The Latest Breaking News from Nate Silver

The United States presidential election will be held Tuesday, with results coming in from Wednesday morning AEDT. I have a guide to Wednesday below that includes when polls in the key states close and other information.

"It's hard for anybody to say they saw this coming. She has clearly leaped into a leading position."

Polling experts point to ‘fake polls’ exaggerating his support, with baseless lawsuits alleging fraud already filed

The United States presidential election will be held next Tuesday, with results coming in Wednesday AEDT. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.6–47.5, a slight gain for Trump since Monday, when Harris led by 48.6–47.4. Harris’ national lead peaked on…

Blockchain evidence points to users carrying out market manipulation to inflate trading volumes on the popular political betting platform.

Edited video clip of president’s remarks suggests he insulted Trump backers, but his wording is unclear

In today’s newsletter: The polls are neck and neck. So why are some Kamala Harris supporters convinced the Republicans have the election in the bag?

Kalshi still lags behind Polymarket, the offshore leader among electoral betting markets.

Dissing Puerto Ricans in the final days of the campaign could be a death blow