Zack Polanski’s Green Party and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK are set to win control of councils in London for the first time ever, according to a bombshell new poll.
The survey by JL Partners showed the Greens gaining the most votes in Hackney and in Haringey, and close behind Labour in several other boroughs.
The elections in three weeks’ time are threatening to be a nightmare for Sir Keir Starmer’s party, with predictions that Labour could lose some 600 councillors in London, or around half the seats they currently hold.
Reform are ahead in Havering in east Outer London, the poll found, and just behind Labour in Barking and Dagenham and the Tories in Bexley.
Tom Lubbock, co-founder of JL Partners, told The Standard: "If Reform and the Greens can win boroughs for the first time then that is momentous in itself.
“What the Green Party will also be pleased with in this data is that they are nipping at the heels of Labour across much of London and it would not take much for them to win many more boroughs."
The survey is an MRP poll based on large-scale polling of sections of society and extrapolating to get council-level results.
It was a nationwide poll, of some 5,000 people, and so is likely to be less accurate than a London-specific survey.
But it is in line with the surge in support for the Greens and Reform still topping voting intention polls despite appearing to having peaked in its popularity.
The Greens are on slightly more than 40% of the vote in Hackney, with Labour just under 33%, and the parties are on 30.4% and 28.2% in Haringey respectively.
The vote share is a strong indicator of likely outcome in local elections, though the results will depend on individual wards, and many of these could be decided by a few dozen votes.
Mr Polanski’s party is close behind Labour in Southwark, 28% to 30.7%, Waltham Forest 18.3% to 21.8%, and Wandsworth 22% to 25.3%, with the Conservatives in between on 24.2%.
The Greens are further behind Labour in Lambeth, 28.4% to 36.5%, and Lewisham 44.5% to 24%, but may perform better in these areas than the survey suggests.
Reform, on 30.1%, is ahead of the Havering Residents Association, with the independents picking up 27.4% of the vote in the Outer London borough.
Mr Farage’s party is just behind the Conservatives in Bexley, on 26.8% compared to 28.3%, and trailing Labour in Barking and Dagenham by 25.9% to 28.1%.
The Reform leader has set his party the goal of winning councils in London.
Labour is ahead of the Conservatives in Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet, three councils won by Sir Keir Starmer’s party in 2022, the last time the borough elections were fought.
However, if the Greens do better than the poll suggests it could eat further into the Labour vote and make it easier for the Tories to win back these previously Conservative stronghold councils.
Sir Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats are seeking to become the biggest party on Merton council, in south west London, and the survey has it on 24.8% of the vote, compared to Labour’s 26.6%.
Just days ago, another MRP poll by More in Common suggested the Greens could get 12 MPs in London at the next general election.
Green strategists believe some of these polls underestimate the level of support for them in London as they are based on nationwide polling.
They also think that some voters desperate for change are switching from Reform to Green as their party offers a more optimistic outlook and set of policies.
