The Latest Breaking News from Bill Adams

The November jobs report showed unemployment rose to a four-year-high.

Despite a September jobs report that saw the U.S. economy add 119,000 positions—more than double the expectations of forecasters—top economist Justin Wolfers is urging caution, warning that rising unemployment signals it is time for the country to “cut back on the economic junk food.”

Interpreting economic data is challenging on a good day—harder still when crucial reports go missing.

As the U.S. government shutdown suspends Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data releases, including the critical September jobs report scheduled for Friday, the Chicago Fed has stepped in with a final real-time forecast, predicting a steady unemployment rate of 4.34% for September 2025, based on 11 job market indicators.

A surprisingly weak private-sector ADP Employment report, released during an ongoing government shutdown, has intensified fears of a looming economic downturn.

“The consensus has been wrong since January,” Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Sløk wrote on Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve's latest economic projections reveal a surprisingly shallow path for interest rate cuts in 2026, signaling that the policy will remain restrictive as the central bank contends with a resilient economy and sticky inflation.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates on Wednesday at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting for September.

Another down day for Apple held the Dow Jones Industrial Average back, though.