POLLSTER John Curtice has given his verdict on whether joke candidate Count Binface can challenge Nigel Farage in the upcoming Clacton by-election.
The Clacton by-election was triggered after the Reform UK leader announced he will resign as an MP amid a scandal over his donations in what he has called a battle between “people versus the establishment”.
With all mainstream parties then declining to stand, Count Binface emerged as the first main contender.
Since then, far right Reclaim Party leader Laurence Fox and a local independent candidate have also thrown their hats in the ring.
But bookmakers have slashed the odds on Count Binface’s chances – suggesting he is the second favourite behind Farage in a constituency that is widely regarded as one of Reform's strongest.
Asked if there is a chance Count Binface could mount a challenge against Farage, Curtice said: “No.
“I mean, we'll see what happens. When David Davis did the same thing in 2008, there was a whole string of candidates. It was one of the longest ballot papers ever in British political history. I guess the Monster Raving Loonies will stand as well.”
The politics professor at Strathclyde University added: “We’ll wait and see who else decides. Rejoin EU would normally regard Clacton as completely hopeless territory because it’s very pro-Brexit – which is why Farage got it – but maybe given Farage is a Brexiteer, they might stand.
"The English Democrats? The SDP? However, they tend to have quite good relations with Reform UK. So maybe not. Anybody who’s an independent who wants to publicise a cause.”
Curtice went on: “But the truth is that if the other parties had been standing, you would have been still expecting Farage to get more than half the vote.
“And because he got 46% last time before – they’re much more popular now than they were back in July 24 – so they should be able to win the by-election quite comfortably. But the question is whether somebody can begin to look like a credible potential alternative and can get themselves into double figures or whatever.”
Pollster Mark McGeoghegan also wasn’t optimistic about Count Binface’s chances.
“I really can't see it actually happening. In any other constituency, I could see it. I think you'd make an argument for it. But Clacton is the most Reform UK, Nigel Farage constituency in the country. It’s why he ran there in 2024.
“I don't think he stands a reasonable chance of winning. Like, 99 times out of 100 Nigel Farage is going to win this seat, but you can think of scenarios in which he [Count Binface] could potentially win. We're going to have a whole by-election campaign.”
The academic added: “There's a question of alleged corruption. He's wanting to make this a people-versus-the-establishment contest. But British voters do not like politicians who seem to be on the take."
But McGeoghegan went on to say that whilst he can’t see a Farage loss happening, the move appears to have already backfired already and that there is a big risk of a reduced majority compared to 2024.
“Stories about him losing however many thousands of votes compared with 2024, that's going to be a big blow to that sense of momentum that they (Reform UK) have,” he added.
