The March Fed meeting concluded today, March 18, with the central bank's latest policy decision.
Following three straight quarter-point rate cuts to end 2025 and with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell nearing the end of his term, the central bank kept the federal funds rate unchanged for a second straight meeting.
"The ongoing tension between the Fed's inflation and employment mandates has become harder to assess amid the conflict in Iran and the resulting rise in oil prices," says Lon Erickson, portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management. "The only material change to the statement was to acknowledge this increased difficulty."
This meeting also featured the quarterly release of the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections, or "dot plot," which shows where the committee expects the federal funds rate and inflation to be at the end of 2026.
"The changes to the SEP compared to December were relatively minor," says Erickson, who adds that "the Fed appears comfortable with current economic conditions, higher oil prices, and geopolitical concerns notwithstanding. "
The Kiplinger team reported live on the March Fed meeting, bringing you the news and our expert analysis of what it could mean for the economy. Scroll for the updates.
Big Change Coming to the Federal Reserve | How Does the Federal Reserve Work? | Quiz: How Well Do You Know the Fed?
Fed meeting schedule for 2026
The next Fed meeting, which runs from March 17 to March 18, marks the second gathering of 2026.
"The committee meets eight times a year, or about once every six weeks," writes Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows in his feature, "When Is the Next Fed Meeting?".
The Federal Open Market Committee "is required to meet at least four times a year and may convene additional meetings if necessary," Burrows adds, noting that "the convention of meeting eight times per year dates back to the market stresses of 1981."
Fed meetings last two days and wrap up with the release of a policy decision at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time. This is typically followed by the Fed chair's press conference at 2:30 pm.
Here is the full remaining Fed meeting schedule for 2026:
March 17 to 18
April 28 to 29
June 16 to 17
July 28 to 29
September 15 to 16
October 27 to 28
December 8 to 9
Housing market could keep inflation anchored, say Manulife John Hancock co-chief investment strategists
Recent inflation data has been mixed. The February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was lower on an annual basis compared to January – 2.4% vs 2.7% to start the year.
But the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – the Fed's preferred measure of inflation – came in at its highest level since March 2024.
Part of this difference, say Emily Roland and Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategists at Manulife John Hancock Investments, is that the CPI gives greater weight to shelter costs, which have been slowly trending down.
And while markets now consider the most recently reported CPI and PCE readings dated given that spiking energy costs – including higher gas prices – have raised inflation expectations and lowered rate-cut odds, the two believe shelter costs could provide some stability.
"While we are fully aware of the risk to inflation rising due to the oil price spike, we would not forget about shelter/housing as a key reason inflationary dynamics may be anchored to some degree," Roland and Miskin write in emailed commentary. "The 30-year fixed mortgage rate spiked last week from just over 6% to now nearly 6.5%. Higher mortgage rates, greater volatility in markets (hindering the growing wealth effect), and increased economic/policy uncertainty (likely to weigh on consumer confidence) could weigh further on the housing market as the year goes on."
This scenario, according to the strategists, "would suggest a more anchored inflation backdrop than the market’s knee-jerk reaction to higher oil prices we have seen recently."
- Karee Venema
Stocks are higher to start Fed week
Stocks are trading higher to start Fed week as bargain hunters swoop in following last week's third straight weekly loss for U.S. markets.
The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1.1% at 47,045, the broader S&P 500 is 1.2% higher at 6,708, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has gained 1.3% to 22,390.
Mega-cap stocks are creating tailwinds for the broader market. Meta Platforms (META), for one, is 3% higher on unconfirmed reports that the Facebook parent is planning to lay off 20% of its workforce.
And chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) is up 2.3% ahead of GTC, its annual artificial intelligence conference.
As for oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures are down 3.7% at $95.06 per barrel, but remain more than 40% higher month to date.
- Karee Venema
It's a big week for global central bank meetings
It's a big week for central bank meetings around the world. In addition to the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Bank of England (BoE) will be meeting to issue their latest policy decisions.
According to Jim Reid, global head of Macro Research and Thematic Strategy at Deutsche Bank, this marks the first time the four central banks have held their gatherings in the same week since December 2021.
"All of them will have a very complex backdrop to deal with, shaped by geopolitical risk, volatile energy prices, and unsettled inflation dynamics," Reid says. "Clearly, the Middle East is the center of attention for markets right now."
It's widely expected that all four central banks will leave interest rates unchanged this time around, says Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, but he expects the Fed and the Bank of England to resume rate cuts later this year.
Nathan doesn't expect rate cuts from the ECB until next year, while the BoJ will likely raise rates at some point down the road. "However, if the current spike in oil prices persists, we may need to revise these views as policymakers grapple with the conflicting inflationary pressure and brakes on economic growth that come with higher energy costs," he adds.
- Karee Venema
When does Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair end?
President Donald Trump has not been subtle in his dislike of Fed Chair Powell. But the question of whether or not Trump can fire Powell has quieted down in recent months, given that the Fed chair's term is up on May 15, 2026.
