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The Latest Breaking News from MRP

MRP poll puts Reform ahead of Labour and the Tories – here’s why the finding should be treated with caution

Thinktank More in Common recently published an MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll which appears to show that if there was a general election in the near future, Reform would win 180 seats. According to the analysis, Labour and the Conservatives would win 165 seats each and the Liberal Democrats…

The Conversation

Labor takes large leads in YouGov and Morgan polls as surge continues

With just eight days until the May 3 federal election, and with in-person early voting well under way, Labor has taken a seven-point lead in a national YouGov poll and an 11-point lead in a Morgan poll. An exit poll of early voters is also encouraging for Labor.

The Conversation

UK facing 'unprecedented' politics as Reform UK top polls, John Curtice says

THE UK is facing “unprecedented” political circumstances as voters turn away from both Labour and the Tories, polling expert Professor John…

The National (Scotland)

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Labor’s poll surge continues in YouGov, but it’s barely ahead in Freshwater

Labor increased its lead again in a YouGov poll, but Freshwater put the party ahead by just 50.3–49.7. This article also covers the final WA upper house results for the March 8 election.

The Conversation

Labor leads in three recent national polls, four weeks from the election

The federal election will be held in four weeks. A national YouGov poll, conducted March 28 to April 3 from a sample of 1,622, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous non-MRP YouGov poll taken March 14–19.

The Conversation

Labor gains lead in post-budget Newspoll; would be one seat short of majority in YouGov MRP poll

Labor’s regaining of polling momentum has continued into the first week of the formal election campaign. A national Newspoll, conducted March 27–29 from a sample of 1,249, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. This is Labor’s first Newspoll lead…

The Conversation

Labor gains in Redbridge poll of marginal seats and seizes lead in a Morgan poll

A poll of 20 marginal seats by Redbridge and Accent Research was conducted for the News Ltd tabloids on February 20–25, from a sample presumably over 1,000. The Coalition led by 50.5–49.5, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since the February 4–11 marginals poll.

The Conversation

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Coalition leading narrowly in four polls and would likely win an election held now

A national Newspoll, conducted February 10–14 from a sample of 1,244, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged from the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 31% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (steady) and 12% for all Others (up one).

The Conversation

Labour urged to defend workers’ rights bill as poll shows huge public support

Exclusive: Poll reveals 72% of UK voters favour ban on zero-hours contracts, including majority of Tory and Reform supporters

The Guardian - UK

‘Move closer to Europe – not Trump’ voters tell Starmer in major UK poll

Pressure growing on Labour to improve trade with EU as Rachel Reeves admits Brexit damaged UK

The Guardian - UK

Cardo Sponsors Motorcycle Mental Health Charity, Links Riding and Wellbeing

I don't know if the role motorcycling plays in keeping many riders' mental health in check is taken seriously enough. After 10 years of therapy and silent meditation retreats, riding motorcycles has helped my mental health arguably more than anything, and a recent survey indicates that I'm probably not alone…

RideApart

Newspoll returns to a tie after Coalition leads, but Labor has worst result this term in Resolve

A national Newspoll, conducted December 2–6 from a sample of 1,258, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll in early November. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (down one), 33% Labor (steady), 11% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (up two) and 10% for all Others…

The Conversation

Behich facing suspension, Bulls assistant banned

Melbourne City captain Aziz Behich has been cited for an incident involving Melbourne Victory's Nikos Vergos, while Macarthur's assistant coach faces a big ban.

AAP

Federal Newspoll still tied but Albanese’s ratings up; Queensland Newspoll has big LNP lead

A national Newspoll, conducted September 16–20 from a sample of 1,249, had a 50–50 tie for the third consecutive time. Since the last Newspoll three weeks ago, primary votes were 38% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up one), 6% One Nation (down one) and 12% for all…

The Conversation

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The Guardian - UK

Fewer than one in five UK voters are ‘hard nimbys’, finds survey

Pro-building Labour group hopes study will spur on major planning reform and government drive to build 1.5m homes

The Conversation

Election 2024 polls were wide of the mark on Labour’s margin of victory – this is what may have happened

The 2024 UK election campaign was dominated by discussion of the polls, from start to finish. This was partially because of the sheer volume of polls being published. We had more MRP (multi-level regression post-stratification) polls than ever before, many giving quite different pictures of the size of Labour’s lead.

The Guardian - UK

A Labour landslide, Tory turmoil and Green shoots. What a night

In today’s newsletter: Whether it was a new government, the success of independents, or a farewell to Truss, in the end this election had something for everyone

Evening Standard

Tories to slump to just three London seats, Survation election poll finds

London minister Greg Hands tipped to squeak home in Chelsea & Fulham amid private schools row

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The Guardian - UK

Reform UK candidates who could be about to enter parliament

Nigel Farage is the party’s best hope of winning a seat but it could win up to 18, including for chair Richard Tice

The Independent UK

Sunak in last-ditch attempt to rally Conservative voters with threat of a Labour ‘supermajority’

Rishi Sunak insists he has not given up, with final 48-hour push for votes to ‘stop a Labour supermajority’ – as leading pollster argues polls have been wrong

Evening Standard

General Election 2024: Who will win in Rishi Sunak's seat of Richmond and Northallerton

PM is defending a huge majority but even that isn’t totally safe in the direst MRP projection

The Guardian - UK

Don’t dismiss the MRP polls – they’re key to defeating the Tories

Letters: Adrian Carter is using polling to help him vote tactically. Plus a letter from Keith Flett

The Conversation

After 14 years in opposition, Labour’s cabinet will be inexperienced – is that a problem?

It’s 100 years since the Labour party took office for the first time, back then with a minority government. Now, in 2024, it looks set to win an election with what will possibly the largest majority in history.

The Independent UK

Meet Rishi Sunak’s Labour Party opponent who hopes to bring the PM down

Exclusive: The Labour candidate hoping to become the first person to defeat a sitting prime minister explains why rural England is abandoning the Tories

The Guardian - UK

Sleazy, inept and unbelievable – this sorry Sunak campaign sums up the Tory years

The seedy betting scandal is the latest self-inflicted blow to the Conservatives’ election effort

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