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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Julia Kollewe

UK economic growth confirmed at 0.7% in first quarter; Lincolnshire oil refinery calls in administrators –as it happened

Rickshaws Touting for Business on Westminster Bridge London.
Rickshaws Touting for Business on Westminster Bridge London. Photograph: London/Alamy

Closing summary

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq opened at fresh record highs, amid a wave of optimism over the United States striking trade deals.

Canada scrapped its digital services tax targeting US tech firms, hours before it was due to take effect, in an attempt to kickstart stalled trade negotiations with Donald Trump’s administration.

The UK-US trade deal has come into effect today, which means lower tariffs for UK carmakers (10%) and the aerospace sector (0%).

A trade delegation from the European Commisison is heading to Washington DC today to resume talks on a tariff deal. European trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič will travel to Washington tomorrow night and hinted the EU and the US are close to a deal.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 index in London dropped by 25 points, or 0.3%, to 8,773.

Germany’s Dax is down 0.6% while France’s CAC slipped by 0.3%.

UK households faced a renewed cost of living squeeze in the first three months of 2025 amid increases in taxes and inflation, official figures show, despite the economy growing at the fastest rate in the G7.

The Office for National Statistics said an important measure of living standards – real household disposable income per head – fell by 1% in the first quarter after growth of 1.8% in the final three months of 2024, in the first quarterly decline for almost two years.

The households’ saving ratio – which estimates the percentage of disposable income Britons save rather than spend – slumped by 1.1 percentage points to 10.9%, although this remains historically high.

The signs of a fresh hit to living standards come despite the latest snapshot confirming that the UK economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter, the fastest rate in the G7 group of rich nations.

The UK government has called for an investigation into the conduct of bosses at one of the UK’s largest oil refineries after it collapsed into administration on Monday, prompting concern about job losses and disruption to fuel supplies.

Sources familiar with the situation said that government officials had been growing increasingly fearful about the finances of State Oil, which owns the Prax Lindsey refinery in north Lincolnshire, since April.

The heavily lossmaking company assured ministers it was in good health during a meeting at the Prax site in May but is understood to have suddenly admitted in the past week that it was on the verge of insolvency.

The company, the only British business to own one of the UK’s five key refineries, is understood to have failed to comply with multiple requests from Westminster to open its books as it plunged towards failure.

The government said workers had been “badly let down”.

The energy secretary, Ed Miliband, is now understood to be considering whether the wider oil refinery sector – which is struggling with low profit margins – should be allowed to tap a financial support scheme announced in last week’s industrial strategy and originally targeted at energy intensive sectors such as steel.

Thank you for reading. We’ll be back tomorrow. Take care! – JK

Updated

European trade commissioner hints EU and US close to deal

European trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič will travel to Washington tomorrow night hinting the EU and the US are close to a deal.

He revealed it was a good time get down to drafting an agreement.

A delegation has gone ahead of him for technical talk after the latest proposals were sent to Brussels by the Trump administration last Thursday.

The clock is ticking down to Trump’s self-imposed deadline for a deal of 9 July with a threat of 50% tariffs on all imports if nothing is struck. Šefčovič said at a briefing in Brussels:

The 9th of July is around the corner. So for me, it’s always a good sign when we kind of move from, I would say, exchange of views, into the drafting process.”

I have to say that, of course, you have to be very much focused on the results, because we are two biggest trading partners on this planet”

As you know, we received first drafts of proposals for the for the eventual agreement in principle we are working on that.

Nissan to cut jobs at Sunderland factory

Nissan Motor plans to cut jobs at its Sunderland factory, as part of a 15% reduction in its global workforce announced by chief executive Ivan Espinosa in May.

The Japanese carmaker said it wants to increase the efficiency of the Sunderland plant in northeastern England, where it employs 6,000 people, to make it a “leaner, more flexible” operation.

