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The Latest Breaking News from Kevin Bonham

Extra senators for ACT and NT will benefit left but increase malapportionment

The Poll Bludger has summarised the final report of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters (JSCEM) that was released Monday. The most contentious recommendation is that the number of senators for both the ACT and the Northern Territory be increased from two to four.

The Conversation

What the final polls are telling us: majority intends to vote no in voice referendum

There is no sign of a trend back to a yes vote, which has an estimated 41.5% support nationally – but needs to be closer to 53%

The Guardian - AU

Early election risk as only Liberal government on brink

An early election is in the hands of Tasmania's former attorney-general Elise Archer, with Australia's only Liberal administration on the brink of collapse.

AAP

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Polls show support for the voice is falling. How do they work, and will they be more accurate than in 2019?

Better demographic targeting and the ability to reach participants online among reasons pollsters are more confident in their predictions than previously

The Guardian - AU

Indigenous voice to parliament no campaign leading in every state, poll analysis shows

Support for voice has dropped by 21 percentage points nationally in the past year, according to Guardian Australia’s poll tracker

The Guardian - AU

Victoria's Labor Party plunges in a Morgan poll after Commonwealth Games axed

A Victorian Morgan SMS poll, conducted July 19–20 – the two days after Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews announced the 2026 Commonwealth Games would be cancelled – gave Labor a 53–47% lead over the Coalition, a huge 8.5-point gain for the Coalition since a May Morgan poll. The sample size was…

The Conversation

Yes campaign ‘keeping the faith’ despite declining polling for voice

Key members of the campaign for an Indigenous voice to parliament say they won’t be caught up analysing numbers as some polls show no vote growing

The Guardian - AU

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The devils and the detail of the $715m AFL stadium dividing Tasmania

A plan to build a new ground during a housing crisis has split the community – and could cost the state a football team

The Guardian - AU

Albanese's ratings improve in a post-budget Newspoll; left to control NSW upper house

A federal Newspoll, conducted May 11-13 from a sample of 1,516, is the first poll taken since the May 9 budget. It gave Labor a 55-45 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Labor (steady), 34% Coalition (up one),…

The Conversation

While the Voice has a large poll lead now, history of past referendums indicates it may struggle

Support for the Indigenous Voice to Parliament has dropped since the first polls that asked about it in late 2022. Analyst Kevin Bonham has plotted all the poll results, and the average Voice support is down from 65% in August 2022 to 57% now.

The Conversation

Last-minute win hampers NSW Labor's legislative agenda

The NSW government could have an uphill battle passing legislation after the final count left the upper house evenly split between Labor and the coalition.

AAP

Voice support increases in Essential and Resolve polls

In the latest Essential poll, support for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to parliament increased slightly to 60-40, from 59-41 in March. But hard “no” support was up two to 26%, soft “no” was down three to 14%, while 27% remained soft “yes” supporters.

The Conversation

Policy questions remain as NSW election nears

Nine days out from the NSW election, questions linger over key policies launched by the major parties.

The New Daily

Early voting in NSW begins on weekend

Early voting centres around NSW are preparing for strong demand as people who have already decided on a candidate are able to cast their vote from this weekend.

AAP

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The Conversation

Labor slides in a federal Newspoll; NSW polls give Labor a modest lead

A federal Newspoll, conducted March 1-4 from a sample of 1,530, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll in early February. Primary votes were 37% Labor (down one), 35% Coalition (up one), 10% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (up one) and…

The Guardian - AU

Can poker machine reform save Dominic Perrottet from polls suggesting he’ll lose power in NSW?

After 12 years in power the Coalition has an uphill fight, say analysts, with a hung parliament a possibility

The Conversation

Labor just ahead in two Queensland polls and retains large federal poll lead

The Poll Bludger reported on two Queensland polls on December 12. A YouGov poll for The Courier Mail, conducted December 1-8 from a sample of 1,000, had a 50-50 tie, unchanged since June. Primary votes were 38% LNP (steady), 34% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (down one), 11% One Nation (up…

The Conversation

Victorian Newspoll has Labor's lead down, but would still win with three weeks until election

The Victorian election will be held in three weeks, on November 26. A Newspoll, conducted October 31 to November 3 from a sample of 1,007, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the last Victorian Newspoll in late August.

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The Conversation

Labor extends big lead in Newspoll, but Morgan is much better for Coalition

This week’s Newspoll is the second since the May federal election, after the first appeared five weeks ago. Labor led by 57-43, a one point gain for Labor. Primary votes were 37% Labor (steady), 31% Coalition (down two), 13% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (up one), 2% UAP (steady)…

The Conversation

Record 85.7% of Greens preferenced Labor at federal election; electoral reform proposals

Under compulsory preferential voting, all formal votes must eventually preference one of the major parties over the other. The electoral commission has released preference flow information for all minor parties, This means we can tell, for example, how many Greens voters preferred Labor and how many the Coalition.

The Guardian - AU

Did the Morrison government try to suppress voting in the Northern Territory?

Anthony Albanese claims low voter turnout is result of tactics ‘straight out of the right-wing Republican playbook’. Is this true?

ABC News

Socialist Alliance candidate Pat O'Shane reflects on shifting the debate in far north Queensland

Kuku Yalanji woman Pat O'Shane's primary vote of just over 4 per cent may appear modest, but it is the Socialist Alliance's best-ever result in a seat outside Victoria and its best anywhere at this year's election.

ABC News

Tasmanian seats of Bass, Lyons edge closer to final results

As the counting of votes gets closer to finalising the result across Australia, those vying for undecided Tasmanian seats best keep the celebratory drinks on ice for a little while longer.

ABC News

Eric Abetz's political career looks doomed, with Jacqui Lambie Network's Tammy Tyrrell set to take Senate spot

After nearly three decades, Eric Abetz, a staunch conservative and defender of Christian values, looks to be out of a job. So, who is the Tasmanian Liberal and what do we know about the Jacqui Lambie Network candidate who appears to have won his seat in the Senate?

The Guardian - AU

Australian Greens hope election focus on climate will bring their biggest representation yet

Leaders eye balance of power as climate issues and independents boost the Greens’ electoral chances

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