PROFESSOR John Curtice has delivered his verdict on last night’s by-election results as he said they will “reverberate around Westminster for a long time”.
It was a big night for UK politics as three by-election results were called, where the SNP’s Lara Bird won in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry and Scottish Tory MSP Douglas Lumsden claimed victory in Aberdeen South.
South of the border, Labour’s Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election, which Curtice described as a “remarkable personal success,” as the Mayor of Greater Manchester’s win is seen as a base from which he will seek to oust Keir Starmer as Prime Minister.
Burnham took 24,937 votes to Reform’s Robert Kenyon's 15,696, with Rupert Lowe's far-right outfit, Restore Britain, coming in third place with 6.84%, while the Conservatives came fourth.
Writing for the BBC, Curtice explained that although the Tory vote collapsed in Makerfield, the very opposite happened in Aberdeen South, where the party made their first gain in a Scottish by-election since the Glasgow Pollok by-election in March 1967.
Campaigning by all parties in the Aberdeen South by-election was largely based around the future of oil and gas, with the city dubbed the energy capital of Europe, candidates focused on how they would support the industry.
An argument won by the Tories, Curtice said.
“In a city that was once made rich by oil but which has now fallen on harder times, the party turned the ballot into a referendum on the net zero policy of both the UK and the Scottish governments,” he added.
“It was rewarded with a 25 point increase in its share of the vote, a record for the party in a post-war by-election and its first by-election gain in Scotland since 1967.”
Elsewhere, Curtice noted that support for Labour had fallen heavily in both the Scottish by-elections, with the party dropping 19 points in Aberdeen South and 18 points in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.
He added that polling conducted during the Makerfield campaign suggested Labour would have lost “quite badly” if anyone other than Burnham had been their candidate.
Curtice wrote that he believed people voted for Burnham for a number of reasons, including voting tactically to keep Reform out and “hoping to bring about the downfall of the prime minister”.
“Others will simply have been persuaded by Burnham's personal style and his record as Greater Manchester mayor,” he wrote.
Speaking at the count in Wigan, Burnham said he hoped the result would be a “turning point” and warned his party this was a “final chance to change”
Burnham added that “everyone knows that politics isn’t working,” as he is expected to now challenge Starmer for control over the Labour Party.
Curtice said that last night's by-elections will “reverberate around Westminster for a long time”.
Adding that a challenge to Starmer's tenure in Number 10 now seems “inevitable”.
“But just as importantly, the government's energy policy could well now find itself in the midst of a serious political storm,” Curtice concluded.