It did not say how many job cuts it is targeting. Japan’s Kyodo News, which earlier reported the planned cuts, said Nissan intends to lay off 250 workers.

Nissan said in a statement:

We will begin discussions with some of our employees at the Sunderland plant this week about voluntary retirement opportunities and support from the company.

As it slims down production, Nissan said in May it would make a further 11,000 job cuts, after 9,000 job losses announced in November, and close seven factories worldwide, although Sunderland is not expected to be among them.

The factory is seen as critical to Nissan‘s European operations and it plans to make the new version of its Leaf EV there.

Separately, Reuters reported today that Nissan has asked some suppliers in Britain and the European Union to delay payments to free up short-term funds, as it scrambles to boost cash.

Meanwhile, Sky is reporting that Ed Miliband, the energy security secretary is considering bringing oil refineries within a key state support scheme.

EU trade delegation heads to Washington for talks on tariff deal

While the trade deal between the UK and the US, announced on 8 May, kicks in today, a trade delegation from the European Commisison will land in Washington DC later today to resume talks on a tariff deal.

With nine days to go before Donald Trump’s self imposed deadline, the question being asked across capitals and the US is whether the EU will follow the UK and settle on a thin deal dealing with the main sectors including cars and steel along with semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, sectors on which the US president is still threatening import duties.

Speculation is mounting as to what the EU would be prepared to compromise on to get a reduced or zero tariff across the line.

Could the EU follow Canada and abandon threatened taxes on digital services?

The government announced late Sunday that it would scrap its digital services tax on US technology companies in order to get trade talks re-opened.

A spokesman for the European Commission said on Monday that neither the Digital Services Act or the Digital Markets Act were on the table. But there was no mention of tax in a daily press conference in Brussels.

UK energy minister: 'longstanding issues' with Prax, workers 'badly let down'

The UK energy minister, Michael Shanks, said there have been “longstanding issues” with this company, and “workers have been badly let down”. He demanded an immediate investigation into the conduct of the directors.

There have been longstanding issues with this company and workers have been badly let down.

The Secretary of State is today writing to the Insolvency Service to demand an immediate investigation into the conduct of the directors, and the circumstances surrounding this insolvency.

The government will ensure supplies are maintained, protect our energy security, and do everything we can to support workers and the local community, including engaging with trade unions and industry bodies.

The company has left the government with very little time to act. The government is supporting the Official Receiver to carry out their statutory duties, including managing the situation on the site to determine next steps. This will include urgently reporting back on all potential uses of the site, prior to a wind-down of the refinery.

The government believes that the business’s leadership have a responsibility to the workers and the local community. We call on them to do the right thing and support the workers through this difficult period.

As a reminder, Prax Lindsey Oil Refinery filed for insolvency on Sunday, and an official receiver has been appointed. The Official Receiver is an officer of the court who acts independently of the government, responsible for managing the winding up in the best interest of creditors. This includes protecting and collecting assets for creditors; finding out the reasons for the insolvency; and dealing with creditors’ claims.

Prax Group, led by chairman and chief executive Sanjeev Kumar Soosaipillai, purchased the Lindsey Oil Refinery from Total in 2021. Lindsey is the smallest refinery in the UK. It is located next to the Phillips66 Humber refinery, which is the dominant fuel supplier in Humberside and continues to operate at profit.

Financial reports indicate that Lindsey Oil Refinery recorded losses of around £75m between Prax acquiring it in 2021 and February 2024.

The company was unable to adequately answer repeated requests from the energy secretary to share information about its financial gap, and therefore unable to provide the government with the information needed to assess Lindsey’s financial viability.

My colleague Rob Davies has more details:

One of the UK’s largest oil refineries – and the only big one owned by a British company – has collapsed into administration, prompting calls for the government to intervene urgently to protect fuel supplies and jobs.

State Oil, which owns the Prax Lindsey refinery in north Lincolnshire, called in administrators on Monday, Sky News reported first, prompting concern from the trade union, Unite.

