JOHN Curtice has given his verdict on the forthcoming Westminster by-elections in Scotland and whether the furore after Peter Murrell pled guilty to embezzling SNP funds will impact support for the party.
By-elections are to take place in Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry later this month after former MPs Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s former leader in Westminster, and Stephen Gethins were both elected to the Scottish Parliament.
This means new MPs will be elected to serve the overlapping constituencies in the House of Commons, which the SNP will be hoping to retain.
But this effort also comes after Murrell – the party’s former chief executive and the estranged husband of former first minister Nicola Sturgeon – pleaded guilty at the High Court in Edinburgh to embezzling £400,310.65 from the SNP between 2010 and 2022.
The whole affair has led to days of negative media coverage for the party, with more details set to come out in a hearing this week.
With that in mind, The National spoke with Curtice – a politics professor at Strathclyde University – to get his thoughts on how and whether this might impact SNP support.
The leading pollster first mentioned a Norstat poll commissioned by The Times which found that SNP support had in fact increased by two points.
The survey – which was conducted between May 27 and May 29 and polled 1002 Scots – put the SNP on 34% on voting intention for the next General Election, with Reform and Labour trailing on 17 and 16% respectively.
Given this level of predicted support, Curtice said it would be "very surprising" if the by-elections in Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry on June 18 are anything other than SNP holds.
“You just remember that the SNP managed to hang onto these two constituencies at a time [2024] when they were five points behind Labour across Scotland as a whole," he added.
“They are now 18 points ahead in yesterday's poll, and support for the Tories is a little bit lower than it was at the time of the 2024 election.”
The politics guru highlighted that the SNP did only win Arbroath and Broughty Ferry in 2024 by two points over Labour.
But while the SNP haven’t recovered dramatically since then, Labour’s result in the Holyrood election in May “collapsing” doesn’t point to any recovery for Anas Sarwar's party either.
Curtice then added on the topic of Aberdeen South that it is “not surprising” that the Tories are talking about oil and gas and suggesting they could win but that the evidence suggests it is a very tall order.
“Conservative support is a little bit lower than it was in 2024. The SNP is probably a little bit higher. So, unless the Tories can really, somehow or another, make a very substantial amount of the oil issue – I don't see them being able to topple the SNP there.”
Asked whether Murrell pleading guilty and the negative media coverage and scrutiny since then might be a factor, Curtice said that he is doubtful – particularly given Murrell, for most Scots, is an unknown.
“I think the fact that the opposition are trying so very, very hard to tar Sturgeon with this brush is actually indicative that they probably also appreciate that Murrell is a backroom character,” the pollster said.
“You know about him. I know about him. Every journalist knows about him, but for most members of the public – Mr Who right?”
Curtice went on: “And certainly, when the original arrest happened, the arrest of Murrell made absolutely no difference to SNP support. The arrest of Sturgeon did.
“And, of course, Sturgeon is very, very much associated with the SNP. So I think there's an implicit acknowledgement here by the opposition as to the way in which they're playing this – that Murrell is relatively small fry so far as public opinion is concerned, that Sturgeon would be a much bigger fish, and you can therefore also see why Sturgeon feels that she is indeed being hounded.
“Yes, she is, she's being hounded because that's politics.”
He went on: “Insofar as this whole episode has turned out, well, the damage has already been done.
“It was done in terms of the ability of the SNP to raise money through to 2024 and beyond.”
Curtice also said that it did do some damage this time in that it took the independence debate and call for a Section 30 order at Holyrood on Tuesday last week – just a day after Murrell pled guilty – off the news agenda.
“If Swinney had been fleet of foot after Monday's case, he would have dropped it on Tuesday. I think that was a mistake.”
