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The Latest Breaking News from Kevin Bonham

LNP wins Queensland election, likely with a clear majority

With 45% of enrolled voters counted in today’s Queensland state election, The Poll Bludger’s results have the Liberal National Party (LNP) winning 38 of the 93 seats, Labor 26, Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) three and independents one.

The Conversation

How preference flows will determine the final make up of the next Assembly

The election is over, but there's lots to be done to work out MLAs.

The Canberra Times

Labor retains office at ACT election; US presidential election remains on a knife’s edge

The Labor Party has won a seventh consecutive ACT election.

The Conversation

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Labor and Albanese gain in post-budget Newspoll, but other polls don’t look as rosy

A national Newspoll, conducted after the May 14 budget from a sample of over 1,200 people, gave Labor a 52–48% lead over the Coalition, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll four weeks ago.

The Conversation

Coalition hopes to exorcise the ghost of Scott Morrison as Cook goes to the polls

Byelection in the south Sydney seat expected to be won by Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy as AEC warns voter turnout could be low

The Guardian - AU

Liberal candidate wins by-election for ex-PM's seat

A by-election to decide who replaces former prime minister Scott Morrison as the federal member for Cook has been won by fellow Liberal Simon Kennedy.

AAP

Tasmanian voters seemingly unmoved by electioneering

Tasmanians will head to the polls on March 23 but it remains to be seen if campaigning by the major parties has swayed voters.

AAP

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Cast your votes, close elections on the cards in 2024

Voters in Qld, the ACT and the NT will head to the polls in 2024, with a tight by-election contest in a federal Victorian seat also taking place.

AAP

Extra senators for ACT and NT will benefit left but increase malapportionment

The Poll Bludger has summarised the final report of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters (JSCEM) that was released Monday. The most contentious recommendation is that the number of senators for both the ACT and the Northern Territory be increased from two to four.

The Conversation

What the final polls are telling us: majority intends to vote no in voice referendum

There is no sign of a trend back to a yes vote, which has an estimated 41.5% support nationally – but needs to be closer to 53%

The Guardian - AU

Early election risk as only Liberal government on brink

An early election is in the hands of Tasmania's former attorney-general Elise Archer, with Australia's only Liberal administration on the brink of collapse.

AAP

Polls show support for the voice is falling. How do they work, and will they be more accurate than in 2019?

Better demographic targeting and the ability to reach participants online among reasons pollsters are more confident in their predictions than previously

The Guardian - AU

Indigenous voice to parliament no campaign leading in every state, poll analysis shows

Support for voice has dropped by 21 percentage points nationally in the past year, according to Guardian Australia’s poll tracker

The Guardian - AU

Victoria's Labor Party plunges in a Morgan poll after Commonwealth Games axed

A Victorian Morgan SMS poll, conducted July 19–20 – the two days after Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews announced the 2026 Commonwealth Games would be cancelled – gave Labor a 53–47% lead over the Coalition, a huge 8.5-point gain for the Coalition since a May Morgan poll. The sample size was…

The Conversation

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The Guardian - AU

Yes campaign ‘keeping the faith’ despite declining polling for voice

Key members of the campaign for an Indigenous voice to parliament say they won’t be caught up analysing numbers as some polls show no vote growing

The Guardian - AU

The devils and the detail of the $715m AFL stadium dividing Tasmania

A plan to build a new ground during a housing crisis has split the community – and could cost the state a football team

The Conversation

Albanese's ratings improve in a post-budget Newspoll; left to control NSW upper house

A federal Newspoll, conducted May 11-13 from a sample of 1,516, is the first poll taken since the May 9 budget. It gave Labor a 55-45 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Labor (steady), 34% Coalition (up one),…

The Conversation

While the Voice has a large poll lead now, history of past referendums indicates it may struggle

Support for the Indigenous Voice to Parliament has dropped since the first polls that asked about it in late 2022. Analyst Kevin Bonham has plotted all the poll results, and the average Voice support is down from 65% in August 2022 to 57% now.

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AAP

Last-minute win hampers NSW Labor's legislative agenda

The NSW government could have an uphill battle passing legislation after the final count left the upper house evenly split between Labor and the coalition.

The Conversation

Voice support increases in Essential and Resolve polls

In the latest Essential poll, support for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to parliament increased slightly to 60-40, from 59-41 in March. But hard “no” support was up two to 26%, soft “no” was down three to 14%, while 27% remained soft “yes” supporters.

The New Daily

Policy questions remain as NSW election nears

Nine days out from the NSW election, questions linger over key policies launched by the major parties.

AAP

Early voting in NSW begins on weekend

Early voting centres around NSW are preparing for strong demand as people who have already decided on a candidate are able to cast their vote from this weekend.

The Conversation

Labor slides in a federal Newspoll; NSW polls give Labor a modest lead

A federal Newspoll, conducted March 1-4 from a sample of 1,530, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll in early February. Primary votes were 37% Labor (down one), 35% Coalition (up one), 10% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (up one) and…

The Guardian - AU

Can poker machine reform save Dominic Perrottet from polls suggesting he’ll lose power in NSW?

After 12 years in power the Coalition has an uphill fight, say analysts, with a hung parliament a possibility

The Conversation

Labor just ahead in two Queensland polls and retains large federal poll lead

The Poll Bludger reported on two Queensland polls on December 12. A YouGov poll for The Courier Mail, conducted December 1-8 from a sample of 1,000, had a 50-50 tie, unchanged since June. Primary votes were 38% LNP (steady), 34% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (down one), 11% One Nation (up…

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