Gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) dipped on Wednesday due to delays in the US-Iran deal, which are causing geopolitical concerns and global economic uncertainty. Even though the US launched strikes at Iran, US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said on Tuesday that the potential deal to end the US-Israel conflict with Iran could take a few days. Meanwhile, Israel’s attacks on Lebanon are also intensifying tensions.
Amid this uncertainty, gold traded at Rs 1,56,229 on MCX in the morning session, down from Rs 1,57,264 a day ago.
Vedika Narvekar, research analyst, Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, says macro-economic factors, including elevated oil prices, which led to inflationary concerns and a shift in Fed rate expectations, have also been impacting gold prices.
Manav Modi, commodities analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., says focus now shifts to upcoming US GDP data even as China’s industrial profit data came in slightly stronger, indicating some resilience in manufacturing activity.
With global uncertainties, high crude oil prices and inflationary concerns impacting gold prices, what should you do with your gold investments- sell, hold or buy?
What should you do with your gold investments now?
Prithviraj Kothari, managing director at RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd., president of India Bullion and Jewellers Association Ltd. (IBJA), suggests investors should avoid panic selling. He advises long-term investors to hold their gold investments.
“Central bank buying is running at five times its pre-2022 pace, and ETF holdings remain below 2020 peaks, suggesting significant re-entry potential when rates ease. Tactical investors may consider accumulating on dips below $4,500, treating deal-related corrections as strategic entry points rather than exit signals,” Kothari suggests.
Narvekar says gold is likely to provide opportunities and one should buy it on dips.
“Because of prolonged disruptions and elevated oil prices, inflation data has been surprising on the upside and could continue to do so for at least another month or two which may pressure gold prices. Thus, it is advisable to accumulate gold in 2–3 tranches on every 3% dip,” says Narvekar.
Which forms of gold should investors buy?
Narvekar says the preferred forms of gold are financial gold rather than physical jewellery.
“In India, the best options are gold ETFs, which are suitable for investors seeking liquidity, transparency, and easy market access, and gold mutual funds, which are suitable for SIP investors who do not want a demat account. Digital gold can be used only for small convenience-based purchases, as it is less regulated,” says Narvekar.
Kothari too advises purchasing gold in a phased manner as systematic accumulation through staggered buying lowers average cost risk.
“The World Gold Council is projecting a 5–15% rise in 2026 from current levels. Avoid concentrating exposure near record highs,” Kothari suggests.
What should be the allocation to gold in your investment portfolio?
Kothari suggests maintaining gold allocation at10–15% of the overall portfolio as a hedge against inflation, currency depreciation, and geopolitical black-swan events in 2026.
According to Narvekar, maintaining a 10–12% allocation in gold in a portfolio is generally considered prudent, depending on risk appetite and investment horizon.
Gold price outlook for 2026
Narvekar says gold prices have corrected significantly from their highs, but are still up 5% year-to-date.
“We expect international spot gold prices to trade in the range of $4,000–$5,600/oz this year. Based on the international benchmark and the rupee factor, the likely range for MCX Gold is Rs 1,44,000–Rs 1,90,000 per 10 grams,” says Narvekar.
Colin Shah, MD, Kama Jewelry, says in FY26-27, the gold price is expected to rally to Rs1,80,000 per 10 gram.
However, Shah says the demand for jewellery is likely to remain subdued due to economic uncertainty.
Kothari remains optimistic, forecasting gold in the $5,00–$6,000 range by year-end, driven by geopolitical factors and continued central bank reserve accumulation.
“An unconfirmed US-Iran deal could compress gold near $4,300–$4,500 briefly before structural tailwinds — central bank buying, dollar weakness, ETF re-entry — drive a recovery toward $5,000–$5,400 by December 2026,” predicts Kothari.
