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The Latest Breaking News from Bernard Yaros

The labor market could become so backward that the economy will have to shed jobs to keep unemployment steady

“Today, the labor market’s speed limit is much lower than just a few years ago, setting the stage for a jobless expansion.”

Fortune

Here's where U.S. debt may become unsustainable as interest payments trigger a default crisis that even steep tax hikes can't fix

"Bond markets unravel sooner when investors believe that the government will not restore fiscal sustainability."

Fortune

Social Security's trust fund is nearing insolvency, and the borrowing binge that may follow will rip through debt markets, economist warns

“Inflation may not wait for debt to pile up. It can arrive the moment Congress commits to that debt-ridden path.”

Fortune

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Grocery Prices Are Still Climbing — Now Trump Orders Tariff Exemptions To Slow The Surge

After years of elevated inflation, many Americans are still feeling sticker shock at the grocery store. Food costs continue creeping higher, even as overall inflation has eased from its peak. Now, the Trump administration is turning to tariff exemptions in hopes of slowing the pressure on household budgets.

Benzinga

Rural America's farm economy is struggling with its own K shape, as government payouts rocket to crisis levels

"As a share of GDP, government payouts will approach levels rarely seen outside of the 1980s' farm crisis and the farm aid packages under the first Trump presidency."

Fortune

More groceries may benefit from tariff exemptions as the 2026 midterm elections get closer, analyst says

"Food prices also weigh heavily on consumers' inflation psychology, not to mention their sentiment."

Fortune

The unprecedented government shutdown will weigh on a US economy already under stress

The six-week government shutdown that came to an end late Wednesday will be another drag on an economy already facing many challenges, though the full impact will take months to measure

The Independent UK

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Shutdown to leave mark on US economy from lost paychecks, canceled flights

The longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history appears to be nearing an end, but not without leaving a mark on an already-struggling economy

The Independent UK

It’s getting harder to separate the stock market from the economy. That means the Fed and Congress have more incentive to help Wall Street

A $1 increase in stock wealth leads to a $0.05 marginal propensity to consume, up from less than $0.02 in 2010, according to Oxford Economics.

Fortune

Economist Warns Social Security, Medicare Insolvency By 2034 Could Trigger Bond Market Selloff, Forcing Congress Into Painful Fiscal Reforms

The trust funds for Social Security and Medicare are expected to be depleted by 2034, which could prompt the bond market to push Congress into action, according to a leading economist.

Benzinga

Social Security and Medicare cuts are coming because the bond market will eventually bring Congress to its knees, economist says

"A sharp upward repricing of the term premium for longer-dated bonds could force Congress back into a reform mindset."

Fortune

US Trade Deficit Widens In May As Trump Tariffs Fuel Uncertainty

The US trade deficit widened more than expected in May, with both imports and exports declining as US President Donald Trump's tariffs sent shock waves through the economy and snagged supply chains.

International Business Times

'Retaliate': Trump Tariff Talk Spurs Global Jitters, Preparations

Donald Trump's tariff threats have rattled foreign businesses and governments, with many fearing it could signal the opening salvo of an all-out trade war when he returns to the White House next year.

International Business Times

Tariffs, immigrants and fiscal policy: Trump’s second term as US president

Analysts expect Republican to act on threats of imposing tariffs and blocking immigrants soon in his second term.

Al Jazeera

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International Business Times

Tariffs, Tax Cuts, Energy: What Is In Trump's Economic Plan?

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump wants to bring back US manufacturing and lower costs, relying on tariffs to boost US coffers and exert pressure on other countries -- but the reality is less straightforward.

Al Jazeera

What economic challenges await Kamala Harris as US president hopeful?

Harris’s economic views are largely unknown, but inflation is a red flag for the Democratic presidential nominee.

Al Jazeera

The Trump economy: Slower growth, higher prices and a bigger national debt

Plans to hike tariffs, tighten immigration and cut taxes are likely to crimp growth and fuel inflation, experts say.

Al Jazeera

Who benefits from US tariffs on Chinese imports? Experts weigh in

While tariffs are expected to have a negligible impact on the US economy, they are expected to boost President Biden.

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Al Jazeera

As US inflation ticks back up, it could impact the presidential election

The fight against inflation is far from over and could reduce the chances of interest rate cuts for this year.

Al Jazeera

Will the US unemployment rate continue at historic lows?

US job growth has continued at a steady clip in months since COVID pandemic, but experts are looking for warning signs.

International Business Times

US Growth Picks Up In 2023 On Jobs And Consumer Spending

US economic growth was stronger than expected in the final months of 2023, government data showed Thursday, offering a boost to President Joe Biden as he starts his reelection campaign.

Al Jazeera

What is 14th Amendment and can it resolve US debt ceiling fight?

President Biden says he could invoke constitution to order the Treasury to issue bonds and keep paying gov’t bills.

Al Jazeera

What happens if the US defaults on its debt?

Experts warn of ‘cataclysmic’ scenario if world’s biggest economy fails to meet its debt obligations.

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