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The Latest Breaking News from John Curtice

A painful picture for the Tories: forecasting the general election from the local results

Nils Bohr, the Nobel prize winning physicist, once said: “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Electoral forecasting, the science of predicting politics, is a case in point. It’s difficult to do and easy to get wrong.

The Conversation

Labour majority on knife edge as Sunak comes under pressure

Polling expert John Curtice says results in group of key marginals would hand Keir Starmer a slim majority if replicated at election

The Independent UK

Tories demand Rishi Sunak ‘deliver’ on pledges after ‘wake-up call’ local election results

Tories ‘not far off rock bottom’ of John Major’s support in the 1990s after local election losses

The Independent UK

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The local picture is good for Keir Starmer – the national predictions look even better

Evidence of a tactical pincer movement to defeat the Tories shows how worried they should be about the general election, says former YouGov president Peter Kellner

The Guardian - UK

What do the Tories’ dismal local results mean for the general election? Our panel responds

The polls in England proved ‘disappointing’ for the Conservatives. Are gains by Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens enough to guarantee a Tory loss at the next election?

The Guardian - UK

Big blow for Tories and PM Rishi Sunak as Labour takes key councils in English local elections

Leading pollsters have predicted the Conservatives could lose around 1,000 seats as MPs admit the results are "terrible"

Wales Online

Friday briefing: 7am snapshot of local election results so far

In today’s newsletter: So far, what looks like a very bad night for the Tories is only quite a good one for Labour

The Guardian - UK

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Does Scotland support a monarchy or a republic? See the results in graphs

THE royal family and upcoming coronation have been dominating headlines in recent weeks, as King Charles’s special day grows nearer.

The National (Scotland)

Thursday briefing: How parties will fare at the local elections – and where they go from here

In today’s newsletter: Will the Tories tank? Will Labour really gain? Here’s a guide to make sense of the local elections, and what it means for the next general elections

The Guardian - UK

Rishi Sunak predicts a hard night for Conservatives in today's elections

“Good councillors will lose their seats because of all that has happened over the past year.”

Wales Online

Sunak predicts ‘hard night’ for Tories as he faces local elections test

The Prime Minister’s Conservatives are trailing heavily behind Labour going into Thursday’s polls.

The Independent UK

Gove and Hunt, beware: true-blue Surrey is ready to turf out the Tories – and you’re next

An avalanche is coming. The voters I met are abandoning the Conservatives over lying, cheating and Brexit, says Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee

The Guardian - UK

Local elections: Double digit vote share win could show Labour on path to No10

Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice pointed to both Tony Blair and David Cameron, who secured wins of more than 10% over their rival ruling party in local elections before they entered Downing Street

Daily Mirror

Double-digit vote share in local elections ‘could indicate Labour government’

Polling expert Sir John Curtice said Tony Blair and David Cameron both secured local council vote share wins of more than 10% before becoming PM.

The Independent UK

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The National (Scotland)

Support for royals at 'all time low' ahead of coronation, John Curtice says

SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said ...

The Independent UK

Tactical voting could see ‘terrible’ local election loss for Rishi Sunak, say polling experts

EXCLUSIVE: ‘Sophisticated’ electorate spells trouble for PM – with Tories forecast to lose more than 1,000 seats and Boris Johnson waiting in the wings

The Independent UK

Could a pact between Scottish Labour and Tories oust SNP?

Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross has suggested he wants to see an informal tactical voting pact. Adam Forrest takes a closer look whether it could work

The National (Scotland)

Yes support steady but SNP must hope voters remain loyal, says leading pollster

SUPPORT for independence remained largely unchanged after the election of the new SNP leader.

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The National (Scotland)

Scottish Tories 'will tell supporters to back Labour' to block out SNP

UNIONIST parties are hoping to capitalise on a drop in support for the SNP with a tactical voting pact bringing Tory and Labour supporters together,…

The Week

Humza Yousaf: can new SNP leader keep Starmer out in Scotland?

The newly elected leader of the Scottish National Party faces a huge challenge to reunite his party and see off the growing threat posed by Labour north of the border.

The Independent UK

Labour set to take only 10 SNP seats in Scotland, says polling guru John Curtice

Keir Starmer’s party eyeing 16 to 20 Westminster seats north of the border

Evening Standard

Labour eyes path to power through Scotland as Nicola Sturgeon formally resigns

Labour will have an opportunity to seize vital seats off the Scottish National Party at the next general election following Humza Yousaf’s appointment as Scotland’s First Minister, a top polling expert said on Tuesday.

Daily Record

Labour stands to make gains in Scotland following Humza Yousaf victory, says John Curtice

Professor John Curtice said there are "around 10 seats" which could fall to Labour at the next UK General Election.

The Guardian - UK

Tuesday briefing: What Humza Yousaf’s win means for Scotland, the SNP and independence

In today’s newsletter: The former health minister inherits a party, country and movement in flux from predecessor Nicola Sturgeon

The Independent UK

Scottish independence ‘dead’ after Humza Yousaf SNP win, claim Labour and Tories

Nicola Sturgeon’s successor to demand referendum ‘straight away’ and vows to lead Scotland back into EU

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