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Lumber is a leading industrial commodity as it is required for new homes and infrastructure building. While lumber futures are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the contracts are often illiquid, which increases the likelihood of extreme price fluctuations. In August 2025, lumber prices have risen but remain significantly below…

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Physical lumber prices have recovered after a significant Q2 decline as the market expects lower inflation to lead to falling short-term interest rates. However, the peak construction season will be in the rearview mirror in the coming months, so the wood futures market may have to wait until spring 2025…

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The lumber futures market is highly illiquid, causing extreme periodic volatility. However, lumber is a critical bellwether commodity that sometimes reacts violently to changes in economic conditions. The results of the recent December FOMC meeting could significantly increase lumber prices over the coming weeks and months.

After declining from August through October 2023, physical lumber futures found a bottom and turned higher. Lumber is a thinly traded futures market but a critical economic indicator. The recent rise in lumber prices could signal an overall rally in commodity prices on the horizon.