In January, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Chair Powell once his term is up. "Warsh was Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's right-hand man during the 2008-09 global financial crisis and was his primary liaison to Wall Street, which earned him credibility he still retains," writes Kiplinger investing editor David Dittman. "Markets see Warsh as a source of stability should Trump continue to pressure the central bank. He served on the Federal Reserve Board from February 2006 through March 2011."
However, Warsh's path to Fed chair is not guaranteed at this point. Indeed, Republican Senator Thom Tillis from North Carolina, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, has vowed to block any Federal Reserve nomination until a Department of Justice probe into Powell is resolved.
"This is about this is bedrock principle of Fed independence," Tillis told reporters earlier this month, according to CNBC. "The reason why I came out so strong so early is I believe that we, I, have no earthly idea what the market reaction would have been if suddenly the perception is that the Fed chair serves at the pleasure of the President, right?"
Tillis also called the administration's efforts to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook are "sophomoric." However, the senator said he is "already impressed" with Warsh.
For what it's worth, Powell's term as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve ends on January 31, 2028.
- Karee Venema
The DOJ's probe into Chair Powell gets dealt a legal blow … for now
In January, the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas regarding a multi-year renovation project at the central bank's headquarters in Washington, D.C., as part of a criminal investigation into Chair Powell.
Powell, in a historic move for a Fed chair, quickly responded to the allegations that he gave false statements to Congress regarding the renovations.
"This unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the administration's threats and ongoing pressure," Powell said in a video statement. "The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President."
The investigation is seen as a threat to the Federal Reserve's independence and has received criticism from around Wall Street. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon, for one, said that "anything that chips away at" the Fed's independence "is not a good idea."
Meanwhile, Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina and member of the Senate Banking Committee, has threatened to block any Federal Reserve nomination until this issue is resolved.
And on Friday, March 13, it appeared the DOJ was hit with a legal blow when James Boasberg, a federal judge in Washington, tossed out the two subpoenas served to the central bank.
"There is abundant evidence that the subpoenas' dominant (if not sole) purpose is to harass and pressure Powell either to yield to the president or to resign and make way for a Fed chair who will," Boasberg wrote in his 27-page decision. "On the other side of the scale, the government has offered no evidence whatsoever that Powell committed any crime other than displeasing the president."
However, this is not the end of the road for the investigation. Jeanine Pirro, U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, said she will appeal the decision and file a motion asking Judge Boasberg to reconsider.
- Karee Venema
Who gets to vote at the March Fed meeting?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has 12 total members, eight permanent and four who rotate each year.
The eight permanent voting committee members include the Fed chair and vice chair, the five Fed governors and the president of the New York Fed.
Four regional Fed presidents are rotated in each calendar year.
The 2026 FOMC voting committee consists of:
Fed Chair Jerome Powell*
Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
Fed Governor Michael Barr
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
Fed Governor Lisa Cook
Fed Governor Stephen Miran**
Fed Governor Christopher Waller
New York Fed President John Williams
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan
Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson
In 2027, the presidents from Chicago, Richmond, Atlanta and San Francisco will rotate in as FOMC voting members, according to the Federal Reserve.
* Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair is up in May 15, 2026
** Stephen Miran's term as Fed governor was up on January 31, 2026, but he will continue to serve in the role until a successor is approved
- Karee Venema
Oil prices, inflation expectations are likely to keep the Fed sidelined this week
Expectations for Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting are that the Fed will stand pat on interest rates.
The central bank is not going to want to make a move on short-term rates, either up or down, until they see what is going to happen with oil prices and the resulting impact on inflation expectations.
- David Payne
There are "no guarantees" oil prices will fall soon, says Trump's energy secretary
Oil prices have spiked to their highest level in four years as a result of the Iran war. Both West Texas Intermediate crude – the U.S. benchmark for oil prices – and Brent crude, the international benchmark, are up more than 40% for the month to date.
And according to AAA, the average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. is 27% higher than it was a month ago. Rising gas prices are having a direct impact on consumer sentiment, too, as seen in the University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for March, which was released last Friday.
The index was down 1.9% vs February, with gasoline prices having "the most immediate impact felt by consumers," says Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.
Hsu notes that the survey, which was conducted between February 17 and March 9, also showed that "a broad swath of consumers across incomes, age, and political affiliation all reported declines in expectations for their personal finances, down 7.5% nationally."
And gas prices could stay elevated for the time being. Speaking on ABC's "This Week" on Sunday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said there are "no guarantees" that oil prices will come down in the near term.
"Right now, our focus is destroying their military capabilities, including those that are used specifically to threaten the straits," Wright noted. "But we need to finish those tasks first, and you will see the straits open again in the not-too-distant future."
He added that the administration is aware the conflict "would cause a little bit of increased prices on Americans," but said, "this is short-term pain to get through to a much better place."
- Karee Venema
Related: War in Iran Threatens Higher Fuel Prices, Renewed Inflation
Where have all the Fed speakers been?
The Fed-speak has been nonexistent over the past week or so. That's by design. Since Saturday, March 7, and until Thursday, March 19, participants in the FOMC meeting have been bound by a Federal Reserve policy that limits the extent to which they can talk about the economy and interest rates.
