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The Latest Breaking News from John Curtice

Friday briefing: What the local election results tell us so far

In today’s newsletter: gains for Reform and losses for Labour in early results, but experts say overall picture underlines ‘the fracturing of British politics’

The Guardian - UK

Sir John Curtice delivers blunt verdict on Starmer as Labour braces for election losses

Sir Keir Starmer has “never been as popular” as his Labour Party, elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice said as he analyzed the prime minister’s role in his party’s poor polling ahead of the local elections.

The Independent UK

Eve-of-election poll suggests SNP’s lead is ‘tightening’

The poll came after elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice said the ‘odds are against’ a majority win for John Swinney’s party.

Evening Standard

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‘Odds against’ John Swinney’s SNP winning Holyrood majority, says polling expert

Professor Sir John Curtice gave his latest view on the eve of Thursday’s Scottish Parliament election.

Evening Standard

Local election protest votes are no time for defenestrating prime ministers

THE INDEPENDENT VIEW: Editorial: However disastrous the outcome of the local elections, Labour’s leadership crisis will not be solved by hopping from replacement to replacement – as the Conservatives previously found out to their cost

The Independent UK

Starmer will be forced out of No 10 – it’s just a matter of when and how, top pollster warns

Exclusive: John Curtice says the likelihood of Keir Starmer leading Labour into the next election ‘is very low indeed’

The Independent UK

Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay says he will not lose his seat at election

Mr Findlay said he did not agree with analysis from Sir John Curtice that he could lose his seat if his candidate for the Eastwood constituency wins.

Evening Standard

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SNP bound to win ‘vast bulk’ of constituencies if polls are accurate – Curtice

The polling expert however said the three current largest parties in Scotland are ‘all doing badly’ compared to the last election.

Evening Standard

Local elections 2026: Starmer 'may be saved' from worst nightmare by Labour surviving Green surge in London

Professor Sir John Curtice cast doubt on whether Zack Polanski’s Green Party will make a ‘big breakthrough’ in the capital in the May 7 local elections

Evening Standard

Local elections mapped: Where Labour is facing a ‘calamity’ and the key seats to watch

The governing party could see its worst-ever results on 7 May, experts have warned

The Independent UK

Unpopular Starmer a negative on the doorstep, Labour mayors warn as they fear local elections wipeout

Exclusive: Labour mayors say repeated U-turns, failure to communicate successes, and the Peter Mandelson scandal are pushing voters away

The Independent UK

‘Unprecedented territory’: are UK polls as volatile as they seem? – in charts

In what is beginning to look like a fragmented five-party system, small swings carry outsized political consequences

The Guardian - UK

Why Nigel Farage is angry at pollsters as Reform’s support falls

IN FULL

The Independent UK

Polling guru says ‘no doubt’ Reform’s support is falling as Nigel Farage renews attack on YouGov

Sir John Curtice and other polling analysts have noted the average for Nigel Farage’s party across polls has dropped in the past month

The Independent UK

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The Guardian - UK

Five key takeaways from the Gorton and Denton byelection

The night saw a big win for the Greens, disappointment for Reform and landmark losses for Labour and the Tories

Evening Standard

London local elections leave Labour 'nowhere to hide' with Greens on march in the capital, new analysis

But the city is such a Labour stronghold that it may cling onto many wards, says Professor Sir John Curtice

The Independent UK

Tories could be hit harder by local election U-turn than Labour, top pollster says

John Curtice says the Conservative Party is facing challenges in large county councils now being forced to organise May elections

The Guardian - UK

The Polanski effect? These charts reveal how much the Greens have advanced

The Green party has made gains under its leader – but there is also uncertainty ahead

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The Independent UK

‘We want a real political fight over this’: Why Starmer wants to make Brexit the key issue at the next election

Exclusive: After tacking to the right on migration, it is on EU relations that the government believes it can strike a clear dividing line with opposition parties ahead of the next general election

The Independent UK

Starmer allies ‘plan to block Andy Burnham’s route back to Westminster’

Starmer allies on Labour’s national executive committee reportedly trying to stop potential leadership rival from standing at by-election

The Guardian - UK

Robert Jenrick boasts that Reform is for the workers, but it’s a class war trap – and Labour shouldn’t fall for it

Though Labour's voters are more likely to be the educated middle-classes, its focus must be fighting inequality. We know Farage’s party will only enrich the wealthy, says Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee

The Independent UK

Andy Burnham is Labour’s best hope of keeping Farage out of No 10, according to UK’s top pollster

With rumours swirling about a coup against Starmer, Britain’s leading polling guru told The Independent that he would not be surprised if one of the main party leaders is replaced in 2026

The Independent UK

Farage claims Reform is now UK’s biggest party as Labour membership plummets

According to an internal leak Labour has lost 100,000 paid up members since the election leaving Reform UK as the UK’s biggest party

Evening Standard

Liz Truss mini-Budget torpedoed Brexit economic hopes, says expert as Labour seeks closer EU ties

The UK economy has suffered a multi-billion pound blow from quitting the European Union, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility

The Independent UK

Starmer to face cabinet backlash if he breaks manifesto pledge on income tax

Senior ministers fear rumoured plans could backfire significantly with already-weary voters

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