The Latest Breaking News from Morgan

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Minor party preference flows for the federal election have been released, with Labor winning Greens preferences by 88.2–11.8, while the Coalition won One Nation preferences by 74.5–24.5. I also cover a SA state poll that gave Labor a massive 67–33 lead.

We now have the (almost!) final results from the 2025 federal election - with only Bradfield still to be completely resolved.

Buttons have been pressed to electronically distribute preferences for the Senate in Victoria, the ACT, Queensland and Western Australia. Labor gained a seat from the Liberals in Victoria, with the other two unchanged. I had a wrap of earlier button presses on Tuesday.

With 52% of enrolled voters counted, The Poll Bludger has Labor ahead in 92 of the 150 House of Representatives seats, the Coalition in 43, the Greens in two, independents in 11 and others in two. In called seats, Labor is on 76 (already a majority), the Coalition 32, independents…

With those who haven’t already cast a pre-poll vote ready to hit the polling places tomorrow, a final batch of polls give Labor a firm lead.

A YouGov MRP poll has Labor clearly winning a majority of seats in the federal election – 84 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives.

Labor leads by between 52–48 and 53–47 in four new national polls from Resolve, Essential, Morgan and DemosAU. While Labor’s vote slumped from a high 55.5–44.5 in Morgan to 53–47, such a slide hasn’t been seen in any other poll. Labor remains the likely winner of the election this Saturday.

While last week’s Morgan and YouGov polls had Labor continuing its surge, Newspoll is steady for the fourth successive week at 52–48 to Labor. A Redbridge poll of the marginal seats was again very strong for Labor, while YouGov and KJC seat polls were respectively good and bad for Labor.

With just eight days until the May 3 federal election, and with in-person early voting well under way, Labor has taken a seven-point lead in a national YouGov poll and an 11-point lead in a Morgan poll. An exit poll of early voters is also encouraging for Labor.

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