These two-week "blackout periods" begin the second Saturday that falls 10 days before the next FOMC meeting and end the Thursday that follows the meeting. The Fed's blackout period was an unofficial practice that began in the 1980s. It was formalized in 2011 and reaffirmed in January 2025.
Fed-watchers see the policy as a measure against corruption and the potential for information leaks to distort markets. It also provides cover for open discussion during the Fed's most intense periods of policy-making.
Here is a schedule for all blackout periods through January 2028.
- David Dittman
The Fed's near-term inflation forecast is likely to change given higher oil prices, says Johnson Investment Counsel's chief economist
Brandon Zureick, chief economist and senior managing director at Johnson Investment Counsel, says that it's widely expected the FOMC leaves the federal funds rate at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75% when it concludes its March gathering this Wednesday afternoon, though he believes the Fed "is likely to acknowledge uncertainty related to the war with Iran."
Zureick notes that crude oil is up by more than 50% since the January Fed meeting. "This is likely to raise the Fed's forecast for inflation in the near term, while also weighing on the outlook for economic growth," he says. Investors will see how the Fed's forecast has evolved, given the ongoing conflict in Iran, in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
He adds that as part of the SEP, the Fed will also release its forecast for interest rates, known as the "dot plot."
"While it is possible that a few FOMC members could adjust their interest rate forecasts to include less potential policy easing, considering higher energy prices, the overall rate forecast from the Fed is unlikely to change materially," says the economist.
Zureick also believes that with Powell's term nearing its end, the Fed chair is "unlikely to comment directly about the upcoming leadership change," leaving investors "to consider how policy may evolve under Kevin Warsh – the President's nominee."
- Karee Venema
Stocks close Monday with big gains, oil prices retreat
Stocks opened the week much higher as bargain hunters swooped in following three straight weekly losses. Oil prices were also on the move, only the price action was to the downside, as President Donald Trump called on U.S. allies to help escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
While no nation has publicly committed to assist the U.S., according to The Wall Street Journal, front-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 5.3% today to settle at $95.50 per barrel.
As for the main indexes, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.8% at 46,946, the broader S&P 500 was 1.0% higher at 6,699, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had gained 1.2% to 22,374.
Read more: Stocks Open Higher to Start Fed Week: Stock Market Today
Futures turn positive as Fed meeting begins
Equity index futures recovered from an early decline on Tuesday and pointed to a positive open for U.S. stocks on the first day of the second Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of 2026.
The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract is trading 2.7% higher after Israel said it killed Iran's top security official and the Islamic Republic struck a natural gas field in the United Arab Emirates.
Treasury yields inched lower, with the 2-year down to 3.665% vs 3.68% on Monday, the 10-year at 4.206% vs 4.22% and the 30-year down to 4.855% from 4.858%.
Investors, traders and speculators as well as monetary policymakers are closely tuned to what's happening in the Middle East and the flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
"The Hormuz closure is turning a shipping disruption into a true global supply loss as storage in the region fills and upstream shut-ins rise," Morgan Stanley Global Director of Research Katy Huberty writes.
Though offsets to lost supply can only replace "a fraction of the barrels lost" via the strait, according to Huberty "the bar remains high for the oil spike to threaten the business/earnings cycle."
The Fed's approach during similar events in the past was to look through short-term spikes in crude oil prices due to geopolitical events while continuing to balance inflation and economic growth risks.
"The central bank is widely expected to remain on the sidelines," BMO Senior Economist Priscilla Thiagamoorthy writes, "with markets focused less on the actual decision itself, and more on signals around inflation, oil price shocks and the path of future monetary policy."
– David Dittman
The Fed is likely to be less intense about crude oil
All three main U.S. equity indexes held solid gains about an hour into the trading session on the first day of a Fed meeting made more complicated by a war in the Middle East.
Markets and monetary policymakers must weigh the impact of higher oil prices. Indeed, is it a good time to chase energy stocks as oil prices spike?
Well, that depends. In addition to your risk tolerance, time horizon and objectives, you'll want to think about how high crude oil prices will go from here and how long they will stay there. (Just like the Fed, in fact…)
While oil is still a critical factor in our economy, we just aren't as intense about it. "Lower oil 'intensity' – less oil used per dollar of economic output – means energy shocks have a smaller impact on growth than in past decades," LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach explains.
And on the supply side, the U.S. is now a net exporter of products made from crude oil. "Because we produce more than we import," Roach elaborates, "the economy is less affected by volatile oil prices than during the 1970s and '80s, for example."
At the same time, Roach writes, "Despite less reliance on oil, higher oil prices will add pressure to inflation. If energy costs stay elevated, inflation could rise again, potentially delaying interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve."
Bottom line: "Geopolitical uncertainty remains a risk," the economist concludes. "Conflicts in the Middle East could disrupt supply chains and increase price volatility in key commodities like oil."
