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The Latest Breaking News from Nate Silver

Kamala Harris the slight favourite to win US election as she narrowly leads in key states

The US presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49.3–46.0 – a slight widening of the competition since last Monday, when Harris led Trump by 49.2–46.2.

The Conversation

More Vance Than Anyone Could Ever Need

Plus: Long live Eric Adams, Electoral College bias, and more...

Reason

Joe Biden's Fact-Check-Free Interview on The View

His polling was not "always in range" of beating Donald Trump.

Reason

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Harris’ post-debate gains sustained in US polls, but Republicans likely to gain Senate control

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49.2–46.2. In my previous US politics article last Wednesday, Harris led Trump by 48.9–46.0.

The Conversation

Leading pollster warns Americans ‘should make contingency plans’ ahead of possible Trump win

Outcome of 2024 White House race is still a ‘toss-up’, Nate Silver says

The Independent UK

‘People should be making their contingency plans, like, right away’: America’s leading forecaster on the chances of a Trump win

Nate Silver’s election model is once again being pored over by millions of anxious voters. The gambler turned statistician talks about the race for White House, the risk-takers redefining our culture, and the probability of God

The Guardian - UK

Harris gains in post-debate US national polls, but will her gains be sustained?

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.9–46.0. In my previous US politics article on September 9, Harris led Trump by 48.7–46.2.

The Conversation

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NFL Power Rankings: Straddling the Line Between Seeing and Believing

Two games aren’t enough to completely dispose of preseason expectations, but it’s enough to reexamine what we thought we knew.

Sports Illustrated

Election forecasters explain Trump odds

Election prediction models are not like polls — and Silver's Trump odds are not all that different from others

Salon

Harris up in first post-debate poll

The Reuters poll showed Kamala Harris getting the better part of a 47-42 split amongst registered voters

Salon

Feline frenzy: could cats swing the US election?

From JD Vance’s ‘childless cat ladies’ comment to the sign-off in Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris, kitties are front and centre in this campaign. Will cat-lovers help win it for the Democrats?

The Guardian - UK

Wednesday briefing: Trump takes the bait on night that could transform the presidential race

In today’s newsletter: His advisors wanted him to tie Harris to the Biden administration – but instead he lost his temper. Here are the key moments

The Guardian - UK

Goldman Sachs says Harris has a slight edge over Trump but it all comes down to Georgia

The investment bank considers Georgia the “tipping-point state” in the November election.

Fortune

Neck and Neck

Plus: Baby showers for frozen eggs, Orban pulls an Abbott, China's economic woes, and more...

Reason

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The Conversation

Harris’ lead dips in national US polls and it’s very close in the key states

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.7–46.2. In my previous US politics article on August 30, Harris led Trump by 48.8–45.0.

International Business Times

Two Insistent Predictions In The 2024 Presidential Race, Two Different Winners

Nate Silver says Donald Trump appears to be pulling ahead, while Allan Lichtman predicts victory for Kamala Harris

Salon

Nate Silver gets heat for election model

X users say the FiveThirtyEight founder made some dubious data choices to boost Trump

Reason

Kamala Harris Can't Stick to Her Story

Plus: Dutch housing policy makes literally no sense, Israel-Palestine gets litigated on campus (again), and more...

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The Guardian - US

Trump lobs same insults at Harris and Walz in Pennsylvania town hall

Ex-president repeats false claims to Sean Hannity of asylum seekers and crime and says: ‘We’re going to heal our world’

Reason

A Very Tight Race

Plus: J.D. Vance shouldn't be near podcasts, Trump takes on marijuana laws, and more...

The Conversation

Harris’ win probability falls slightly after Democratic convention and Kennedy withdrawal

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.8–45.0. In my previous US politics article last Sunday, Harris led Trump by 48.8–44.8.

Reason

Kyla Scanlon: What's Actually Wrong With the Economy?

Economist and author Kyla Scanlon discusses inflation, economic narratives, and the housing market.

The Conversation

Harris gains in US polls during Democratic convention; Labor thumped in NT election

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.8–44.8. In my previous US politics article last Monday, Harris led Trump by 47.1–44.6.

Fortune

In election race, prediction markets are challenging traditional polling

Before scientific polling, newspapers relied on betting markets to predict the outcome of elections, often with remarkable accuracy.

The Conversation

Kamala Harris’ polls surge stalls ahead of Democratic National Convention

The US presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 47.1–44.6% with 4.2% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. In my previous US politics article last Wednesday, Harris led Trump by 46.8–43.7%.

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