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The Latest Breaking News from MRP

Election 2024 polls were wide of the mark on Labour’s margin of victory – this is what may have happened

The 2024 UK election campaign was dominated by discussion of the polls, from start to finish. This was partially because of the sheer volume of polls being published. We had more MRP (multi-level regression post-stratification) polls than ever before, many giving quite different pictures of the size of Labour’s lead.

The Conversation

A Labour landslide, Tory turmoil and Green shoots. What a night

In today’s newsletter: Whether it was a new government, the success of independents, or a farewell to Truss, in the end this election had something for everyone

The Guardian - UK

Tories to slump to just three London seats, Survation election poll finds

London minister Greg Hands tipped to squeak home in Chelsea & Fulham amid private schools row

Evening Standard

From analysis to the latest developments in health,
read the most diverse news in one place.

Reform UK candidates who could be about to enter parliament

Nigel Farage is the party’s best hope of winning a seat but it could win up to 18, including for chair Richard Tice

The Guardian - UK

Sunak in last-ditch attempt to rally Conservative voters with threat of a Labour ‘supermajority’

Rishi Sunak insists he has not given up, with final 48-hour push for votes to ‘stop a Labour supermajority’ – as leading pollster argues polls have been wrong

The Independent UK

General Election 2024: Who will win in Rishi Sunak's seat of Richmond and Northallerton

PM is defending a huge majority but even that isn’t totally safe in the direst MRP projection

Evening Standard

Don’t dismiss the MRP polls – they’re key to defeating the Tories

Letters: Adrian Carter is using polling to help him vote tactically. Plus a letter from Keith Flett

The Guardian - UK

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After 14 years in opposition, Labour’s cabinet will be inexperienced – is that a problem?

It’s 100 years since the Labour party took office for the first time, back then with a minority government. Now, in 2024, it looks set to win an election with what will possibly the largest majority in history.

The Conversation

Meet Rishi Sunak’s Labour Party opponent who hopes to bring the PM down

Exclusive: The Labour candidate hoping to become the first person to defeat a sitting prime minister explains why rural England is abandoning the Tories

The Independent UK

Sleazy, inept and unbelievable – this sorry Sunak campaign sums up the Tory years

The seedy betting scandal is the latest self-inflicted blow to the Conservatives’ election effort

The Guardian - UK

No way is Britain’s general election a done deal. Polls disguise huge uncertainty

The Tories want people to assume the outcome is decided but the only way to remove this government is to vote them out, says Labour’s national campaign coordinator

The Guardian - UK

Election loss, rout, or wipeout? Three Tory outcomes predicted by the polls

Scenarios using a large-scale data model that predicts individual seat tallies indicate anything from 53-155 Tory MPs

The Guardian - UK

Campaign catchup: 24 hours of Tory omnishambles, Labour housing, and Lib Dem melon drama

In today’s newsletter: A frantic 24 hours for the party sees their campaign going from bad to worse – here’s what happened

The Guardian - UK

General Election 2024: Who will win Surrey showdown as Jeremy Hunt fights to avoid defeat by Lib Dems

Evening Standard analysis of key seats to watch in London and beyond for the July 4 General Election

Evening Standard

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Evening Standard

Farage would be carrying Trump's bags around US if Sunak had called autumn poll, says top Tory

Lord Barwell, who was No10 chief-of-staff to Theresa May, said the July 4 election was a ‘terrible mistake’

The Independent UK

Curtice warns Tories heading for worst ever result ‘by a country mile’

After a series of devastating polls yesterday for the Tories, Britain’s leading polling guru explains how bad things will be on 4 July

The Conversation

This is the election of MRP polls – but what are they and why are they showing such different results?

I say, I say, I say, when is a poll not a poll? When it’s a multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) model!

Evening Standard

General Election 2024 seats: Who will be my MP in...Clacton with Nigel Farage standing?

Evening Standard analysis of key seats for the July 4 General Election

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The National (Scotland)

SNP to remain largest Scottish party after General Election, mega poll predicts

THE SNP will remain the largest party in Scotland after the General Election – but a resurgent Labour will come a close second, according to a…

The Independent UK

Nigel Farage appears to ditch key Reform UK immigration policy during live interview

The former UKIP leader ditched the party’s ‘secure detention for all asylum seekers’ plan and said he needed to ‘sort a few things out’

Evening Standard

Grant Shapps hangs up on Sky News reporter when told he faces losing his seat in election

Poll predicts Labour landslide of 422 seats at July’s election

The Independent UK

YouGov: Labour on track for historic 422-seat win as Tories predicted to lose key seats

Labour is projected to win 422 seats across the UK in a historic landslide victory, according to a new MRP prediction from YouGov released on Monday.

The National (Scotland)

Plans approved for 430 new flats and 'sky lounge' in Scottish city centre

Plans for over 430 student flats in Glasgow city centre have been approved.

The Guardian - UK

How accurate are MRP polls predicting huge Tory losses in next general election?

Firms combine polling and census-type data to predict outcomes but with sometimes differing results

The Guardian - UK

Rishi Sunak dismisses ‘malign narrative’ that strikes on Houthis were part of Israel-Gaza war – as it happened

Prime minister tells MPs that strikes were in response to Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea

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