– David Dittman
A survey of former Fed officials says…
The war in the Middle East will contribute to higher inflation and more unemployment this year, a regular survey of former Federal Reserve officials (pdf) says, and there’s little the U.S. central bank can do about it
Former officials forecast 3% inflation vs the Fed's 2.4% projection, current as of December. The Fed's long-term inflation target is 2%. The former officials estimate unemployment at 4.6% vs. a Fed estimate of 4.4% and a long-term "normal" rate of 4.2%.
Though they agree the U.S. is not currently in recession or heading toward such a slowdown, they do project slower economic growth. And that could change based on the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the extent of disruptions to global crude oil flows.
Jon Hilsenrath, the original "Fed whisperer" at The Wall Street Journal who is now a visiting scholar at Duke, asked 28 former officials and staff members about the substance of the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) between March 6 and March 13.
Hilsenrath conducts his survey on a quarterly basis coincident with the release of the SEP. His panel includes former Fed governors, regional bank presidents and researchers.
– David Dittman
The Fed chair and the price of oil
Pretty soon we'll be talking about Fed Chair Jerome Powell's last FOMC meeting and press conference. That's on the economic calendar for April 28-29. Assuming he's confirmed, soon we'll be talking about Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as the new Fed chair, scheduled for June 16-17.
CME FedWatch still suggests a Warsh Fed will be more likely to cut interest rates than the Powell Fed is, but the probabilities are shifting in favor of meetings further out on the calendar, along with potential upward pressure on inflation from spiking crude oil prices.
Indeed, futures pricing shows an 80.8% probability the federal funds rate remains in a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% come June 17, up from 78.0% on Monday, 58.3% a week ago and 36.6% a month ago.
Note that the price of the front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up 50.0% from the close on February 17 through the close on March 16.
Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen still expects the Fed to cut as soon as Powell departs. "We're still on June and September," Gapen told Bloomberg, "with the risk of course it gets delayed." Gapen added that "the later and maybe the longer the Fed waits, the more it has to put in maybe an additional rate cut."
The economist said that "a reasonable recession probability" doesn't arise until crude oil prices get to $125 to $150 for a prolonged period. "The economy can handle $90 to $100 per barrel prices," he concluded.
– David Dittman
What if the Fed's next move is a rate hike?
We just talked about an out-of-consensus view on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and when it will cut interest rates.
According to CME FedWatch, the market is almost 100% sure the Fed's next move will be to lower the federal funds rate, whether in June or later in 2026.
Of course, "almost" is doing the work here, and High Frequency Economics Chief Economist Carl Weinberg made at least one headline with his call for this week's Fed meeting.
As MarketWatch reports, Weinberg last week wrote in a note to clients that "the Fed's job is to minimize the risk of the worst-possible outcome," which he says is prices accelerating above the central bank's 2% inflation target.
“Even if the FOMC does not hike," and Weinberg refuses to rule out such a move this week, "officials will surely talk about it, and we expect Mr. Powell will let us know about it at his press conference."
– David Dittman
When the FOMC meeting is "the other big news"
"The big news this week," Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates observes, "will be Nvidia’s (NVDA) developers’ conference." The tech stock, which is down more than 6% since management reported earnings last month, "looks very strong and is a great oasis stock for nervous investors."
NVDA has added more than 1% this week. As Navellier notes, leader of the AI revolution "is already helping to boost storage companies," including Micron Technology (MU) and Seagate Technology (STX) as well as AI hardware stocks "that speed up optical connections," such as Ciena (CIEN) and Ubiquiti (UI).
"The other big news," Navellier writes, "will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the FOMC statement." Navellier expects the Fed to say it's "carefully monitoring" the employment situation, as the February jobs report marked the fifth month of losses in the past nine.
"Additionally," he says, "I hope the FOMC will stay that they expect that food and energy inflation will be 'transitory' due to the bombing in Iran that disrupted the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz."
The three main U.S. equity indexes were holding modest gains heading into the last hour of trading on the first day of the March Fed meeting, with nine of 11 sectors in positive territory.
The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up 3.3% but has retreated from recent highs above $100.
"Now that the U.S. bombed the Kharg Island with Iran’s deepwater access for supertankers, the U.S. is now effectively in control of Iran’s crude oil revenue," Navellier concludes. "It is likely that Iran and the U.S. will be negotiating soon, so that is providing some temporary crude oil price relief."
– David Dittman
Why present is prologue for the fed funds rate
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to talk about interest rates, inflation and employment. The FOMC releases its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) – the "dot plot" you'll hear so much about tomorrow – four times a year, in March, June, September and December.
Indeed, the updated SEP will be "a key point" on Wednesday, as Deutsche Bank strategist Matthew Raskin writes. "Our economists expect the median headline and core PCE inflation projections for this year to move up to 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively, with all other median economic projections unchanged."
Deutsche Bank economists expect "no revisions to the median calendar year fed funds rate projections but anticipate the median longer-run dot will inch up a tenth to 3.1%." And here's the thing about that…
Raskin describes a set of U.S. Treasury market term structure-based models that offer clues when and where the "neutral rate might be expected to move materially in the future (as may be the case today given the potential effects of AI)."
