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The Latest Breaking News from Mark Zandi

The global economy has a month—eight weeks at most—to avoid a recession, warns top economist

“The irony in all this is that the U.S., which started the war, does better in relative terms than anybody else because of its energy supplies.”

Fortune

Good news: Rumors of a K-shaped economy have been overblown so far, says Goldman Sachs. Bad news: 2026 is when it will really bite

“There are a lot of people out there who can no longer afford perhaps the most quintessential component of the American Dream, which is property ownership. So they’re being forced to rent, and it’s showing up in prices.”

Fortune

Tariff Refunds Set To Bypass Consumers As Companies Keep Payouts, CFO Survey Finds

Despite possible tariff refunds following court rulings, companies are preparing to retain any repayments rather than pass benefits on to households, according to CFO survey data and economists.

International Business Times

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The job market is so bad, workers now think they have worse odds of finding a role than during the pandemic

Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that Americans are increasingly pessimistic about their job prospects.

Fortune

Top economist Mark Zandi says the indicator that has called every recession since WWII just signaled we're already in one

The Vicious Cycle Index is a recession indicator that takes labor force participation changes into consideration. The top economist at Moody’s Analytics said it’s flashing red.

Fortune

How the Iran war adds to the U.S. K-shaped economy through higher gas prices

Americans could be on the hook for an extra $8 billion in gas prices, and some families will feel it more than others.

Fortune

Worries about global economic pain deepen as the war in Iran drags on

U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran have darkened the outlook for the world economy

The Independent UK

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New York is home to 154 billionaires. Together they're worth $975.7 billion—and some of them are even making $2 million an hour

It would take the typical New York private-sector worker 82,863 years to earn as much as one of the 10 wealthiest billionaires did last year on average, according to a new Oxfam America report.

Fortune

Mark Zandi warns recession odds are creeping toward 50%, and the Iran war could launch us into economic turmoil by midyear

As oil steadily climbs above $100 per barrel and Iran rejects a U.S. peace proposal, Moody’s chief economist says recession odds are only getting worse.

Fortune

Economists agree: You’re not crazy for feeling like the rich get richer, and the poor are doing worse. Welcome to the 'K-shaped economy'

What was a niche argument about five years ago is suddenly everywhere you look, and it’s taking on the shape of a letter with two jagged edges.

Fortune

Economists are loathe to mention recessions, but odds just hit 49% for the next 12 months according to Moody’s top economist

"If oil prices remain elevated for much longer (weeks and not months), a recession will be difficult to avoid," Zandi said.

Fortune

Moody's says a US recession is increasingly 'hard to avoid' amid Iran war

Moody’s Analytics model forecasts a 49% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months, the closest probability in years.

Euronews

Ray Dalio Says US Will Lose The War With Iran if It Fails to Break the Strait of Hormuz Blockade

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warns that the United States risks an 'empire-ending' defeat and the collapse of the petrodollar if it fails to break Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

International Business Times UK

Lousy job growth and sky-high gas: Trump’s economy is in crisis and puts his presidency at risk

Moody’s Mark Zandi tells Eric Garcia that high gas prices will make it ‘very difficult to kind of get Americans back thinking, believing or buying into the idea that things were going at all well’

The Independent UK

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Fortune

Top economist says companies are close to a 'Cortes moment' on AI, referencing the conquistador who burned his boats and then invaded Mexico

Moody’s Analytics chief economist warned firms are approaching the point of no return on AI adoption—and the labor market may feel it first.

Fortune

Your grandparents are the reason the U.S. isn't in a recession right now. That won't last forever

Boomers—particularly wealthy older people—are “driving the train” when it comes to the economy right now, economists told Fortune.

Fortune

People are getting fake news on their phones and that’s increasing the risk of a market crash

The great smartphone panic of 2026 builds off the “dumb money” revolution of the past five years. Now viral doomerism is threatening the real economy.

Fortune

Markets and the economy are ‘increasingly disconnected,’ top economist warns

So much speculation in financial markets does not bode well for an “already vulnerable economy,” Mark Zandi warns.

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Fortune

Economy is marginally improving, says the Fed, but only because rich consumers are splurging on luxury items and holidays

The Minneapolis Fed said that while retailers catering to higher-end consumers reported increased sales, those targeted at middle and lower-end consumers are "getting pretty beat up."

Fortune

Trump hails ‘booming investment’ in Detroit while auto manufacturing jobs have fallen every month since Liberation Day

The industrial heartland faces a grim arithmetic: Billions in new investment are pouring in, but the workers are being left behind.

Fortune

A Supreme Court ruling that strikes down Trump's tariffs would be the fastest way to revive the stalling job market, top economist says

Trade-exposed industries suffered steep losses last year. The manufacturing sector, for example, has hemorrhaged 70,000 jobs since April.

Fortune

Sneaking unemployment rate means the U.S. economy is inching closer to a key recession indicator, says Moody’s

“The trends are not our friends here,” said Moody’s economist Cris deRitis.

Fortune

Unemployment hits 4-year high as frozen jobs data shows recession risks getting 'uncomfortably high,' top economist Mark Zandi says

Payroll growth for November came in at a modest 64,000. “There’s just no forward motion,” Moody’s chief economist told Fortune.

Fortune

‘Fodder for a recession’: Top economist Mark Zandi warns about so many Americans ‘already living on the financial edge’ in a K-shaped economy

The latest JOLTS report shows hiring stuck at 3.2% and quits falling again as the Fed prepares to cut rates.

Fortune

Borrowing by AI companies represents a ‘mounting potential threat to the financial system,’ top economist says

“Borrowing by AI companies should be on the radar screen as a mounting potential threat to the financial system and broader economy."

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