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The Latest Breaking News from Mark Zandi

Mark Zandi warns recession odds are creeping toward 50%, and the Iran war could launch us into economic turmoil by midyear

As oil steadily climbs above $100 per barrel and Iran rejects a U.S. peace proposal, Moody’s chief economist says recession odds are only getting worse.

Fortune

Economists agree: You’re not crazy for feeling like the rich get richer, and the poor are doing worse. Welcome to the 'K-shaped economy'

What was a niche argument about five years ago is suddenly everywhere you look, and it’s taking on the shape of a letter with two jagged edges.

Fortune

Economists are loathe to mention recessions, but odds just hit 49% for the next 12 months according to Moody’s top economist

"If oil prices remain elevated for much longer (weeks and not months), a recession will be difficult to avoid," Zandi said.

Fortune

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Moody's says a US recession is increasingly 'hard to avoid' amid Iran war

Moody’s Analytics model forecasts a 49% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months, the closest probability in years.

Euronews

Ray Dalio Says US Will Lose The War With Iran if It Fails to Break the Strait of Hormuz Blockade

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warns that the United States risks an 'empire-ending' defeat and the collapse of the petrodollar if it fails to break Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

International Business Times UK

Lousy job growth and sky-high gas: Trump’s economy is in crisis and puts his presidency at risk

Moody’s Mark Zandi tells Eric Garcia that high gas prices will make it ‘very difficult to kind of get Americans back thinking, believing or buying into the idea that things were going at all well’

The Independent UK

Top economist says companies are close to a 'Cortes moment' on AI, referencing the conquistador who burned his boats and then invaded Mexico

Moody’s Analytics chief economist warned firms are approaching the point of no return on AI adoption—and the labor market may feel it first.

Fortune

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Your grandparents are the reason the U.S. isn't in a recession right now. That won't last forever

Boomers—particularly wealthy older people—are “driving the train” when it comes to the economy right now, economists told Fortune.

Fortune

People are getting fake news on their phones and that’s increasing the risk of a market crash

The great smartphone panic of 2026 builds off the “dumb money” revolution of the past five years. Now viral doomerism is threatening the real economy.

Fortune

Markets and the economy are ‘increasingly disconnected,’ top economist warns

So much speculation in financial markets does not bode well for an “already vulnerable economy,” Mark Zandi warns.

Fortune

Economy is marginally improving, says the Fed, but only because rich consumers are splurging on luxury items and holidays

The Minneapolis Fed said that while retailers catering to higher-end consumers reported increased sales, those targeted at middle and lower-end consumers are "getting pretty beat up."

Fortune

Trump hails ‘booming investment’ in Detroit while auto manufacturing jobs have fallen every month since Liberation Day

The industrial heartland faces a grim arithmetic: Billions in new investment are pouring in, but the workers are being left behind.

Fortune

A Supreme Court ruling that strikes down Trump's tariffs would be the fastest way to revive the stalling job market, top economist says

Trade-exposed industries suffered steep losses last year. The manufacturing sector, for example, has hemorrhaged 70,000 jobs since April.

Fortune

Sneaking unemployment rate means the U.S. economy is inching closer to a key recession indicator, says Moody’s

“The trends are not our friends here,” said Moody’s economist Cris deRitis.

Fortune

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Fortune

Unemployment hits 4-year high as frozen jobs data shows recession risks getting 'uncomfortably high,' top economist Mark Zandi says

Payroll growth for November came in at a modest 64,000. “There’s just no forward motion,” Moody’s chief economist told Fortune.

Fortune

‘Fodder for a recession’: Top economist Mark Zandi warns about so many Americans ‘already living on the financial edge’ in a K-shaped economy

The latest JOLTS report shows hiring stuck at 3.2% and quits falling again as the Fed prepares to cut rates.

Fortune

Borrowing by AI companies represents a ‘mounting potential threat to the financial system,’ top economist says

“Borrowing by AI companies should be on the radar screen as a mounting potential threat to the financial system and broader economy."

Benzinga

Trump's 'Original Sin' On The Economy Was This, Says Economist Justin Wolfers: 'It Was An Irresponsible Claim At The Time'

Economist Justin Wolfers criticized President Donald Trump’s rhetoric on the rising prices, noting that his promises on the campaign trail were never realistic to begin with.

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Benzinga

Moody's Economist Mark Zandi Blames High Tariffs, Immigration Policy, And Deglobalization For The Nation's 'Serious Affordability Crisis'

Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi recently highlighted the "serious affordability crisis" plaguing the U.S., while citing high tariffs, immigration policy, and deglobalization as the key factors.

Benzinga

Chuck Schumer Says The Only 'Hoax' Is Trump's Repeated Lies About The Economy Amid Soaring Grocery, Housing And Utility Prices: 'We All Feel The Pain'

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) slammed President Donald Trump’s latest claims regarding the economy amid soaring prices of key essentials under his administration.

Benzinga

Moody's Chief Economist Sounds Alarm On AI Over-Investment, Soaring Debt — Says Risks Could Hit Credit Markets, Not Just Investors

As the race for artificial intelligence (AI) dominance accelerates, Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi is sounding the alarm on a growing financial risk that sets the current tech boom apart from the dot-com era: massive corporate debt.

Benzinga

Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi Warns Stock Market Downturn Could 'Knock the Wind Out of' the Wealthy and Trigger Recession

An increasing number of company executives and economists have recently pointed to a widening gap in the economy, where the wealthy drive most economic activity and low-income Americans continue to struggle financially.

Benzinga

Stock Market Today: Nasdaq, S&P 500 Futures Gain Amid December Rate Cut Possibility — Pony AI, Alphabet, Zoom In Focus (UPDATED)

Editor’s Note: The future prices of benchmark tracking ETFs, the earnings and the headline of the story were updated.

Benzinga

Top Economist Warns Of 'Serious Affordability Crisis' Amid Trump Tariffs And Immigration Restrictions — 'Juicing' Inflation

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, has issued a sharp warning regarding the trajectory of the U.S. economy, declaring that it is currently mired in a “serious affordability crisis.”

Fortune

‘It didn’t have to be this way’: Top economist warns affordability crisis will continue as tariffs and immigration crackdown send inflation higher

“Consumer price inflation is near 3%, well above the Fed’s inflation target, and everything points to even higher inflation dead-ahead.”

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