Those models indicated a "substantial markdown in SEP projections" during the 2010s, suggesting their probative value. "The range of term structure-based estimates currently spans 3.0-3.8% with a median of 3.7%, firmly above the SEP median even if it moves up as we expect," Raskin observes.
"That is, through the lens of these models," the strategist concludes, "the curve embeds expectations that the Fed’s policy rate will ultimately settle around its current level."
– David Dittman
Higher oil prices can't keep stocks down
Stocks opened comfortably higher Tuesday, but lost steam as the session wore on as market participants weighed the latest developments in the Middle East. Rising oil prices were also in focus as the Federal Reserve kicked off its March meeting.
At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.1% higher at 46,993, the broader S&P 500 was up 0.3% at 6,716, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had gained 0.5% to 22,479.
Front-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 2.9% to settle at $96.21 per barrel, and are now up nearly 44% for the month to date.
While the central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, Wall Street will be watching to see how higher energy costs will impact the Fed's inflation forecast and rate-cut plans.
Read more: Higher Oil Prices Can't Keep Stocks Down: Stock Market Today
We've got three weeks until the real energy shock
It's fair to assume the central bank has people on staff doing this kind of work too, but let's turn it over to BMO Senior Economist Erik Johnson for an estimate of when crude oil's rise might begin to have a real impact on things the Fed pays attention to such as inflation.
The problem is approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz during normal times. These are not normal times.
As Johnson explains, tanker crossings have plunged from 50 to 80 per week in each direction to nearly zero in the third week of a disruption that's likely removed approximately 180 million to 250 million barrels from global supply.
"A coordinated 400-million-barrel IEA-led SPR release will help cushion the shortfall over the coming month," Johnson estimates. Based on his assumptions for output from the Persian Gulf, the coordinated effort can replace approximately 16 to 22 days of normal flow through the Strait to global markets.
"That implies the U.S. and Israel have roughly three weeks to reach an offramp before upward pressure on oil prices intensifies further," Johnson concludes.
Meanwhile, as the economist also explains, "Fuel oil is a core input for maritime freight, and food commodities remain among the most shipping-intensive goods in world trade."
Global food prices were trending lower before the war in the Middle East. "Since 2008," Johnson writes, "year-over-year changes in Singapore fuel-oil prices and the FAO Food Price Index have exhibited a strong positive correlation."
So another risk to mind here is "that prolonged fuel-price pressure could trigger a renewed acceleration in global food inflation."
That would be hard on emerging markets, which generally import a lot of fuel and food. It would also be hard on central banks, including the Fed, which "could face widening headline–core inflation gaps, complicating monetary policy decisions," as Johnson notes.
And, of course, it would also be hard on people: "Food inflation is one of the most salient categories for households," the economist concludes.
– David Dittman
Stock futures point lower after hot PPI data
The main indexes are poised for a lower open on Wednesday after a hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, which measures wholesale prices, rose 0.7% month over month in February, faster than December's 0.4% increase and January's 0.5% rise. Economists expected PPI to be up 0.3%
Year over year, PPI was up 3.4%, its largest annual increase since February 2025.
"Both services as well as goods prices were very strong, underscoring the risks for monetary policy," write Eugenio J. Alemán, Ph.D., chief economist, and Giampiero Fuentes, economist at Raymond James. "This report likely reinforces a hold decision by the Federal Reserve later today but tilts the risk toward a more hawkish tone in today's FOMC decision."
At last check, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 were all down 0.6%.
- Karee Venema
How can investors prepare for market volatility?
The stock market has made some major one-day moves in recent weeks. Just today, futures were signaling a higher open until a red-hot inflation report quickly sent them tumbling into the red.
And the escalating conflict in Iran, which has boosted energy prices and ramped up inflation concerns, certainly doesn't ease investors' worries.
"We find ourselves in an interesting place with the potential for continued volatility given the myriad of economic and geopolitical risks that hang over markets," says Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company.
But Schutte says it's important for investors to remember that "the proper response is not one of dramatic action or large shifts in portfolio construction but rather a continued steady hand. After all, your portfolio asset allocation already reflects the reality that these various outcomes have been and unfortunately will be future features of both economies and equity markets."
He adds that this is "what diversification is built for," including different assets in your portfolio that do well in different scenarios. Because "uncertainty spikes are just that — a historical and likely future reality."
There's no one way to build your portfolio to guard against uncertainty. It's really up to you and your financial goals. But including high-quality core stocks that provide stability to your portfolio is a good place to start, while the addition of low-cost index funds is another way to navigate the ups and downs of the market.
- Karee Venema
What time will the Fed statement be released and what changes are expected?
The Federal Open Market Committee will release its updated policy statement at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time today, March 18.
"Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. Inflation remains somewhat elevated," the committee wrote in its January statement. "Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate."
As such, the FOMC voted to keep the federal funds rate at its current range of 3.50% to 3.75%.
Wells Fargo economists Tom Porcelli, Sarah House and Michael Pugliese don't anticipate any dramatic changes to the March FOMC statement.
