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The Latest Breaking News from Capital Economics

The latest drop in mortgage rates isn’t enough to bring sellers and buyers off the sidelines

“It seems that borrowing costs would have to fall below 5% to see a full recovery in home buying,” a Capital Economics economist wrote.

Fortune

In the office space slump, Miami is winning

Big tech and billionaires are pushing people back to the office in Miami.

Fortune

Despite the stock crash, the AI-fueled bubble will soon regain momentum, economist says

Capital Economics said a recession is unlikely and growth will even reaccelerate after a soft patch in the second half of this year.

Fortune

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Sunbelt boomtowns are cooling off, but the sun-soaked region will reclaim its hot status

More than 2 million single-family homes have been built in the South since January 2021, more than four times the number completed in the Northeast, according to a Capital Economics economist.

Fortune

Capital Economics: Minimal Economic Impact Expected From IT Disruption

Capital Economics' early assessment indicates minimal macroeconomic impact of recent disruption.

Top News

The typical monthly housing payment just fell from an all-time high

In a rare bit of good news, mortgage rates are the lowest they’ve been in months.

Fortune

Home prices are still sky-high, but competition isn’t as fierce, as the frenzied housing market slowly rebalances

In some ways the housing market is beginning to feel more like it did before the pandemic.

Fortune

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If mortgage rates stay above 6.5%, ‘the chances of an imminent recovery are slim’ for housing demand, Capital Economics says

Mortgage applications and sales are weak, to say the least, off the back of dampening demand.

Fortune

Home prices just broke another all-time high. But things might be changing as price inflation slows

For the first time in close to a year, the pace of annual home price inflation dipped. Still, home prices and mortgage rates are considerably higher than before the pandemic.

Fortune

The housing market’s pivotal spring selling season is coming to an end—not with a bang, but with a whimper

Capital Economics says “mortgage demand and sales activity won’t recover until rates fall meaningfully below 7%.” The research firm expects that to happen only later this year.

Fortune

UK inflation predicted to drop close to Bank of England’s 2% target

Forecasters think inflation will drop to 2.1 per cent for April

The Independent UK

The incredible surge in home prices is set to continue in Southern metros

Home price appreciation superiority comes down to stronger employment growth and affordability, according to Capital Economics.

Fortune

The Chancellor will be economical with the truth in the Budget

City Voices: Tough choices await after the election

Evening Standard

Governments facing wipeout will always cut taxes but there are better uses for UK’s £20bn windfall

Instead, Jeremy Hunt could shelve plan to cut public investment or repair welfare safety net

The Guardian - UK

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Fortune

Falling mortgage rates don’t mean falling home prices, Capital Economics says, revising its forecast up for the year

The research firm’s property economist, Thomas Ryan, called its house price forecast “well above the consensus,” in a new research note.

International Business Times

Eurozone Inflation Rises To 2.9% In December

The annual rate of inflation in the eurozone rose to 2.9 percent in December mainly due to energy costs, official data showed Friday.

Fortune

Stocks are suffering from a New Year’s ‘hangover’ for 3 reasons, Capital Economics says

After a bullish 2023 and a big holiday season, the market is shaking off a few jitters in early January. A bit too much exuberance?

Fortune

Commercial real estate is coming off a half-trillion-dollar wipeout. It'll be a lot more complex than ‘mass obsolescence' next year, industry watchers say

While the commercial real estate market is facing substantial headwinds, it’s far from collapsing. But it’s still a rough road ahead, particularly for the office sector.

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Fortune

Fitch Ratings says U.S. homes are ‘overvalued’ by nearly 10%—but homebuyers shouldn’t expect relief anytime soon

"Home prices keep marching higher," NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement, arguing that "only a dramatic rise in supply will dampen price appreciation."

Fortune

Commercial real estate values will suffer a $480 billion wipeout next year—and that’s following a $590 billion loss in 2023, research firm says

Here’s a closer look at the carnage, according to the firm’s recently published 2024 commercial property outlook.

Fortune

It’s ‘extremely likely’ we’ve seen mortgage rates peak, Capital Economics says, and mortgage demand is starting to recover

Capital Economics projects 7% mortgage rates in the coming weeks.

Fortune

Ed Yardeni says China’s aging population could make it ‘the world’s largest nursing home’—and the resulting economic depression may help the U.S.

“China’s economy is in a property-led and fertility-led depression,” Yardeni wrote, adding that this “benefits countries that import Chinese goods at depressed prices.”

The Guardian - UK

Autumn statement: where might Jeremy Hunt spend his windfall?

The chancellor is estimated to have billions to play with and has a range of options from lowering income tax to cutting inheritance tax

Fortune

Housing math just isn’t mathing, a Fed president says, ripping into NIMBYism and homes that are ‘increasingly unattainable for too many workers'

Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, sees math that doesn't add up for too many—and he thinks "NIMBYism is real."

Fortune

The mortgage rate shock hitting the housing market has years left to run, Capital Economics says

In fact, we may never see pandemic-era mortgage rates again, other experts say.

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