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The Latest Breaking News from John Curtice

‘Unprecedented territory’: are UK polls as volatile as they seem? – in charts

In what is beginning to look like a fragmented five-party system, small swings carry outsized political consequences

The Guardian - UK

Why Nigel Farage is angry at pollsters as Reform’s support falls

IN FULL

The Independent UK

Polling guru says ‘no doubt’ Reform’s support is falling as Nigel Farage renews attack on YouGov

Sir John Curtice and other polling analysts have noted the average for Nigel Farage’s party across polls has dropped in the past month

The Independent UK

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Five key takeaways from the Gorton and Denton byelection

The night saw a big win for the Greens, disappointment for Reform and landmark losses for Labour and the Tories

The Guardian - UK

London local elections leave Labour 'nowhere to hide' with Greens on march in the capital, new analysis

But the city is such a Labour stronghold that it may cling onto many wards, says Professor Sir John Curtice

Evening Standard

Tories could be hit harder by local election U-turn than Labour, top pollster says

John Curtice says the Conservative Party is facing challenges in large county councils now being forced to organise May elections

The Independent UK

The Polanski effect? These charts reveal how much the Greens have advanced

The Green party has made gains under its leader – but there is also uncertainty ahead

The Guardian - UK

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‘We want a real political fight over this’: Why Starmer wants to make Brexit the key issue at the next election

Exclusive: After tacking to the right on migration, it is on EU relations that the government believes it can strike a clear dividing line with opposition parties ahead of the next general election

The Independent UK

Starmer allies ‘plan to block Andy Burnham’s route back to Westminster’

Starmer allies on Labour’s national executive committee reportedly trying to stop potential leadership rival from standing at by-election

The Independent UK

Robert Jenrick boasts that Reform is for the workers, but it’s a class war trap – and Labour shouldn’t fall for it

Though Labour's voters are more likely to be the educated middle-classes, its focus must be fighting inequality. We know Farage’s party will only enrich the wealthy, says Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee

The Guardian - UK

Andy Burnham is Labour’s best hope of keeping Farage out of No 10, according to UK’s top pollster

With rumours swirling about a coup against Starmer, Britain’s leading polling guru told The Independent that he would not be surprised if one of the main party leaders is replaced in 2026

The Independent UK

Farage claims Reform is now UK’s biggest party as Labour membership plummets

According to an internal leak Labour has lost 100,000 paid up members since the election leaving Reform UK as the UK’s biggest party

The Independent UK

Liz Truss mini-Budget torpedoed Brexit economic hopes, says expert as Labour seeks closer EU ties

The UK economy has suffered a multi-billion pound blow from quitting the European Union, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility

Evening Standard

Starmer to face cabinet backlash if he breaks manifesto pledge on income tax

Senior ministers fear rumoured plans could backfire significantly with already-weary voters

The Independent UK

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The Independent UK

‘Disappointed’ Starmer in firing line over historic by-election defeat for Labour in Caerphilly

‘We clearly need to do much more’ admits prime minister

The Independent UK

What does Plaid Cymru stand for?

Plaid Cymru’s leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has hailed the by-election result as ‘real evidence’ that people are putting their ‘faith’ in the party

Evening Standard

Plaid Cymru’s Caerphilly by-election win leaves Labour with ‘very tough fight’

Cabinet Office minister Nick Thomas-Symonds said the result pointed to a ‘fractured political landscape’.

The Independent UK

John Curtice says Labour in ‘severe trouble’ in Wales after humiliating by-election defeat

Plaid Cymru ‘now well placed to provide Wales with its next first minister’, says top pollster

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The Guardian - UK

Senior SNP figures believe Holyrood majority ‘within reach’ at May’s election

As party gathers for conference, re-engaging independence supporters seen as way forward after trust in Scottish government hits record low

The Guardian - UK

It’s Tory conference: Boriswave goodbye to a deluded party on its way to electoral annihilation

When both Reform and the Liberal Democrats are eating your lunch, and even Nadine Dorries has abandoned ship, it might just be time to call it, says Guardian columnist Marina Hyde

Evening Standard

Electoral system means Lib Dems will ‘undoubtedly’ win more seats than Tories

Polling expert Sir John Curtice said the coalition of voters Boris Johnson assembled in 2019 had all but broken up.

The Independent UK

Lib Dems will ‘almost undoubtedly’ win more seats than Tories, says top pollster John Curtice

Sir John Curtice made the stark warning at a fringe event at the Conservative party conference

The Independent UK

Badenoch is unknown to UK public and not trusted by voters, top pollster says

Sir John Curtice says the Conservative leader managed to make no impression on much of the public

The Guardian - UK

Wednesday briefing: The prime minister’s big conference speech promised renewal – can he deliver?

In today’s newsletter: Subdued vibes on the floor, poor polls and teetering party politics stand in the way of Keir Starmer’s plan to take Britain to the promised land

The Independent UK

Starmer argues for inclusive patrotism and accuses Farage of trying to divide Britain

Prime Minister Keir Starmer gas accused hard-right politician Nigel Farage of crossing “a moral line” with his anti-immigtration stance

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