"We expect it to highlight additional uncertainty in the outlook due to the Iran conflict," the group notes. And following a much weaker-than-anticipated February jobs report, the economists say they "would not be surprised if the language around 'some signs of stabilization' in unemployment is tweaked to be a bit more pessimistic."
- Karee Venema
What time does Jerome Powell speak today?
Fed Chair Powell will host a press conference at 2:30 pm Eastern Standard Time today, March 18.
Deutsche Bank economists believe Chair Powell will underscore "that significant uncertainty remains," and explain "how recent events could impact the economy and monetary policy."
The economists expect Powell to note that monetary policy is in a solid position to withstand any consequences of these risks and that the Federal Reserve is monitoring these events closely.
"Fundamentally, the latest oil price spike represents another adverse supply shock that would, at the margin, create further tensions between the Fed’s dual mandates, all else equal," they write. "While markets have interpreted these developments as leaning hawkish for the Fed – an interpretation we agree with directionally – Powell is unlikely to give a strong signal about how near-term policy has been affected, if at all."
As for any questions regarding rate hikes, the economists believe Chair Powell will "likely point to the SEP and reiterate the value of such diverse views on the Committee."
- Karee Venema
A "tricky trifecta" will keep the Fed sidelined today, says HB Wealth's chief market strategist
The Federal Reserve is likely to remain sidelined at its March meeting "as markets focus near term on the tricky trifecta of war, AI and private credit," says Gina Martin Adams, chief market strategist at HB Wealth. In addition, Powell is a "lame duck" as he nears the end of his term as Fed chair.
"Given we've only seen inflation pressures escalate in the short run, and that the general consensus view is the war will end in short order, it is hard to make a case that the Fed should be doing anything but sitting tight at this time," she adds.
Martin Adams notes that oil prices remain the "clear short-term driver" of price action. And she believes some similarities can be drawn to the 2022 oil supply shock, including that "continued supply chain constraints threaten to elevate BOTH food and energy prices."
The strategist explains that stocks initially shrugged off the spike in oil prices in 2022, assuming the Russia-Ukraine war would be short-lived. "In the first two weeks of the Russia-Ukraine war, the S&P 500 dropped just 0.6%," Martin Adds says. "That year, it took two months of elevated commodity prices to dismantle the equity market's sanguine view, and five months of elevated oil prices to create a recession in earnings."
In the bigger picture, she feels a swift end to the war in Iran and a settling of oil prices will refocus the market's attention on AI and private credit, which were both "struggling well before the war broke out."
- Karee Venema
Powell & his purple ties
It's a near-certainty that the FOMC will keep rates unchanged today. It's also likely that Fed Chair Powell will wear a purple tie during Wednesday's press conference.
That's because Powell always wears a purple tie … and there's a reason for it.
During an early April Q&A session with journalists at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing conference, Powell was asked about the significance of his purple ties.
"At the beginning, the only significance was that I like purple ties," Powell replied. At his next press conference, he said he went to reach for a red or blue tie and thought, "Maybe not … so I wind up wearing purple."
He said now it's become "a thing," and it supports the fact that the Fed "is strictly non-political" and "bipartisan," and purple is a good color for that.
"Plus, I like purple ties," Powell concluded.
- Karee Venema
Dow Jones dives 440 points ahead of Fed's interest rate decision
With a little under 45 minutes to go until the Fed's interest rate decision, stocks are trading in negative territory.
At last check, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.9% at 46,551, the broader S&P 500 was off 0.8% at 6,665, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was 0.9% lower at 22,285.
Markets are reacting to this morning's hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data for February and another spike in oil prices. Front-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures are up 2% to trade at $98.12 per barrel.
Over in the bond market, the yield on the 2-year Treasury is up 4.9 basis points at 3.72%, while the 10-year Treasury yield is 3.2 basis points higher at 4.234%. (A basis point = 0.01%.)
- Karee Venema
The Fed decision on interest rates is in
The Federal Reserve paused once again in March, keeping the federal funds rate at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%, as expected.
What changed in the FOMC's latest policy statement
Changes to the FOMC's latest policy statement include the following:
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. (Previously read: Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.)
Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. (Previously read: Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.)
- Karee Venema
Where can I watch Fed Chair Powell's press conference?
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference will begin at 2:30 pm Eastern Standard Time this afternoon.
The presser can be viewed on the Federal Reserve's website or on the Fed's YouTube channel.
What did the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections show?
Federal Open Market Committee members left their forecast for near-term interest rates unchanged from December, calling for just one quarter-point rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027.
However, their longer-run outlook for the federal funds rate rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in December.
The committee expects real gross domestic product (GDP) to be slightly higher than previously forecast, at 2.4% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. Projections for the unemployment rate were relatively unchanged, though the FOMC expects it to be at 4.3% in 2028, a tick higher than its prior outlook of 4.2%.
The Fed's inflation outlook for 2026 was higher, rising to 2.7% vs December's 2.5% projection.
You can see the FOMC's full Summary of Economic Projections here.
