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The Latest Breaking News from CBO

'The conflict in Iran demonstrates why we need to keep our national debt at a reasonable level': think tank sees economic emergency around the corner

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warns that war spending could tip into a fiscal crisis — and it's calling for a pre-built escape plan.

Fortune

Trump's Iran war could hike national debt by $65 billion in 60 days, while tariffs add another crushing blow

The Pentagon told lawmakers that they estimated the cost of the war exceeded $11.3 billion in the first 6 days of the conflict—and that didn't even include all of the pre-strike costs.

Fortune

Trump’s Iran war is costing American taxpayers $1 billion a day as the national debt spirals out of control

Should the Iran war drag on for even several more weeks, the damage to America’s fragile finances will prove substantial.

Fortune

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The U.S. borrowed $50 billion a week for the past five months, finds the CBO: 'Our fiscal problems will not solve themselves'

"We need policymakers to come together, agree to reduce deficits ... and put our national debt on a downward sustainable path as a share of the economy."

Fortune

America gets a dire warning – Social Security trust fund for retirees could run out earlier than expected

A looming retirement crisis is on the horizon, and almost no one is talking about it.

We Got This Covered

CBO highlights the good news in Trump’s lost tariff revenue hiking the deficit by $2 trillion: Lower inflation and unemployment—and higher GDP

In the past year, tariffs were, at least partly, responsible for 166,000 lost blue-collar jobs and $1,700 in annual increased costs for American households.

Fortune

The Treasury may need to borrow extra $1.6 trillion to cover the hole left by tariff ruling, says CBO—adding $400 billion in debt interest by 2036

In total, deficits post-ruling will be $2 trillion larger than they were before the Supreme Court decision.

Fortune

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Democrats offer farm bill amendments to roll back SNAP changes

Democrats want to roll back controversial changes to the food stamp program enacted in the 2025 reconciliation law.

Roll Call

Interest on the $38.8 trillion national debt has tripled since 2020, and it already costs taxpayers more than defense and Medicaid

Here’s when Medicare falls below interest costs, according to CBO projections.

Fortune

Why Ray Dalio, Scott Bessent and others are rallying around a '3% solution' to the national debt

Bipartisan consensus is building in support of lowering the gulf between revenues and outlays to 3% of GDP.

Fortune

Come 2030, the U.S. deficit will be worth 5.9% of GDP—more than the outlays for Social Security, and equal to spending on major health programs

Come 2030, the annual deficit will be worth roughly 5.9% of GDP, on par with provisions set aside for health and Social Security programs, and well ahead of calls to reduce deficits to 3% of GDP.

Fortune

Trump vows, ‘We will always protect Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid,’ but his signature tax cuts shortened their life span

The president also said America is “bigger, better, richer, and stronger than ever before,” thanks to his One Big Beautiful Bill.

Fortune

‘The state of our union is more indebted than ever’: Budget watchdog continues war of words with Trump White House

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget took heat over the weekend, with Scott Bessent saying its leader “should be ashamed.”

Fortune

In less than a year, Trump erased 12 years of solvency for the trust fund that pays for Medicare Part A

The CBO estimates that benefit reductions would start at 8% in 2040 and steadily climb to a 10% cut by 2056.

Fortune

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Fortune

New Fed report shows Biden's immigration policies top Trump's on economic growth

A new research paper found that the huge influx of foreigners under President Biden's open border policy had the beneficial role of increasing the labor force, especially in areas where the U.S. sorely needed workers.

Fortune

New CBO report shows national debt spiraling into uncharted territory by 2035—and Trump's tariffs defeat will make the picture even worse

By 2035, the CBO expects the deficit to reach $2.96 trillion or 6.2% of GDP versus 5.8% today, and almost double the multi-decade, pre-pandemic average.

Saving Advice

Urgent Social Security Warning: New CBO Report Says Benefits Could Be Cut by 2032

If you rely on Social Security now—or plan to in the next decade—there’s a new warning you can’t afford to ignore. The Congressional Budget Office...

Roll Call

Court ruling puts federal revenue forecast on shaky ground

The rejection of Trump's strategy hits budget projections that assumed a hefty spike in tariff revenue to help reduce federal deficits.

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Fortune

The ‘alternative scenario’ of an even bigger national debt disaster is in play after the Supreme Court ruled Trump’s tariffs illegal

Federal debt was set to reach 120% of GDP by 2036, the CBO projected, but that assumed the tariffs would stay in place.

Reason

U.S. To Spend $24.4 Trillion More Than It Has Over the Next Decade, Report Warns

The cost of paying the interest is now the central story, and it's a grim one.

Fortune

$56 trillion national debt leading to a spiraling crisis: budget watchdog warns the U.S. is walking a crumbling path

Trump is putting the U.S. economy on a "sugar high" and leaving other people holding the bill when it comes due a decade from now, according to the CRFB.

Fortune

A U.S. 'debt spiral' could start soon as the interest rate on government borrowing is poised to exceed economic growth, budget watchdog says

CRFB warned the actual fiscal outlook could be far worse than even the latest sobering projections.

Fortune

Trump's immigration curbs will help take 2.4 million people out of the workforce, but he's betting AI can pick up the slack

Can AI make up lost productivity from crashing fertility rates and shrinking immigration flows? Trump will certainly hope so.

Reason

Interest on the National Debt Will Cost $16 Trillion Over the Next 10 Years

A new Congressional Budget Office outlook expects entitlement spending and the national debt to explode in the next decade.

Fortune

‘Nothing short of self-sabotage’: Watchdog warns about national debt setting new record in just 4 years

“Our nation’s deficits, debt, interest payments, and trust funds are all in terrible shape,” says Maya MacGuineas, president of the CRFB.

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