The failure is likely to cause a headache for government officials, given that the company’s 5.4m tonne-a-year capacity represents nearly a tenth of the national total. About 180 people work at State Oil, and 440 more are employed at the Prax Lindsey refinery, according to Sky.

State Oil is part of the Prax Group, which is majority owned by the seldom-seen husband and wife team Winston and Arani Soosaipillai, who bought the company from the French oil group Total in 2021. A further 20% is held by family trusts connected to them.

Prax Lindsey is the only one of the UK’s five leading oil refineries to have a UK owner; the remainder have US and Indian parent companies.

The group also has oilfield investments in Shetland and owns roughly 200 petrol stations in the UK under the Breeze and Harvest Energy brands, but these are outside the insolvency process.

Ewan Gibbs, historian of energy, said on X:

It is one of only six major oil refineries in the UK.

Prax owns the Lancaster oilfield in the British North Sea, a geologically complex project that has been stuck in an early production phase for years. it also runs more than 200 fuel service stations across the country.

Updated

Official Receiver appointed as liquidator to Lindsey oil refinery

The Insolvency Service has reported that the Official Receiver, Gareth Jonathan Allen, has been appointed as the liquidator of the Lindsey oil refinery.

They say:

On 30 June 2025, a winding-up order was made against Prax Lindsey Oil Refinery Limited, Prax Storage Lindsey Limited, and Prax Terminals Killingholme Limited. The court appointed the Official Receiver, Gareth Jonathan Allen, as Liquidator.

The Official Receiver will wind-up the companies in accordance with his statutory duties, and will investigate the cause of the companies’ failure and the conduct of current and former directors, they add.

Creditors who are owed money by Prax, or who have paid for goods and services, can register as a creditor in the liquidation.

Lindsey oil refinery owner calls in administrators; government urged to act

Newsflash: The British high court has appointed Teneo as the administrator of the owners of the Lindsey oil refinery in Lincolnshire, Reuters reports.

State Oil Limited and Prax Treasury Limited own the Lindsey refinery, which is located on a 500-acre site five miles from the Humber Estuary.

Joint administrator Clare Boardman says:

“We will be considering all options for the Group, including the prospect of a sale for the Group’s upstream business and retail operations in the UK and Europe, all of which remain outside of insolvency.”

Sky News is reporting that that State Oil was forced to call in administrators amid mounting losses at the refinery.

Unite general secretary Sharon Graham is urging ministers to take action to save jobs:

“The Lindsey oil refinery is strategically important, and the government must intervene immediately to protect workers and fuel supplies.

“Unite has constantly warned the government that its policies have placed the oil and industry on a cliff edge. It has failed to act and instead put its fingers in its ears.

“The government needs a short-term strategy to keep Lindsey operating and a sustainable long-term plan to fully protect all oil and gas workers.”

Updated

UK households hit by squeeze on living standards despite fastest growth in G7

Here’s our full story on the UK GDP data:

UK households faced a renewed cost of living squeeze in the first three months of 2025 amid increases in taxes and inflation, official figures show, despite the economy growing at the fastest rate in the G7.

The Office for National Statistics said an important measure of living standards – real household disposable income per head – fell by 1% in the first quarter after growth of 1.8% in the final three months of 2024, in the first quarterly decline for almost two years.

The households’ saving ratio – which estimates the percentage of disposable income Britons save rather than spend – slumped by 1.1 percentage points to 10.9%, although this remains historically high.

The signs of a fresh hit to living standards come despite the latest snapshot confirming that the UK economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter, the fastest rate in the G7 group of rich nations.

Liz McKeown, the ONS director of economic statistics, said:

The saving ratio fell for the first time in two years this quarter, as rising costs for items such as fuel, rent and restaurant meals contributed to higher spending, although it remains relatively strong.

