The top two teams from the Western Conference in the MLS regular season are set to go head-to-head for a spot in MLS Cup when Vancouver Whitecaps FC visit San Diego FC on Saturday.
San Diego FC advanced to the Western Conference final on Monday night with a 1–0 win over Minnesota United. Two days prior, Vancouver clinched their spot in a dramatic penalty shootout win against LAFC.
It’s the first time for both sides in the Conference final, with San Diego becoming the second-ever expansion team to make it this far in the playoffs (Chicago Fire won MLS Cup in 1998 in their debut season), and the Whitecaps outperforming every season since their 2011 MLS debut.
Sports Illustrated takes a look at five key battles
Thomas Müller vs. Anders Dreyer: The Gamebreakers
Both teams are defined by their gamebreakers, in both German legend Thomas Müller and MLS Newcomer of the Year Anders Dreyer. While they won’t battle on the pitch–Müller will play centrally to Dreyer’s wide role–their leadership and ability to change the game are similar.
Dreyer has enjoyed an exceptional season, scoring 23 goals and 21 assists in 38 games in MLS play and he’s coming off notching the deciding goal against Minnesota. Meanwhile, Müller has eight goals and three assists in his 10 MLS games since arriving in August, but was far from the deciding factor against LAFC and did not play extra time.
In this match, Dreyer has the advantage. Given Vancouver’s injuries, they could be fragile out wide, while San Diego’s midfield of Jeppe Tverskov and Aníbal Godoy could handle Müller.
But here's the thing: These are special players–they can decide games even if they are shut down for 89 minutes.
Edge: San Diego FC (Anders Dreyer)
Sebastian Berhalter and Cubas vs. San Diego’s Attack
As much as Dreyer could punish Vancouver out wide, the Whitecaps should control the middle of the pitch. Playing in a 4-2-3-1, the holding midfield pairing of U.S. men’s national team World Cup hopeful Sebastian Berhalter and Paraguay’s Andrés Cubas have controlled central midfield and can spark attacks too.
In the semifinal against LAFC, which featured Son Heung-min and Denis Bouanga, the two Whitecaps midfielders combined for 31 defensive actions, nine tackles, and 18 recoveries, while holding down the defensive shape as Vancouver dropped to 10 and then to nine men. At the same time, they combined for 20 passes into the final third and Berhalter created four chances.
Riding some of their best form and with Müller playing in front of them, they should be able to overwhelm the middle of the park, with only Tverskov vying for the key lynchpin status on San Diego.
Edge: Vancouver Whitecaps FC
The Whitecaps’ Absences in Defense
Vancouver will miss several key pieces. Starting center back Tristan Blackmon, who returned from a lengthy injury against LAFC, will be unavailable due to a red card vs. LAFC. At the same time, depth center back option Belal Halbouni is unavailable after reportedly tearing his ACL.
That likely means Vancouver’s backline will consist of standout MLS Superdraft pick Tate Johnson at left back, a center back pairing of PK-hero Mathias Laborda and Ralph Priso-Mbongue, who is traditionally a midfielder, as well as Edier Ocampo at right back.
It’s not the worst situation, but it is far from Vancouver’s key backline that led them through their Concacaf Champions Cup run earlier in the year.
Given the absences in defense, as well as midfielder Ryan Gauld and striker Brian White still easing back into full minutes, San Diego will have a significant advantage in attack.
Edge: San Diego FC
San Diego's Regular Season vs. Vancouver's
San Diego will be happy to face Vancouver again, a team they handled in the regular season. Yet, things are much different now than when San Diego won 5–3 in June at BC Place and played to a 1–1 draw at Snapdragon Stadium in July.
Milan Iloski was key to the 5–3 win with a four-goal performance, but he left San Diego for Philadelphia Union (and was eliminated from the MLS Cup playoffs in the Eastern Conference semifinal by NYCFC). Meanwhile, Vancouver didn't the services of Müller or Gauld in the draw in California.
Mikey Varas’s men will carry confidence seeing Vancouver again, but in a one-game playoff showdown, the earlier results are unlikely to indicate anything.
Edge: Tie
Lozano's History vs. Müller
Lozano has only played 77 minutes in the playoffs, but will be enticed by facing Müller again. The two have never battled at club level, but have played twice while representing Mexico and Germany.
One of the best moments of Lozano's career came in their first matchup, when he scored the lone goal in Mexico's 1–0 win over Germany in the group stage of the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia. He'll hope for something similar in a single-knockout game seven years later.
San Diego vs. Vancouver Whitecaps: Who will win?
This will be a toss-up. Isn’t it wonderful that the best two teams in the regular season made their way to the Western Conference final? That said, Vancouver has a bit of history on their side, as only three times in the last 20 years has the Western Conference regular-season leader advanced to MLS Cup.
It’ll be tight, it’ll be fun, but Vancouver wins to meet either Inter Miami or New York City FC for MLS Cup on Dec. 6.
Score Prediction: San Diego FC 2–3 Vancouver Whitecaps (after extra time)
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as San Diego FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps: Five Key Battles That Could Decide MLS Western Conference Final.
