The Latest Breaking News from Spy

The bear market rally has extended further with a strong showing, following the Fed meeting and even more gains in the after-hours sessions due to strong reports from Apple and Amazon. Fortunately, we had been anticipating this and modestly increased our exposure and enjoyed some outperformance. In today's commentary, I…

The S&P 500 (SPY) has managed to pull off a fantastic bear market rally and now, we are off the mid-June lows by nearly 10%. In last week's commentary, we noted the bullish reactions to negative news like the CPI report which did get our spidey senses tingling. We also…

The S&P 500 (SPY) declined more following the June CPI report which showed that inflation was worse than expected at 9.1% vs 8.8%. As a result, the odds of a 100 basis point hike at the July meeting and a 75 basis point hike at the September meeting increased. Ironically,…

2022 has not been fun as the S&P 500 (SPY) has spent the better part of the last month in bear market territory. For as painful as that is there is good reason to believe that the worst is still to come. Why is that? How much lower can stocks…

Sometime last year, I presented a theory that this is probably the most unusual time in economic and financial history due to the pandemic, shutdowns, stimulus, war, etc. It's made a mockery of many forecasters who were late in recognizing the inflation threat, underestimated the economy's resilience in 2020 and…

Determining bear market bottom is much easier in hindsight than doing it in real time. That's because the stock market (SPY) offers up many impressive bounces that give the illusion of the worst being over...just before you drop to even lower lows. So price action is a tricky way to…

For as brutal as the market has been so far in 2022...it is likely about to get much worse. Why? Because Q2 earnings season is about to roll out and early indications point to a worsening of results that will likely heighten the stock market (SPY) sell off. This is…

More and more it looks like recession is here. This includes a dramatic decline for ISM Manufacturing discovered this morning. As you likely know, most economist call manufacturing the "canary in the coal mine" for the US economy as it often shows weakness before other areas. In fact, GDP Now…

In a not very surprising turn of events, the bear market bounce has failed as we've given up more than half of its gains. I, think it validates our decision to sit on our hands. Another validation is weakness in energy and cyclicals - a dip that I am not…