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The Latest Breaking News from Paul Donovan

Gas prices spiral over $4 as U.S.-Iran war heats up again, amid warning that 'economic gravity' will soon catch up to American families

"In the Wile E. Coyote scenario, economic gravity eventually exerts itself," wrote UBS's Paul Donovan this morning.

Fortune

America added more than 1,200 millionaires per day in 2025, but the heyday of the 'everyday millionaire' is already over

The stock market made a record number of people millionaires in 2025. But the real wealth action was happening one tier up.

Fortune

‘It’s not the old Labour we had’: Voters feel abandoned in red wall town eyed up by Nigel Farage

A former industrial powerhouse and part of one of the Labour Party’s most loyal regions, St Helens could be falling into Nigel Farage’s hands, as Dan Haygarth finds out

The Independent UK

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Wall Street is 'bewitched' by positive news on Iran, says UBS, with investors wanting to believe the war is over as opposed to verifiable information

"Markets are not reacting to information; they are generally reacting to social media posts and headlines—even if those posts or headlines are fake news or contradictory," UBS's Donovan noted this morning.

Fortune

People are getting fake news on their phones and that’s increasing the risk of a market crash

The great smartphone panic of 2026 builds off the “dumb money” revolution of the past five years. Now viral doomerism is threatening the real economy.

Fortune

Goldman Sachs says U.S. consumers are stuck with higher prices even after Supreme Court ruling opens door to $180 billion in tariff refunds

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed doubt that households would receive any money raised from tariffs: “I got a feeling the American people won’t see it.”

Fortune

Trump may have shot himself in the foot at the Fed, as Powell could stay on while Miran resigns from White House post

The Democrat roadblock was expected but “raises the prospect of Chair Powell staying on as FOMC chair (not Board of Governors chair) beyond May,” noted UBS.

Fortune

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The creator economy may be bigger than we think, and taxing side hustles will be a growing issue as an OnlyFans 'sin tax' is debated

"The side hustle has economic value, but the work is rarely recognized," Donovan said.

Fortune

'Military adventures cost money': Economists' key concern about Trump's Venezuela action is how it weakens $38 trillion national debt picture

“What my concern about Venezuela is that…it’s just confirming that the United States isn’t a very reliable partner.”

Fortune

401(k) Millionaires Surge, Leaving You Asking 'Where's My $1 Million?'

Fidelity hits a record 654,000 retirement millionaires amid soaring stocks, but UBS says many savers spend like the middle class. What does it really take to join the elite club?

International Business Times UK

Fed’s expected rate cut today is less about stimulating the economy and more about protecting the jobs market from ‘shattering’

A cut is something of an “insurance policy against a shattering of the U.S. labor market,” UBS chief economist Paul Donovan said.

Fortune

‘This Fed went to sleep,’ says top economist Mohamed El-Erian, who wants to see central bank reformed and presidents to ‘cool it’

Mohamed El-Erian calls for a visionary, less reactive Fed just as Trump settles on his next chair, with Hassett leading and independence fears resurfacing.

Fortune

National debt crisis will be averted by governments 'mobilizing and encouraging' private wealth to fill their budget holes, says UBS

"Governments have long mobilized private wealth to support public finances. There are several approaches," UBS chief economist, Paul Donovan, outlined in a recent call.

Fortune

Wall Street is on tenterhooks over the Fed’s ‘rare, genuinely suspenseful’ December meeting, because the committee itself doesn’t know what to make of the data—or of one another

A divided Fed meets amid mixed jobs and inflation signals, leaving Chair Jerome Powell with a suspenseful December.

Fortune

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Fortune

'If voters feel like things aren't working, they fire their politicians': K-shaped economy math shows why Trump’s base feels betrayed

The president’s approval ratings have reached their lowest since he took office in January.

Fortune

Why 'affordability' is every politicians' nightmare: The anger that gets you elected and refuses to go away

The Fed measures inflation "at the time it's felt by the consumer," The Amherst Group's Sean Dobson told Fortune, different from measuring affordability.

Fortune

For now, data ignorance is bliss on Wall Street as investors warned not to rely too heavily on private surveys

"The danger with this data is that its message will be given unwarranted credibility by the absence of proper economic data," said UBS's chief economist, Paul Donovan.

Evening Standard

Drones and AI-powered CCTV: Inside the battle to stop trespassers causing chaos on London's railways

Revealed: how BTP and Network Rail are fighting back against a problem that causes more train cancellations and delays than signal failures

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Fortune

Trump shutting down trade talks with Canada could give Beijing another advantage

If Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has any frustrations he wants to share about his southern neighbor, he could do so with Chinese President Xi as soon as next week.

Fortune

'Is AI hurting growth?' Top analysts say their clients are starting to worry as the 3-year bull market shows its age

“It seems you can’t go anywhere without talking about AI,” says Aditya Bhave, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Research.

Fortune

By supporting Argentina, the U.S. government hopes to start a domino effect of preventing ‘failed states’ across South America, says Bessent

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hails Javier Milei’s Argentina as a “beacon” for South America, backing it with swap lines while ruling out U.S. cash aid.

Benzinga

Goodwill CEO Says They're Preparing For A Surge Of Jobless Young People Caused By AI. 'It's Going To Hit Low-Wage Workers Especially Hard'

Goodwill Industries is bracing for a wave of unemployed Gen Z workers, CEO Steve Preston recently said, as artificial intelligence makes it harder for young Americans to land jobs.

Fortune

Nearly one in 5 Gen Zers is 'very concerned' that AI will take their job in the next 2 years, Deutsche Bank says. Boomers and Gen X aren't bothered

The (American) kids aren't alright.

Benzinga

Jerome Powell and Economists Agree: Gen Z Faces a Hiring Crisis And That's Not About AI

In 2025, the rising unemployment rate among Americans under 25, specifically recent graduates, has become a significant economic concern. This problem seems to be uniquely American, stemming from a “no hire, no fire” economy, rather than the advent of artificial intelligence (AI).

Fortune

Top economists and Jerome Powell agree that Gen Z's hiring nightmare is real—and it's not about AI eating entry-level jobs

"The U.S. labor market experience is peculiar," UBS' Paul Donovan wrote in a UBS note asking, "the kids are alright?"

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