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The Latest Breaking News from Robin Brooks

Trump could trigger a financial crisis in Russia — if he wants to — but has backed off from his threat of 'very severe consequences'

"Trump can squeeze the Russians; he seems to forget that the United States holds the cards, not Moscow."

Fortune

You’re welcome, world: U.S. tariffs may cool inflation for the rest of the global economy

“We doubt that U.S. tariffs will significantly affect inflation in the rest of the world, but if anything, the effect could be mildly disinflationary.”

Fortune

Trump Targets Tariff Evasion, With Eye On China

As the United States ramps up tariffs on major trading partners globally, President Donald Trump is also disrupting strategies that could be used -- by Chinese companies or others -- to circumvent them.

International Business Times

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'US exceptionalism roars back' as markets defy doomsayers and draw record foreign inflows after panic over Trump tariffs

"The hurdle for the US to experience genuine capital flight is high and certainly wasn’t breached in April."

Fortune

US Targets Attempts To Dodge Trump Tariffs With China In Crosshairs

As President Donald Trump ramps up tariff threats on US trading partners, his administration is taking aim at a tactic said to be used by Chinese companies to dodge the levies by moving goods through third countries.

International Business Times

How Have Markets Reacted To Past US Tariff Hikes? Insights As Trump's Trade Threats Spurs Global Jitters

History shows that higher tariffs have been painful for the stock markets to digest, but President-elect Donald Trump's stand on increasing the tariffs seems undeterred, while some analysts call it a negotiating tool, others think that combining it with tax cuts could be good for the economy.

Benzinga

Trump’s Treasury pick leaves investors hopeful that he’ll take the sting out of ‘America First’ trade policies

Donald Trump will nominate Scott Bessent to replace Janet Yellen as Treasury secretary, with markets buoyed by comments on tariffs.

Fortune

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IMF plan to visit Russia to assess economy prompts dismay across Europe

Protest letter sent to fund’s head over move to send staff to Moscow for first review since invasion of Ukraine

The Guardian - UK

‘Sanctions hole’: how secretive routes supply Russia with western tech and consumer goods

German exports of cars to Kyrgyzstan are up 5,100% since the start of the Ukraine war – with other routes channelling luxury goods and computer chips

The Guardian - AU

Armenia Faces Scrutiny Over Surge In EU Imports Amid Sanctions Concerns

Armenia's trade surge from EU raises suspicions of sanctions circumvention, drawing attention from US Treasury and analysts.

Zenger

Russia earns less from oil and spends more on war. So far, sanctions are working like a slow poison

The Russian currency has stabilized after dipping below 100 rubles to the U.S. dollar — but that doesn't mean the pressure is off Russia's economy

The Independent UK

Billions of dollars are flowing out of Chinese markets in a ‘seismic’ change in capital flows despite a flurry of actions to shore up confidence

“China has now seen consistent and large outflows for the past 18 months, as investors grow wary of autocracies,” IIF chief economist Robin Brooks wrote in a Sunday post.

Fortune

China's 'Wartime Cabinet' Is Complete: What Xi Jinping's Loyalists Mean For US Stocks, Investing, Chip Sector, Taiwan

Xi Jinping has been confirmed for a third five-year mandate as Chinese Communist Party general secretary. Were he to complete his third term, he would become the longest-running paramount leader since Mao Zedong.

Benzinga

Fight against inflation raises spectre of global recession

Analysis: Interest rate cuts show central banks willing to plunge economies into recession to halt price rises

The Guardian - UK

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The Independent UK

Biden's burdens grow: Sagging global economy adds to US woes

President Joe Biden embarks for Asia on Thursday facing a new risk for the economy at home: a global economic slowdown caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the pandemic shutting down Chinese cities and factories

The Independent UK

Rising interest rates in US will hinder foreign economies

When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates — as it did Wednesday — the impact doesn’t stop with U.S. homebuyers paying more for mortgages or Main Street business owners facing costlier bank loans

People

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