Ministers had welcomed the initial first-quarter growth estimate as evidence that Labour’s economic policies were starting to bear fruit after a rocky first few months in office. However, the more detailed snapshot highlights the squeeze on living standards, which risks undermining Keir Starmer’s promise for households to feel the benefits.

Simon Gammon, managing partner at Knight Frank Finance, said that while mortgage approvals ticked up, they are “broadly consistent with a property market treading water”. He explained:

Mortgage rates have largely plateaued, with leading fixed deals just below 4%. Lenders are adjusting pricing at the margins – some cuts, the occasional rise – but it’s more about managing business volumes than responding to any major shift in outlook.

Remortgaging jumped and will continue to rise as the year progresses – 1.8 million fixed rate mortgages are due to mature during 2025. This will be painful for those moving off five-year fixed rate products agreed in 2020, when mortgage rates were still ultra-low.

The housing market remains driven by first-time buyers and families who really need to move, rather than discretionary buyers in higher price brackets. Downsizers are active too, though many are struggling to offload larger homes in favour of smaller ones, where activity is stronger.

The outlook for mortgage rates is benign, and recent labour market data points to a weakening economy that could unlock further base rate cuts – perhaps to 3.75% by the year end. Still, with leading fixed rates unlikely to dip below 3.7% before 2026, current sluggish conditions look set to persist.

Karim Haji, global and UK head of financial services at KPMG, said:

May’s uptick in mortgage approvals bucks the downward trend we’ve seen throughout the year so far. The gradual easing of interest rates could be helping to boost confidence and demand amongst mortgage borrowers.

The cost of living remains high, but a drop in consumer borrowing in May signals that rising incomes are starting to feed through to the cost of day-to-day expenses.

Borrowers may also be awaiting further movement on the Bank of England’s base rate before deciding to take out more credit although falling mortgage rates may help increase confidence and appetite.

Default rates remain high, despite the interest rate cut last month, and it is critical that lenders remain ready to support customers that are struggling to pay their bills.

With the economic outlook remaining uncertain, lenders will need to be alive to the financial struggles of their customers and be ready to step in to support them both now and in the months ahead.

UK mortgage approvals rebound in May while credit card borrowing falls

Mortgage approvals for house purchases in the UK bounced back last month, while consumer credit fell as people borrowed less on credit cards.

Mortgage approvals for house purchases rose by 2,400 to 63,000 in May, marking the end of four months of decline, according to the Bank of England. Approvals for remortgaging also increased, by 6,200 to 41,500, which is the largest increase since February 2024 when it was 6,600.

The latest figures from the Bank of England also showed that net mortgage borrowing increased by £2.8 bn to £2.1bn in May, following a large decrease in net borrowing of £13.8bn in April.

Consumer credit more than halved to £900m in May from £1.9bn in April. Within this, net borrowing through credit cards slumped to £100m in May, from £1.2bn in April. Net borrowing through other forms of consumer credit fell slightly to £700m, from £800m.

Nathan Emerson, chief executive of Propertymark, a professional body for estate agents with 18,000 members, said:

It is incredibly positive news to see an increased number of mortgage applications approved. It is one of the loudest signals of them all regarding consumer affordability, and it is also a massive vote of confidence from lenders in the longer-term prospects of the economy too.

As we head into the summer months, we have witnessed on average the number of viewings per property available see an uplift of around 30% compared to the month previous. On top of this, we have also seen the UK Government make a pledge to create a National Housing Bank which could bring significant investment to help build 500,000 new homes, enabling a potential greater degree of flexibility for those who aspire to buy.

Updated

Britons could soon install balcony solar panels in flats and rental homes

As we are gearing up for another sunny and hot June day:

Those living in flats or rented homes in the UK could soon plug in their own “balcony solar panels” to save on their energy bills under plans set out in the government’s solar power strategy.

The proposals could mean that British households that are unable to install rooftop solar panels will soon join millions of people across Europe who generate their own electricity with “plug-in” panels.

