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The Latest Breaking News from Capital Economics

Strong wage growth gives Bank of England interest rate dilemma

Quick cuts unlikely because persistently high pay rises will probably be deemed inflationary

The Guardian - UK

What does Trump really want from Canada and Mexico? It may come down to oil security and bringing both countries 'under the US's thumb'

"This means both a reliable, unimpeded flow of oil and natural resources from Canada and a safer Mexico. And that means both countries under the US’s thumb."

Fortune

China Holds Out Hope Last-minute Deal Can Avert US Trade War

China's new tariffs on US imports like oil, coal and cars are relatively modest in scale, suggesting that Beijing is hoping for a last-minute deal but also giving them the option to inflict more pain if needed, analysts say.

International Business Times

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What Would Trump Tariffs Mean For Key Trade Partner Mexico?

US President Donald Trump has threatened to slap a 25-percent tariff on Mexican goods on February 1, a move that analysts say would deal a heavy blow to Latin America's second-largest economy.

International Business Times

FTSE 100 share index records biggest weekly loss in a year, as US shutdown fears hit markets – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

The Guardian - UK

Why it’s unfair to compare the current market movement to catastrophic Truss mini-Budget

ANALYSIS : Ignore the comparisons, writes Howard Mustoe – any suggestions that market concerns over Rachel Reeves’s Budget bear any similarity to the chaos that followed Liz Truss’s economic disaster are wide of the mark

The Independent UK

Eurozone Economy Grows Faster Than Expected

The eurozone economy grew more than expected in the third quarter, official data showed Wednesday, thanks to Germany which defied expectations and dodged a recession.

International Business Times

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Fortune 500 Europe: How Germany is flirting with long-term irrelevance

Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for Germany’s economy. How can it turn things around?

Fortune

China’s exports slow sharply in September, adding to worries over the economy

China’s exports slowed sharply in September as global demand weakened, adding to worries over how to recharge growth in the world's second-largest economy

The Independent UK

Andreessen Horowitz shutters its ‘Wall Street South’ office after 2 years because nobody was showing up

Miami is a winner in the office space slump, but its triumph wasn’t enough to stop Andreessen Horowitz from ditching its office in the city.

Fortune

Interest rate cuts are now all but guaranteed after dovish Fed meeting, experts say

“The Fed minutes removed all doubt about a September rate cut,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group.

Fortune

The latest drop in mortgage rates isn’t enough to bring sellers and buyers off the sidelines

“It seems that borrowing costs would have to fall below 5% to see a full recovery in home buying,” a Capital Economics economist wrote.

Fortune

In the office space slump, Miami is winning

Big tech and billionaires are pushing people back to the office in Miami.

Fortune

Despite the stock crash, the AI-fueled bubble will soon regain momentum, economist says

Capital Economics said a recession is unlikely and growth will even reaccelerate after a soft patch in the second half of this year.

Fortune

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Fortune

Sunbelt boomtowns are cooling off, but the sun-soaked region will reclaim its hot status

More than 2 million single-family homes have been built in the South since January 2021, more than four times the number completed in the Northeast, according to a Capital Economics economist.

Top News

Capital Economics: Minimal Economic Impact Expected From IT Disruption

Capital Economics' early assessment indicates minimal macroeconomic impact of recent disruption.

Fortune

The typical monthly housing payment just fell from an all-time high

In a rare bit of good news, mortgage rates are the lowest they’ve been in months.

Fortune

Home prices are still sky-high, but competition isn’t as fierce, as the frenzied housing market slowly rebalances

In some ways the housing market is beginning to feel more like it did before the pandemic.

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Fortune

If mortgage rates stay above 6.5%, ‘the chances of an imminent recovery are slim’ for housing demand, Capital Economics says

Mortgage applications and sales are weak, to say the least, off the back of dampening demand.

Fortune

Home prices just broke another all-time high. But things might be changing as price inflation slows

For the first time in close to a year, the pace of annual home price inflation dipped. Still, home prices and mortgage rates are considerably higher than before the pandemic.

Fortune

The housing market’s pivotal spring selling season is coming to an end—not with a bang, but with a whimper

Capital Economics says “mortgage demand and sales activity won’t recover until rates fall meaningfully below 7%.” The research firm expects that to happen only later this year.

The Independent UK

UK inflation predicted to drop close to Bank of England’s 2% target

Forecasters think inflation will drop to 2.1 per cent for April

Fortune

The incredible surge in home prices is set to continue in Southern metros

Home price appreciation superiority comes down to stronger employment growth and affordability, according to Capital Economics.

Evening Standard

The Chancellor will be economical with the truth in the Budget

City Voices: Tough choices await after the election

The Guardian - UK

Governments facing wipeout will always cut taxes but there are better uses for UK’s £20bn windfall

Instead, Jeremy Hunt could shelve plan to cut public investment or repair welfare safety net

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