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The Latest Breaking News from Nate Silver

Harris up in first post-debate poll

The Reuters poll showed Kamala Harris getting the better part of a 47-42 split amongst registered voters

Salon

Feline frenzy: could cats swing the US election?

From JD Vance’s ‘childless cat ladies’ comment to the sign-off in Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris, kitties are front and centre in this campaign. Will cat-lovers help win it for the Democrats?

The Guardian - UK

Wednesday briefing: Trump takes the bait on night that could transform the presidential race

In today’s newsletter: His advisors wanted him to tie Harris to the Biden administration – but instead he lost his temper. Here are the key moments

The Guardian - UK

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Goldman Sachs says Harris has a slight edge over Trump but it all comes down to Georgia

The investment bank considers Georgia the “tipping-point state” in the November election.

Fortune

Neck and Neck

Plus: Baby showers for frozen eggs, Orban pulls an Abbott, China's economic woes, and more...

Reason

Harris’ lead dips in national US polls and it’s very close in the key states

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.7–46.2. In my previous US politics article on August 30, Harris led Trump by 48.8–45.0.

The Conversation

Two Insistent Predictions In The 2024 Presidential Race, Two Different Winners

Nate Silver says Donald Trump appears to be pulling ahead, while Allan Lichtman predicts victory for Kamala Harris

International Business Times

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Nate Silver gets heat for election model

X users say the FiveThirtyEight founder made some dubious data choices to boost Trump

Salon

Kamala Harris Can't Stick to Her Story

Plus: Dutch housing policy makes literally no sense, Israel-Palestine gets litigated on campus (again), and more...

Reason

Trump lobs same insults at Harris and Walz in Pennsylvania town hall

Ex-president repeats false claims to Sean Hannity of asylum seekers and crime and says: ‘We’re going to heal our world’

The Guardian - US

A Very Tight Race

Plus: J.D. Vance shouldn't be near podcasts, Trump takes on marijuana laws, and more...

Reason

Harris’ win probability falls slightly after Democratic convention and Kennedy withdrawal

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.8–45.0. In my previous US politics article last Sunday, Harris led Trump by 48.8–44.8.

The Conversation

Kyla Scanlon: What's Actually Wrong With the Economy?

Economist and author Kyla Scanlon discusses inflation, economic narratives, and the housing market.

Reason

Harris gains in US polls during Democratic convention; Labor thumped in NT election

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.8–44.8. In my previous US politics article last Monday, Harris led Trump by 47.1–44.6.

The Conversation

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Fortune

In election race, prediction markets are challenging traditional polling

Before scientific polling, newspapers relied on betting markets to predict the outcome of elections, often with remarkable accuracy.

The Conversation

Kamala Harris’ polls surge stalls ahead of Democratic National Convention

The US presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 47.1–44.6% with 4.2% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. In my previous US politics article last Wednesday, Harris led Trump by 46.8–43.7%.

The Guardian - US

Both presidential campaigns descend on critical swing state of Pennsylvania

Trump to hold rally in north-east while Harris tours through west of what election forecaster calls ‘tipping point’ state

Top News

Polls Show VP Harris Gaining Ground In Swing States

Ohio Sen. JD Vance discusses Trump's campaign strategy and the evolving dynamics between Trump and Harris. Polls show Harris leading in some swing states, ...

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news in one place.

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Reason

Kamala Wants Price Controls

Plus: East River swimming, Nord Stream update, Palmer Luckey, and more...

The Independent UK

Megyn Kelly attributes Trump ‘rambling’ in Elon Musk interview to his age

Conservative media personality has been critical of the former president in the past – while he has repeatedly insulted her

Salon

Nate Silver: Harris is now beating Trump

"We've seen momentum for Harris with her rising consistently to about a 2.5% lead in national polls," Silver said

The Conversation

Harris’ lead over Trump continues to increase in US national and swing state polls

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 46.8–43.7 with 3.9% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. In my previous US politics article on August 5, Harris led Trump by 45.5–44.1.

Fortune

Nate Silver charts the course of risk-taking, from Sam Bankman-Fried to Sam Altman

For Nate Silver poker, Sam Bankman-Fried, and the future of AI are all connected by one thing—risk-taking.

Reason

Nate Silver: How Likely Is a Kamala Harris Presidency?

Statistician Nate Silver will join Just Asking Questions at 12:30 p.m. ET this Thursday to talk about the state of the Democratic Party.

The Guardian - UK

On the Edge by Nate Silver review – the art of risk-taking

From card sharps to crypto traders, a statistician asks what we can learn from the people prepared to gamble everything

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