These panels, found on balconies across Spain and Germany, can be plugged directly into a home’s power socket to generate solar electricity for the household.

The DIY panels are already fitted to about 1.5m balconies in Germany, where they are known as Balkonkraftwerk (balcony power plant). They typically save households about 30% on their energy bills and cost between €400-800, with no installation fees required, meaning they pay for themselves within six years.

Lifetime Isas ‘could lead to savers making poor investment choices’, MPs say

Lifetime Isas could lead to savers making poor investment decisions and may not be the best use of public money, a cross-party committee of MPs has said.

In a report published on Monday, the Treasury select committee described rules which penalise benefit claimants as “nonsensical” and concluded that lifetime Isas, known as Lisas, may have been mis-sold to savers eligible for universal credit or housing benefit.

Lisas, launched by the then Conservative chancellor, George Osborne, in 2017, allow people to save towards their first home or for their retirement. Deposits are topped up by the government, up to a maximum £1,000 a year.

However, the Treasury committee said that the dual-purpose design of the Lisa may be steering people away from more suitable savings products.

Cash Lisas could suit those saving for a first home but may not achieve the best outcome for those using them as a retirement savings product, as they are unable to invest in higher-risk but potentially higher-return products such as bonds and equities, the report said.

Raising another issue, the committee said that any savings held in a Lisa can affect eligibility for universal credit or housing benefit under the current system, even though this does not apply to other personal or workplace pension schemes.

The committee said if this was not changed, the accounts should “include warnings that the lifetime Isa is an inferior product for anyone who might one day be in receipt of universal credit”.

Number of new UK entry-level jobs has dived since ChatGPT launch

The number of new entry-level UK jobs has dropped by almost a third since the launch of ChatGPT, new figures suggest, as companies use AI to cut back the size of their workforces.

Vacancies for graduate jobs, apprenticeships, internships and junior jobs with no degree requirement have dropped 32% since the launch of the AI chatbot in November 2022, according to research by the job search site Adzuna. These entry-level jobs now account for 25% of the market in the UK, down from 28.9% in 2022.

It comes as businesses increasingly use AI as a route to improve efficiency and reduce staff numbers. This month the chief executive of BT, Allison Kirkby, said advances in AI could presage deeper job cuts at the telecoms company, after it outlined plans two years ago to shed between 40,000 and 55,000 workers.

Meanwhile, Dario Amodei, the boss of the $61bn (£44.5bn) AI developer Anthropic, has warned the technology could wipe out half of all entry-level office jobs in the next five years, and push up unemployment by between 10% and 20%.

WH Smith sells high street chain for less than expected

In other news, WH Smith is selling its high street business for £12m less than expected amid ‘softer trading’.

WH Smith has officially sold its high street business, but will receive £12m less than initially expected, as it struggles against a period of “softer trading”, the company said.

In March, the books and stationery retailer agreed to sell its 480 high street stores to Modella Capital, the investment firm which also owns Hobbycraft. As part of the deal, the high street business, which employs about 5,000 people, will be rebranded as TGJones. WH Smith is retaining its brand for its travel shops in railway stations, airports and hospitals.

The deal was initially expected to generate cash of £50m for WH Smith, but it now expects proceeds of £40m, thanks to a period of softer trading and the change of ownership leading to a “more cautious outlook amongst stakeholders”, the company said.

It comes amid rising concern around the health of British retail. The latest official data showed retail sales volumes dropped at their fastest rate since December 2023 in May, down 2.7% month-on-month and 1.3% lower than a year ago. That decline was driven by a drop in sales volumes at food retailers, the Office for National Statistics said.

Matt Swannell, chief economic advisor to the EY Item Club forecasting group, said while the GDP figures confirm a strong start to 2025, “this pace of growth appears temporary”.

