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The Latest Breaking News from Michael Feroli

JPMorgan Chase Sees $150B–$200B Refund Risk After Trump Tariff Setback

JPMorgan warns the U.S. could owe up to $200 billion in tariff refunds after the Supreme Court struck down key Trump emergency trade duties.

International Business Times

The job market in 2026 will suffer from 'uncomfortably slow growth' in the first half but reverse higher later in the year, JPMorgan says

The job market in 2026 will suffer from 'uncomfortably slow growth' in the first half but reverse higher later in the year, JPMorgan says

"We believe supports are coming together that will arrest this labor market slowdown and revive activity growth later next year."

The government shutdown won't be completely recouped—and it could cost the economy up to $14 billion, estimates say

The government shutdown won't be completely recouped—and it could cost the economy up to $14 billion, estimates say

The report says lost goods and services from furloughed workers’ downtime won’t be regained once the government reopens.

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The Federal Reserve is about to have an extremely awkward meeting

While there is little doubt about the outcome of the Fed meeting, there are still questions over who exactly will be voting.

The Fed 'desperately' wants to avoid a recession because it doesn't want to get blamed and put its independence at risk, top economist says

"Obviously nobody wants a recession. But also in the context of Fed independence, they really don't want to get blamed for going into a downturn because that would impair their ability."

JPMorgan Now Expects September Fed Cut Instead Of December—Jobless Claims Surge, Trump Nomination Adds New Twist

JPMorgan Chase Co. has moved up its forecast for the first Federal Reserve rate cut to September, abandoning its previous December timeline as labor market data weakens and political dynamics shift within the central bank.

Despite Trump Pause, Overall US Tariff Rate At Highest In A Century

US President Donald Trump's delay of steeper tariffs may have won brief respite on Wall Street, but analysts say his actions -- which hit China especially hard -- already bring the average US effective tariff rate to its highest in over a century.

International Business Times

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The Wall Street economist who nailed the Fed's 'joyous' rate cut sees the same thing again

The Wall Street economist who nailed the Fed's 'joyous' rate cut sees the same thing again

"In other contexts, a larger move may convey greater concern about growth, but Powell repeatedly stressed this was basically a joyous cut as ebbing inflation allows the Fed to act to preserve a strong labor market."

Weak jobs report shows 'there’s a strong case' for Fed rate cuts before next meeting, economist says

Weak jobs report shows 'there’s a strong case' for Fed rate cuts before next meeting, economist says

"From a risk management perspective we think there’s a strong case to act before September 18th."

JP Morgan warns of gloomy job market ahead as the economy 'slips into a recession'

JP Morgan warns of gloomy job market ahead as the economy 'slips into a recession'

Hopes for a Fed pivot are premature, as Jay Powell has not succeeded yet in anchoring inflation expectations.

US economy seen narrowly averting back-to-back contractions

The U.S. economy may have eked out modest growth in the second quarter, skirting back-to-back quarterly contractions, but rising at a tepid enough pace to feed concerns of an eventual downturn.

Tribune News Service

Economists sour on US outlook after spending stumbles

An influx of data showing softer consumer spending, sagging sentiment and subdued manufacturing suggest a U.S. economy with a more fragile foundation, prompting several forecasters to lower their estimates for growth.

Tribune News Service

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