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Natural gas is the most volatile energy commodity trading on the CME’s NYMEX division. As the natural gas futures market enters the peak demand season, the bullish trend since March 2024 is likely to continue.

Natural gas is a seasonal commodity that tends to rally during the winter as the demand for heating increases. U.S. natural gas futures prices are already around the $4 per MMBtu level as the market heads into the year’s coldest months.

Nearby U.S. natural gas prices are flirting with the $2 per MMBtu level despite a record-hot summer, during which cooling demand has increased. Over the coming months, the market will shift to concerns over the peak heating season, when natural gas futures prices tend to reach highs.

Natural gas prices plunged in 2023, posting the most significant loss in the energy sector. The low price level presented an opportunity as the natural gas futures market moves into 2024. European prices will likely influence U.S. futures as the war in Ukraine continues to rage.

The U.S. natural gas futures market is now weeks away from the start of the 2023/2024 peak season, where inventories decline as the demand for heating increases. Natural gas prices have moved higher, breaking out to the upside above technical resistance levels during the first week of October.

Three years ago, NYMEX natural gas futures traded to the lowest price of this century when the energy commodity reached a two-and-one-half-decade low. In August 2020, the price exploded to a fourteen-year high. In June 2023, nearby natural gas is approaching the 2020 low as last year’s explosive rally imploded.

Natural gas prices are just above the $2 per MMBtu level, a far cry from the August 2022 high that took the volatile energy commodity over $10 per MMBtu for the first time since 2008. In the early days of the offseason for demand at the start of the 2023…

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