There appear to be problems with residual seasonality in the data which is making the early part of the year look artificially strong. Q1 was also boosted by a strong increase in aircraft investment, which is likely to unwind, and some business appears to have been brought forward to beat changes in US trade policy. The early signs are that the UK looks set for much softer growth in the second quarter of 2025, with output already having fallen in April.

A feature of the last year was that households preferred to save rather than spend a lot of their real income gains. A saving ratio of 10.9% in Q1 was far higher than usual, although it was a fall of 1.1ppt from Q4. With earnings growth slowing and inflation set to rise, growth in real income looks set to slow across the rest of this year, but with scope for households to save a little less, there is space for consumption to be cushioned from this slowdown.

After the strong start to 2025, the UK looks set for another year of weak growth, with headwinds continuing to intensify. On top of weakening real income growth, fiscal policy has been tightened, while some households will still feel the lagged effects of past interest rate rises. Global trade market volatility and the accompanying elevated levels of uncertainty have added to the headwinds.

People have less income in the UK – real household disposable income per head is estimated to have fallen in the latest quarter by 1.0%, compared with a revised 1.8% increase in the previous quarter.

Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, warns that there is little underlying momentum in the economy, as more recent data suggests.

GDP growth was unrevised at 0.7% q/q in Q1, but we already know this strength has started to unwind. The underlying picture is still that there is very little momentum in the economy.

Growth was a bit less dependent on a likely one-off surge in business investment in Q1 than previously estimated. That was revised down, from 5.9% q/q to 3.9% q/q. What’s more, consumer spending growth was revised up a notch, from 0.2% q/q to 0.4% q/q.

And the news that the household saving rate fell from 12.0% in Q4 to 10.9% in Q1 provides some encouraging signs that consumer spending growth will edge higher in the quarters ahead.

That said, these minor tweaks to the shape of growth don’t change the big picture. Business investment and net trade remained the main drivers of growth. And given activity has been brought forward ahead of US tariffs and the leap in business investment reflects a one-off leap in spending on aircraft, these sources of growth won’t be sustained. Indeed, we already know that exports to the US fell by 31% m/m in April after they had risen by 34% in total in the five months to February.

Of course, all this backward-looking news is less important than the timely data which suggest GDP has done little more than flatline in Q2. The latest GDP figures do not change our view that the economy will grow by just 1.0% this year, which would be no better than last year and a little weaker than the consensus forecast.

Updated

Introduction: UK economic growth confirmed at 0.7% in first quarter as household saving ratio falls

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

The UK economy grew by 0.7% between January and March, but households saved less amid the cost of living crisis, according to the latest official figures.

The GDP growth figure was unchanged from the Office for National Statistics’ previous estimate.

The service industries grew by 0.7% in the first quarter while production expanded by 1.3% and the construction sector eked out 0.3% growth.

The household saving ratio, a measure of how much people save, fell for the first time in two years, to 10.9% from 12%, as they spent more on fuel, rent and restaurant meals.

ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said:

While overall quarterly growth was unrevised, our updated set of figures show the economy still grew strongly in February, with growth now coming in a little higher in March too.

There was broad based growth across services, while manufacturing also had a strong quarter.

The saving ratio fell for the first time in two years this quarter, as rising costs for items such as fuel, rent and restaurant meals contributed to higher spending, although it remains relatively strong.

The ONS said that while the quarterly figure was unrevised, monthly growth was slightly higher than first thought in March, at 0.4% versus its initial estimate of 0.2%. January saw zero growth and February posted expansion of 0.5%, both unrevised.

In April, GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.3%, largely because of a drop in services output.

The UK-US trade deal has come into effect today, which means lower tariffs for UK carmakers (10%) and the aerospace sector (0%).

The Agenda

  • 9.30am BST: Bank of Engalnd consumer credit and mortgage approvals for May

  • 10am BST: Italy inflation for June (preliminary)

  • 1pm BST Germany inflation for June (preliminary)

  • 8pm BST: ECB president Christine Lagarde speech

Updated

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