for years. Now Trump’s cutbacks are leading economists to question its figures

More squishy data could lead to errors for businesses, investors, and even the Federal Reserve.

Fortune

Wall Street’s massive swings signal investors are now ‘too optimistic’ about Trump’s tariff agenda, warns UBS

“These retreats are so frequent that investors should rationally expect them. So why do markets still react to the initial announcements?” UBS’s Paul Donovan asked.

Fortune

Trump’s ‘art of the retreat’ may signal he’s setting Powell up to take the fall for economic turmoil

Trump’s tactical retreat on key points like Fed Chair Powell and trade negotiations with China signals a change within the White House—potentially lining up a scapegoat if its policies fall flat.

Fortune

Could Trump’s tariffs give a green light for corporate profiteering?

Expectations of inflation, and recent waves of price rises, could be self-fulfilling and fuel ‘greedflation’ – and it may not only apply to US consumers

The Guardian - UK

Musk says Trump top tariff advisor is a ‘moron.’ The White House says it won’t interfere: ‘Boys will be boys’

Wall Street wants clear leadership from the White House. Instead, it’s getting infighting and a response that “boys will be boys.”

Fortune

U.S. manufacturers are on edge as Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs loom: ‘We need to make decisions, but the ball is constantly moving’

As “Liberation Day” approaches, one firm said it had not experienced this level of uncertainty in nearly 50 years of doing business.

Fortune

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Fortune

Trump’s tariffs have Wall Street analysts distraught

The consensus? Tariffs are mostly bad news.

Fortune

Wall Street worried that new tariffs will turn the Trump bump into a slump

Even unfilled tariff threats are beginning to alter consumer and business behavior, with markets stumbling on news of yet more sanctions on China.

Fortune

Stocks fall as market awaits Nvidia earnings, inflation data

The impacts of the Trump administration’s moves with tariffs and mass federal layoffs remain huge wild cards.

Fortune

Trump tariffs won’t just make imports pricier — car insurance costs will go up too

A tariff on autos would drive up already-inflated insurance costs.

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Fortune

Markets are starting to view Trump as more of a ‘pushover’ on tariffs than a protectionist, UBS economist says

President Donald Trump announced his administration will study reciprocal tariffs, but stopped short of implementing them at this time.

Fortune

Rate cut hopes are fading fast as inflation data and record egg prices make 'very uncomfortable’ reading for Jerome Powell

Data isn’t stacking up for a Fed rate cut, multiple regional presidents have hinted, as January’s CPI report makes for “uncomfortable” reading for Powell.

Fortune

UBS chief economist says Democrats in particular are panic-buying right now because they are ‘fearful’ about Trump’s tariffs spiking prices

Consumers are getting ahead of price spikes and buying now as tariff concerns raise inflations expectations.

Fortune

Trump crying wolf over tariffs has already convinced Wall Street that threats will be short-lived

An eleventh-hour deal achieved President Trump’s political aims, but Wall Street remains concerned that tariffs will become a permanent threat in negotiations.

Fortune

Tariffs are exactly what Trump promised—the market ‘completely underpriced risks,’ says Deutsche Bank economist

Deutsche Bank has a wake-up call for analysts who denied Trump would deliver on tax rhetoric—but UBS is questioning how quickly the White House may retreat.

Fortune

Markets are banking on Trump's pledges not graduating into policy

"The potential for market moves therefore depends ... on any emerging signals about how dramatic those policies might turn out to be," said UBS's chief economist Paul Donovan.

Fortune

Markets are finally believing Fed chair Jerome Powell will pull off his soft landing

"The general direction of U.S. employment signals an economy very far from 'recession,'" wrote UBS chief economist Paul Donovan.

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