- Karee Venema
The Fed's "wait-and-see" approach is appropriate, says WFII co-head of Global Fixed Income Strategy
"Coming into 2026, we expected two Fed rate cuts," says Luis Alvarado, co-head of Global Fixed Income Strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. "However, the balance of risks has shifted, and the bar for cutting rates has risen meaningfully."
As such, he believes the central bank's currently "wait-and-see" approach is appropriate.
Alvarado feels like the current backdrop is sort of a déjà vu for the Fed. "Policymakers are once again navigating competing objectives of bringing inflation down while avoiding unnecessary stress on growth and labor markets. That tension is likely to define monetary policy discussions throughout 2026."
And despite composition changes coming to the committee in Q2, Alvarado does not anticipate a major shift in policy direction. "The dot plot continues to show a wide range of views, underscoring uncertainty rather than a decisive pivot."
- Karee Venema
Powell talks about how the Fed is looking at rising energy prices
Asked how the Fed will react to the ongoing rise in energy prices due to the war in Iran, Powell said that the most important thing the central bank is looking for is whether inflation in goods caused by tariffs on imports is easing.
But he also acknowledged that inflation has been above the Fed's target for the past five years, which will complicate how, or whether, he and his colleagues will be able to discount the impact of rising oil prices on inflation.
Normally, the Fed "looks through" such shocks, but it sounds like it won't necessarily do that this time.
- Jim Patterson
Powell: Nobody knows how oil prices will impact the broader economy
"We haven't seen the progress we'd hoped for" on inflation in goods prices easing, due in part to the White House's tariff policies, Powell said.
Asked whether he is also concerned that the economy could suffer as consumers spend more on gas and less on everything else, Powell said that "nobody knows" at this point. "We just don't know" yet how significant the impact of the spike in oil prices could be for the broad economy.
He noted that it could weigh on consumer spending and consumer sentiment. But he also allowed for the possibility that the effect won't be that significant.
- Jim Patterson
Is there an upside to higher oil prices?
Is there an upside to higher oil prices, since the U.S. is the world's largest oil producer?
Powell seemed cautious about predicting one, noting that energy companies are going to want to see oil prices elevated for an extended period of time before they decide to drill and produce more oil.
"But some of that could happen over time" if the rise in oil prices proves durable.
- Jim Patterson
Powell believes inflation in goods prices is a one-time issue due to tariffs vs a systemic risk
"We worry a lot" about whether higher oil prices could cause consumers to begin expecting inflation to rise in the long run, which could become a self-fulfilling prophecy if people start buying more things in anticipation of higher prices later.
But Powell also noted that he thinks interest rates are currently high enough to keep pushing inflation down in the long run, even with the near-term price pressures from tariffs and rising fuel prices.
He regards the inflation in goods prices as largely the result of tariffs, which should act as a one-time boost to prices, as opposed to a systemic problem.
- Jim Patterson
Is Powell more concerned about the labor market or inflation?
What about the lackluster jobs market, where hiring has been slack recently?
Asked if he is more concerned about slowing job creation than inflation, Powell said no, noting that inflation is "well above" where the Fed wants it to be, "and that's a concern; we need to get back down to 2% ... I'd be hard-pressed to say that" unemployment or inflation is the bigger worry. Both are equal concerns.
- Jim Patterson
Powell will temporarily stay on as Fed chair if Warsh is not confirmed by the end of his term
When asked if he will stay on as Fed chair if nominee Kevin Warsh is not yet confirmed by the end of his term in May, Powell said he would on an interim basis, as dictated by law.
However, Powell said he has not yet decided if he will stay on the Fed's Board of Governors beyond the end of his run as Fed chair. His term on the board ends on January 31, 2028.
- David Payne
Despite weak jobs numbers in February, Powell says there are signs of stability in the labor market
Asked whether the February jobs report, which showed a loss of jobs, was a concern for the broader economy, Powell said that it should be combined with the better-than-expected job creation number in January.
"There are a number of indicators that suggest a degree of stability" in the labor market, but the Fed is still concerned about the trend of low job creation in recent months, with "effectively zero net job creation in the private sector."
However, he also noted that there is little or no growth in the labor force, due in part to restrictive immigration policies. So maybe the economy is balanced, with little demand for new workers, and little supply of them.
- Jim Patterson
Financial markets brace for no rate cuts this year
As Powell spoke, and noted that the Fed does not have high confidence in its projection for a single rate cut sometime this year, financial markets adjusted down the odds of seeing an interest rate cut.
Coming into the meeting, the consensus was a slight preference for one cut, but now markets are leaning toward the Fed standing still on rates this year. Perhaps that is due to Powell emphasizing that inflation is as big a concern for the Fed as weak job creation.
- David Payne
How worried should we be about higher gas and food prices?
Asked pointedly if American consumers should be worried about an extended period of high gas prices and a rise in food prices due to reduced fertilizer exports from the Middle East, Powell declined to make a forecast, emphasizing that the situation with the war in Iran is simply too volatile for the Fed to make any projections right now.
