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The Latest Breaking News from Oxford Economics

A Rare Holiday Spending Boom Is Coming—But Only For The Wealthy

This year's holiday season may deliver the strongest sales growth in four years, but it won't be a broad recovery—wealthy households are expected to drive nearly all of the gains.

Benzinga

America is ‘flirting with recession’ if tech investment slows, according to new modeling—but bubble risk is still smaller than dotcom era

Oxford Economics warns U.S. growth could stall if tech investment cools, with global GDP also at risk if AI enthusiasm shows signs of waning.

Fortune

What bubble? By this measure, the AI boom still isn’t at dotcom bust levels

Another key difference between now and the earlier boom-bust era is that the Federal Reserve is lowering rates instead of raising them.

Fortune

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The Nations And Firms Threatened By Trump's Pharma Tariffs

Donald Trump has shocked the global drug industry by announcing 100-percent tariffs on all branded, imported pharmaceutical products -- unless companies are building manufacturing plants in the United States.

International Business Times

If you can't work out why you're struggling when the economy is doing OK, it's because you're on the losing side

Oxford Economics finds that tariffs, labor dynamics, and policy shifts have hit younger and lower-income households hardest.

Fortune

The Fed May Cut Less Than You Think, And That Could Hit Stocks Hard: Oxford Economics

In an exclusive interview with Benzinga, John Canavan, lead analyst at Oxford Economics, struck a cautiously optimistic tone on the U.S. economy heading into 2026, but warned that the market's growing obsession with aggressive rate cuts and tech stock dominance may be ignoring some inconvenient truths.

Benzinga

German business sentiment drops: Is the ambitious fiscal plan at risk?

Germany’s business sentiment fell in September, raising doubts over recovery despite fiscal stimulus. Execution delays, labour shortages, and sector bottlenecks risk dragging on growth. Meanwhile, European stocks trail Wall Street as investor focus shifts.

Euronews

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Why a decline in the UK's university sector is a threat to GDP

UK universities face a funding crisis that could cost the overall economy, but mostly impact a few already fragile regions, said Oxford Economics in a recent report.

Euronews

Prices Are Rising, Jobs Are Gone — Can The Fed Stop A Stagflation Spiral?

An unsettling mix of rising consumer prices and surging layoffs is amplifying fears of stagflation right at the end of the third quarter, putting the Federal Reserve in an increasingly untenable position as it weighs a rate cut next week.

Benzinga

European Central Bank leaves key deposit rate unchanged at 2%

As analysts widely expected, the European Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rate untouched on Thursday. This comes as the eurozone economy shows signs of resilience and inflation remains close to the ECB’s 2% target.

Euronews

Political instability in France: How does it impact the economy and investments?

Economic risks are emerging in France while political instability looms, as the third government is in danger of falling in little over a year. Further attempts to tackle the country’s enormous debt could be choked until after the next presidential election in 2027.

Euronews

Social Security and Medicare cuts are coming because the bond market will eventually bring Congress to its knees, economist says

"A sharp upward repricing of the term premium for longer-dated bonds could force Congress back into a reform mindset."

Fortune

Even a 1% mortgage rate drop could be enough to 'unlock' the frozen housing market, Oxford Economics says

A lower rate should be “enough of an incentive” for some homeowners to sell their homes and trade up, opening up inventory.

Fortune

Top 20% Drive America's Economy While 80% Grapple Inflation — Here's Why This Spells Trouble

America's consumer engine is leaning harder than ever on the rich, with new Moody's data showing the top 20% of earners now account for more than half of all spending while outlays by middle- and lower-income households flatline.

Benzinga

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Fortune

China’s fertility crisis is so dire, rates are falling below ‘replacement levels,’ and GDP could slow by more than half in the next 30 years, study says

According to a new report from Oxford Economics, the potential output growth for China could fall from around 4% in the 2020s to less than 2% by the 2050s.

Euronews

Eurozone growth slows: Spain leads and Germany contracts

Eurozone GDP rose just 0.1% in the second quarter of 2025, down from 0.6% in Q1, as Germany and Italy slipped into contraction. Spain led growth at 0.7%, while France surprised with 0.3% growth.

Al Jazeera

As Trump’s August 1 deadline looms, tariffs are here to stay, experts say

Trump’s protectionist moves likely to keep pushing countries to lessen their reliance on the US, analysts say.

International Business Times

US Fed Poised To Hold Off On Rate Cuts, Defying Trump Pressure

The US central bank is widely expected to hold off slashing interest rates again at its upcoming meeting, as officials gather under the cloud of an intensifying pressure campaign by President Donald Trump.

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Fortune

Oxford Economics says the crumbling housing market will continue deteriorating because of two key factors

Home prices are 55% higher than they were at the beginning of 2020.

Benzinga

Trump's Japan Trade Deal Just Triggered A 2008-Style Bond Market Earthquake

Japan's 10-year bond yields surged to 1.59% on Wednesday—levels not seen since 2008—as markets reeled from a new U.S. trade deal and political turmoil surrounding Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

Fortune

Trump’s tariffs are tipping Europe toward recession

The U.S. is Europe and Britain’s largest export market. About 20% of EU exports go to the U.S. at a value of around $581 billion. Europe’s trade doesn’t immediately have anywhere else to go.

Kiplinger

This is the Best CD to Get Amid Rate Uncertainty

This CD helps you earn more than 4%, with quick access to your cash if you need it.

Fortune

There's a 'growing risk' Fed will have to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December to 'catch up' to a sagging labor market, Oxford Economics

Interest rate cuts could mean the economy is in the clear after the spring’s recession fears—or the labor market suddenly collapsed.

Fortune

New grads are struggling to find jobs and they're being locked out of the labor market because of 3 key factors

"Entry-level roles are in short supply.”

Al Jazeera

‘Save what we can’: Economic uncertainty, Trump rhetoric hits US travel

US travel industry has been hit by domestic consumers cutting back and foreigners snubbing country over Trump rhetoric.

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