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The Latest Breaking News from Moody Analytics

The most troubling feature of the job market is how thinly spread gains are, top economist says — 'this only happens when the economy is in recession'

"Since the beginning of the year, the economy has created a paltry 600k jobs, but without the job growth in these industries, there would be zero job growth."

Fortune

A third of the U.S. economy is already in a recession or at high risk, and another third is stagnating, Zandi warns

“Southern states are generally the strongest, but their growth is slowing.”

Fortune

Winter is coming: U.S. will be most vulnerable to a recession late this year and early next as tariff and immigration fallout peak, top economist says

With the economy facing many threats, it wouldn’t take much to push it into recession, Mark Zandi warns.

Fortune

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When the next recession hits, whoever is president will face intense pressure to cut tariffs, so don’t rely on them for revenue, top economist says

“There’s going to be a strong incentive on that president’s part to say, ‘Okay, I’m going to cut the taxes.’”

Fortune

More than half of industries are already shedding workers, a 'telling' sign that's accompanied past recessions, top economist says

“Things could still turn around if the economic policies weighing on the economy soon lift. But that looks increasingly unlikely.”

Fortune

Top economist warns the U.S. is 'on the precipice of recession' — and it will be hard for the Fed to come to the rescue

“Consumer spending has flatlined, construction and manufacturing are contracting, and employment is set to fall.”

Fortune

Top economist sounds the alarm even louder on the housing market and says homebuilders are 'giving up'

"A big tell is that many builders are delaying their land purchases from the land banks. New home sales, starts, and completions will soon fall."

Fortune

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Which countries will lose the most if tensions reignite around Iran?

Russia could benefit from an escalating situation in the Middle East, while China and Europe would see their economies suffer if the ceasefire between Iran and Israel fails to hold.

Euronews

US Growth Figure Expected To Make For Tough Reading For Trump

US GDP figures for the first quarter are expected to show a sharp drop-off in growth -- and possibly even a recession -- reflecting a surge in imports before President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs came into effect.

International Business Times

China's Forecast-beating Growth Belies Storm Clouds Ahead: Analysts

Forecast-beating growth in China's first quarter may have offered Beijing's economic planners some much needed good news -- but analysts warn they should strap in for tariff-induced woes further down the line.

International Business Times

China's Economy Likely Grew 5.1% In Q1 On Export Surge: AFP Poll

China is expected to post first-quarter growth of around five percent on Wednesday, buoyed by exporters rushing to stave off higher US tariffs but still weighed by sluggish domestic consumption, analysts say.

International Business Times

America’s consumer economy is hostage to its top earners—and that could mean trouble down the road

A Moody’s Analytics report revealed America’s wealthiest individuals are buoying discretionary spending.

Fortune

US Fed Expected To Hold Rate Steady Despite Trump Pressure To Cut

After three interest rate cuts in a row, the US Federal Reserve is expected to take a breather on Wednesday and signal it will remain on pause until the data changes, despite pressure to cut from President Donald Trump.

International Business Times

China To Hash Out Stimulus Plan With US Elections In Its Sights

China's top lawmakers gather Monday to hash out a major stimulus package that analysts say could grow even bigger if former US president Donald Trump wins the White House this week.

International Business Times

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Latin Times

Donald Trump's Plans to Fight Inflation Would Actually Make it Worse, Economists Say

While experts also disagree with some of Vice President Kamala Harris's proposals, they say her plans are not "inflationary" when compared to her opponent's.

International Business Times

China Set To Post Slowest Quarterly Growth This Year: Analysts

China's economy likely expanded at its slowest pace this year, according to an AFP survey ahead of data Friday, as authorities struggle to reignite consumption amid a chronic debt crisis in the property sector.

The Independent UK

Trump's economic plans would worsen inflation, experts say

Donald Trump has vowed that if voters return him to the White House, “inflation will vanish completely.”

Investors Business Daily

Hurricane Helene Economic Price Tag Could Be $34 Billion; The Stock Market Impact

As of Tuesday, the stock market reaction appears to be mostly muted but Moody's Analytics projects major costs.

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Al Jazeera

The Trump economy: Slower growth, higher prices and a bigger national debt

Plans to hike tariffs, tighten immigration and cut taxes are likely to crimp growth and fuel inflation, experts say.

The Hindu

India's GDP to grow 6.1% in 2024: Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics projects India's economy to grow 6.1% in 2024, lower than 7.7% in 2023, due to COVID impact.

StockNews.com

Moody's (MCO): Earnings Analysis for Investors

Global integrated risk assessment company Moody’s (MCO) will report its fourth-quarter results on February 13. The company is expected to report year-over-year growth in earnings and revenue. We assess whether it is worth buying the stock now. Keep reading.

Fortune

Office buildings haven’t been this empty since (at least) 1979—and Texas is taking it on the chin the most

Back-to-work mandates aren’t working.

Fortune

Commercial real estate has a ‘muted’ outlook after a near-death experience in 2023, Moody’s economist says—and ‘office will continue to face the most strain’

“Across all sectors,” says Ermengarde Jabir, senior economist with Moody’s Analytics, “there will be a continued recalibration of sorts.”

Fortune

Commercial real estate is coming off a half-trillion-dollar wipeout. It'll be a lot more complex than ‘mass obsolescence' next year, industry watchers say

While the commercial real estate market is facing substantial headwinds, it’s far from collapsing. But it’s still a rough road ahead, particularly for the office sector.

Fortune

WeWork’s $18 billion bankruptcy is the last thing the reeling commercial real-estate sector needed

Offices now face “a potential new wave of unexpected vacancies,” Moody’s wrote. WeWork’s first move was to dump 70 leases—35 of them in New York.

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