- Jim Patterson
The economy is holding up well, says Powell
"The U.S. economy has really been doing pretty well through a lot of significant challenges over the past few years," Powell said, when asked how much the Fed thinks it can predict about the impact of the Iran war.
He noted that a lot of economists expected a recession in 2022 when soaring inflation forced the Fed to jack up interest rates, yet the economy ended up doing well. Something similar could happen now, even if the war drives up certain costs and adds to inflation.
The economy has been resilient, was his message. But he also conceded that the Fed just doesn't know if it will shrug off this latest inflationary shock.
- David Payne
Is sticky inflation starting to weigh on consumer psychology? Powell thinks so
After five years of above-target inflation, what does Powell think the impact on consumer psychology has been?
"If you talk to people, they do feel squeezed." Some costs, such as insurance, are still rising at especially steep rates, he noted.
Those pressures just make the Fed even more determined to succeed at its legally mandated task of achieving price stability over the long term, Powell said.
He also mentioned that keeping the Fed independent of political pressures is critical to achieving that goal, which implies not cutting interest rates too much or too fast if prices are rising too fast.
- Jim Patterson
Dot plot signals "greater cohesion" among Fed members, says Mission Wealth CIO
"As expected, the Fed held rates steady at its March FOMC meeting," says Kieran Osborne, partner and chief investment officer at Mission Wealth. "The statement highlighted an uncertain economic backdrop, driven primarily by the Middle East conflict and the associated spike in oil prices."
Osborne points to the "dot plot," which was little changed vs December, showing "modestly increasing expectations for near-term economic growth and indicated slightly higher inflation projections — likely reflecting elevated oil prices."
Most importantly, Osborne says, "there was no change to the broader trajectory of monetary policy."
Osborne points to the fact that there was just one dissenter this time — Stephen Miran — which suggests "greater cohesion among voting members on monetary policy. Ahead of the meeting, expectations were for two to three dovish dissents. Both Miran and Waller dissented in favor of a 25 bp rate cut at the January meeting, and there had been some expectation that Bowman might join them this time around."
- Karee Venema
Powell says productivity is the reason behind the upwardly revised GDP forecasts
When asked whether the upwardly revised growth estimates in the Summary of Economic Projections are due to AI productivity, Powell said it was "just productivity."
He noted that they first saw productivity start to improve during the pandemic, even before generative AI. This is unusual for productivity to grow this strongly over such a long period of time. It's key to improving living standards.
Building data centers everywhere stimulates the economy, so rates could rise in the short term. But in the long term, the pressure on rates will be determined by which is stronger - the demand or supply side.
- David Payne
There's little sense of urgency for the Fed to move on interest rates, says Vaster's managing director
"The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady reinforces a cautious stance toward inflation, with the updated Summary of Economic Projections signaling that inflation may remain more persistent than previously expected," says Zack Simkins, managing director at Vaster.
The lingering uncertainty over rising energy prices and the conflict in the Middle East creates "little urgency for the Fed to make any abrupt moves," he adds.
Simkins adds that the FOMC's outlook signals "a continuation of the current rate environment, with any potential easing likely to be gradual."
Higher-for-longer interest rates could dampen some risk appetite, says Simkins, but they also provide "greater clarity for capital allocation decisions across asset classes. That added predictability is helping reduce volatility and gradually bring liquidity back into the market, particularly across more rate-sensitive sectors."
- Karee Venema
Stocks close lower after March Fed meeting
Stocks sold off Wednesday after the Federal Reserve did as expected and held its benchmark overnight lending rate steady, but signaled a growing concern with inflationary pressures.
The main U.S. equity indexes opened lower on hotter-than-expected wholesale price data, and crude oil's continuing rise helped keep a lid on risk appetite. The conclusion of the Fed meeting weighed on most sectors and industries late in the trading session.
At the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.6% at 46,224, the broad-based S&P 500 was off 1.4% at 6,624, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had lost 1.5% to 22,152.
Read more: Dow Slides 768 Points on Inflation Fears: Stock Market Today
Wednesday's post-Fed sell-off signals overly optimistic expectations, says Johnson Investment Counsel's chief economist
The FOMC's decision to stand pat on rates was expected, says Brandon Zureick, chief economist and senior managing director at Johnson Investment Counsel. And "while the Fed's assessment of the economy was little changed, they did acknowledge that 'The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain.'"
The Summary of Economic Projections signaled slightly higher forecasts for both economic growth and inflation, while the median forecast called for one additional cut in both 2026 and 2027, unchanged from the December forecast, he adds.
Zureick says that this makes clear the Federal Reserve is adopting a "wait-and-see" approach, "acknowledging that recent geopolitical developments are risks to both inflation and economic growth, but it is too early to take any policy action as a result."
While the FOMC's statement and SEP forecasts were fairly uneventful, the economist feels Chair Powell's press conference shed light on how he's approaching the uncertainty. "Specifically, he pushed back on the idea of near-term rate cuts and sounded a bit more hawkish regarding the outlook for inflation."
The subsequent stock sell-off is "a sign that perhaps investors were overly optimistic about the timing of additional policy easing," Zureick explains.
- Karee Venema
