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The Latest Breaking News from Capital Economics

The Chancellor will be economical with the truth in the Budget

City Voices: Tough choices await after the election

Evening Standard

Governments facing wipeout will always cut taxes but there are better uses for UK’s £20bn windfall

Instead, Jeremy Hunt could shelve plan to cut public investment or repair welfare safety net

The Guardian - UK

Falling mortgage rates don’t mean falling home prices, Capital Economics says, revising its forecast up for the year

The research firm’s property economist, Thomas Ryan, called its house price forecast “well above the consensus,” in a new research note.

Fortune

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Eurozone Inflation Rises To 2.9% In December

The annual rate of inflation in the eurozone rose to 2.9 percent in December mainly due to energy costs, official data showed Friday.

International Business Times

Stocks are suffering from a New Year’s ‘hangover’ for 3 reasons, Capital Economics says

After a bullish 2023 and a big holiday season, the market is shaking off a few jitters in early January. A bit too much exuberance?

Fortune

Commercial real estate is coming off a half-trillion-dollar wipeout. It'll be a lot more complex than ‘mass obsolescence' next year, industry watchers say

While the commercial real estate market is facing substantial headwinds, it’s far from collapsing. But it’s still a rough road ahead, particularly for the office sector.

Fortune

Fitch Ratings says U.S. homes are ‘overvalued’ by nearly 10%—but homebuyers shouldn’t expect relief anytime soon

"Home prices keep marching higher," NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement, arguing that "only a dramatic rise in supply will dampen price appreciation."

Fortune

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Commercial real estate values will suffer a $480 billion wipeout next year—and that’s following a $590 billion loss in 2023, research firm says

Here’s a closer look at the carnage, according to the firm’s recently published 2024 commercial property outlook.

Fortune

It’s ‘extremely likely’ we’ve seen mortgage rates peak, Capital Economics says, and mortgage demand is starting to recover

Capital Economics projects 7% mortgage rates in the coming weeks.

Fortune

Ed Yardeni says China’s aging population could make it ‘the world’s largest nursing home’—and the resulting economic depression may help the U.S.

“China’s economy is in a property-led and fertility-led depression,” Yardeni wrote, adding that this “benefits countries that import Chinese goods at depressed prices.”

Fortune

Autumn statement: where might Jeremy Hunt spend his windfall?

The chancellor is estimated to have billions to play with and has a range of options from lowering income tax to cutting inheritance tax

The Guardian - UK

Housing math just isn’t mathing, a Fed president says, ripping into NIMBYism and homes that are ‘increasingly unattainable for too many workers'

Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, sees math that doesn't add up for too many—and he thinks "NIMBYism is real."

Fortune

The mortgage rate shock hitting the housing market has years left to run, Capital Economics says

In fact, we may never see pandemic-era mortgage rates again, other experts say.

Fortune

If you own an apartment in Seattle, your value could crater by over 30%, Capital Economics says. But renters could finally catch a break

West coast markets will see "the greatest pain," the research firm found, and Seattle apartment vacancies will see "a huge increase," doubling by 2025.

Fortune

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The Guardian - UK

UK retail sector may be in recession before key Christmas sales season

Mild weather in September and cost of living crisis lead to reduction in spending

The Guardian - UK

US inflation sticks at 3.7%; UK recession fears linger despite August growth; Ikea to cut prices – as it happened

UK services sector lifts economy back to growth in August, but BoE policymaker Swati Dhingra warns that economy is flatlining

The Guardian - UK

Four charged with fraud over Patisserie Valerie collapse; UK GDP shrinks 0.5% in July – as it happened

All three main sectors of the economy in decline after strikes by doctors, radiographers and teachers, while construction and retail hit by wet weather

Fortune

BRICS just invited 6 nations including Saudi Arabia and Iran to join—here's why it increases the prospect of dollar replacement

The idea of creating a BRICS common currency to rival the dollar has long been on the agenda of the emerging-market nations in the bloc.

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Fortune

San Francisco's office sector is at the epicenter of the crash—this research firm predicts values there will fall at least 40% by 2025

Capital Economics forecasts that San Francisco office values will drop 40%, at the very least, in the next couple of years.

The Independent UK

China's July exports tumble by double digits, adding to pressure to shore up flagging economy

China's exports tumbled by double digits in July, adding to pressure on the ruling Communist Party to reverse an economic slump

The Independent UK

When will interest rates fall? Experts warn of ‘more pain to swallow’ after latest hike

Mortgage rates could remain elevated ‘indefinitely’, analyst says

The Independent UK

Skepticism prevails as Chinese leaders promise to back private businesses to spur slowing economy

Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s government is promising to drag the economy out of a crisis of confidence aggravated by tensions with Washington, wilting exports, job losses and anxiety among foreign companies about an expanded anti-spying law

Fortune

Commercial real estate may not recover until 2040

Capital Economics's Kiran Raichura predicts that office values will sink by 35% in the next three years, and the sector might not recover until 2040.

Fortune

Property economist predicts 35% fall in office values by end of 2025, anticipates over 17-year recovery: 'We definitely think the office sector is crashing'

“The realization that the market needs to reprice substantially has driven us to make a big downgrade in our forecast,” says Capital Economics' Kiran Raichura.

The Guardian - UK

Eurozone inflation drops; UK recession fears linger; Apple hits $3trn valuation – as it happened

Eurozone price pressures have eased, although core inflation has risen, as economists warn UK recession risk has not vanished

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