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The Latest Breaking News from Oxford Economics

Trump hails Iran deal but conflict continues to cast long shadow over global economy

As the price of crude oil falls governments are counting the costs of the war in the Middle East

The Guardian - UK

European defence spending: Poland spends larger share of GDP than US

Defence spending across European NATO is at its highest since the Cold War, with countries closest to Russia spending the most. But the continent is splitting between front-line states racing towards 5% of GDP and a large group doing the bare minimum.

Euronews

Thailand a regional data centre leader

Thailand is emerging as one of the fastest-growing data centre markets in Asia-Pacific, fuelled by surging demand for artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing and digital services.

Bangkok Post

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'I Love the Inflation': Trump Defies Economic Experts as US Consumer Prices Record Dramatic Spike

President Trump expressed enthusiasm for high inflation, linking it to covert oil seizures. His remarks have intensified political tensions and economic concerns during a challenging midterm election year.

International Business Times UK

The 2026 World Cup: Billions promised but will the economic boom arrive?

With the kick-off less than ten days away, the largest World Cup in history is set to inject tens of billions into the hosting economies. Yet, analysts are estimating that the relative impact will be marginal.

Euronews

How Much You Need To Earn To Buy A Home In 49 Major US Cities: First-Time Buyers Are In For A Shock

The challenge of homeownership in the US is that rising wages lag behind soaring property prices. Discover which Midwest cities offer affordable options amid the national crisis.

International Business Times UK

The £6bn bond yields drama unfolding behind the headlines

UK 10-year gilts have risen by more than those issued by other advanced economies since the start of the Iran war

The Independent UK

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World Cup travel demand rises, but not all host cities will get the economic win

While the tourism picture points to an increase in activity in the run-up to this summer's tournament, research suggests the broader impact may be far more limited.

Euronews

How AI is forcing central banks to rethink inflation and rates

Central banks are racing to understand how AI is reshaping inflation — and they do not all agree on the answer.

Euronews

Can Hungary's new government fix an economy in crisis?

Investors are optimistic about the new government's expected economic policies, but an energy crisis and a scramble for EU funds could slow its immediate success.

Euronews

How long can the EU’s oil reserves last?

The 400 million barrels of oil released by the International Energy Agency — of which 92 million barrels were contributed by 20 EU countries — could last about five months, according to analysts. The bloc also relies on storage reserves.

Euronews

Trump’s war with Iran could see fuel rationing and global recession within months, experts warn

Prolonged disruption would slow world GDP growth to 1.4 percent in 2026, Oxford Economics warns

The Independent UK

Australia faces 'sharp recession' if US escalates war

As Donald Trump fails to reassure traders about the Strait of Hormuz, analysts warn Australia's economy is hurtling towards a recession the longer it is closed.

AAP

Bond yields are falling even as oil tops $102, showing that Wall Street fears recession more than inflation

“The risks to economic growth begin to take precedence over the risks to inflation,” Oxford Economics said in a note on Monday.

Fortune

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Fortune

How badly the war in Iran is impacting your finances depends on where you live

Households whose budgets have a higher allocation toward groceries, fuel, and utilities—either because of geography or income—are more exposed to the Iranian conflict.

The Independent UK

Soaring gas prices threaten to wipe out Trump’s tax refund gains

Gas prices are likely to remain elevated for some time, as shipping and production disruptions will take time to recover

Fortune

Economists are loathe to mention recessions, but odds just hit 49% for the next 12 months according to Moody’s top economist

"If oil prices remain elevated for much longer (weeks and not months), a recession will be difficult to avoid," Zandi said.

Fortune

There's an oil price scenario that would bring the US economy to a 'standstill;

Higher-for-longer oil prices would lead to economic spillover effects that are much harder to control.

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The Independent UK

UK food prices could spike as fertiliser supplies at risk due to Iran war

National Farmers Union warns against farmers 'becoming collateral damage' in Trump's war on Iran

Axios

What it will mean for the economy if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed

If the military situation doesn't change soon, it will create a stagflationary drag on the U.S. economy.

Euronews

Iran strikes neutralise record IEA reserves release as oil tops $100

Oil spiked above $100 a barrel on Thursday following fresh Iranian attacks on Omani oil storage facilities, reversing any downward pressure from the IEA's record release of 400mn barrels announced the previous day.

Euronews

How high could Europe's inflation go if the Iran war continues?

Economists estimate that rising oil and gas prices could significantly lift eurozone inflation. Markets have already begun pricing in the risk of a rate hike in 2026.

The Guardian - AU

Why has the Iran war sparked fears of stagflation for the global economy?

Conflict in the Middle East risks knocking growth worldwide and boosting prices, economists warn, amid global market turbulence

The Guardian - UK

Why an Iran war inflation shock could wreck global economic recovery

Central bankers and economists warn prolonged conflict could raise retail prices and rip up growth forecasts

Euronews

Iran war: How exposed are European economies?

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent gas prices surging by 60%, putting additional strain on Europe's already-depleted winter inventories and prompting economists to revise their 2026 growth and inflation outlooks.

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