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The Latest Breaking News from GDP

US debt could explode above 200% of GDP in two decades if Trump's tax cuts become permanent, CBO says — putting it at unsustainable levels

"Macroeconomic feedback effects would further increase interest rates and, therefore, lead to even worse fiscal outcomes," the Peter G. Peterson Foundation warned.

Fortune

US-EU trade war could cost Ireland more than €18bn, says report

Report co-authored by Irish government also finds tariffs could cause job losses and relocation of US multinationals

The Guardian - UK

Lengthy trade wars could cut global investment by one-tenth, warn economists

Uncertainty around trade will have a major impact on global growth, reducing business investment in the EU and the UK by 2% this year, Oxford Economics finds.

Euronews

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Amid a grimmer outlook from the Fed, there’s a lone, mysterious holdout predicting stronger economic growth

The Fed’s consensus for GDP growth dropped from 2.1% to 1.7% after its latest round of economic forecasts published Wednesday.

Fortune

Taiwan's president says the defense budget will exceed 3% of GDP in military overhaul

Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te said Thursday that the island’s defense budget will exceed 3% of its economic output as it overhauls its military in the face of the rising threat from China

The Independent UK

Brian Moynihan says consumers are in a ‘classic’ situation of worrying about money but continuing to spend

Brian Moynihan said consumers, once again, are the backbone quietly propping up the American economy.

Fortune

How Covid changed the British state

Surge in national debt and NHS backlog altered the economy and expectations around crisis management

The Guardian - UK

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Why has the UK government announced swingeing welfare cuts?

Prime Minister Keir Starmer says cuts will save UK billions per year, but advocacy groups slam move as ‘immoral’.

Al Jazeera

European defence spending: three technical reasons for political cooperation

How much would it really cost the European Union to defend itself against aggression? In the immediate term, that question, of course makes us think of Russia, but we can no longer exclude multiple other possibilities, including the potential need to defend territory – say, Greenland – from a former…

The Conversation

Millennials choosing to be DINKs could push GDP down by as much as 4%

"By the time you get to 2030, you're talking about a birth rate that is wildly different to what was in the assumptions made at the beginning of the decade."

Fortune

Is Trump driving the US into a recession? – in charts

Warning lights are flashing on a dashboard of economic indicators as analysts grow alarmed about a ‘Trumpcession’

The Guardian - UK

Treasurer Chalmers promises ‘meaningful and substantial’ cost of living help in Tuesday’s budget

Next week’s budget will have cost-of-living assistance that will be meaningful and substantial but “responsible”, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has said.

The Conversation

Is Trump's Trade War Causing a Recession?

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast plunged into recessionary territory, stocks wiped out $4 trillion in value, and consumers are pulling back. How long will Washington ignore the warning signs?

Reason

OECD trims eurozone growth outlook as global trade tensions bite

The OECD has lowered its eurozone GDP growth forecast to 1.0% for 2025, down from 1.3% in December, citing weak investment and rising geopolitical risks. Global growth is also revised down to 3.1% as trade disruptions weigh on sentiment.

Euronews

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The Guardian - US

Trump says the economy ‘went to hell’ under Biden. The opposite is true

By standard measures such as job and GDP growth and the stock market, the US economy was in excellent shape

Fortune

Here’s when AI will launch a decade-long cycle of economic growth and productivity gains

The bank predicts that productivity and GDP gains will start two years from now in 2027 and continue through most of the 2030s.

The Independent UK

Will the UK enter a recession after Britain’s GDP shrinks unexpectedly?

GDP unexpectedly fell in the first month of 2025

The Guardian - UK

Shrinking economy offers unhelpful backdrop for Rachel Reeves’s growth push

GDP goes in wrong direction as chancellor puts final touches to fiscal plans

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The Fashion Central

Sky News Interrupts for Breaking Update in Major Blow to Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer

Evening Standard

Chancellor ‘determined to turn around’ economy amid surprise fall in GDP

Figures revealed a surprise contraction in the economy in January, in a blow to Rachel Reeves ahead of her spring statement.

Evening Standard

City fears recession after shock 0.1% fall in GDP in January

Manufacturing and North Sea oil and gas production see big falls in output

Evening Standard

FTSE 100 Live 14 March: Gold price milestone, GDP setback as Berkeley urges rate cut clarity

Recession fears stalked the City today after official figures showed the UK economy went back into reverse in January.

Fortune

Goldman Sachs’ chief economist just downgraded the entire U.S. economy as Trump’s latest tariff salvo rattles markets

The storied investment bank has forecast GDP growth to come in below Wall Street’s consensus for the first time in 2½ years.

Fortune

China has only one real way to hit its 2025 growth target

The stimulus packages Beijing rolled out won’t do the trick—and they aren’t really stimulative.

Latin Times

Mexico's Biggest Bank Predicts Zero Growth, Recession—Trump's Tariff Threats Labeled as Major Risk

Banamex predicts that the Mexican economy will not grow this year if 25% tariffs on all Mexican products are imposed.

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