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The Latest Breaking News from MRCI

Tariff Talks, Weak Currency, and a Seasonal Sell Could Pressure the Canadian Dollar

President Trump announced possible tariffs on two countries with currencies trading at multi-year lows. With a weak currency and potential tariffs, the Canadian dollar seasonal sell pattern may have a fundamental catalyst needed for traders to profit.

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Will the S&P 500 Put Cash in Your Christmas Stocking or a Lump of Coal?

After the S&P 500 battled volatility from the Bank of Japan's surprise interest rate hike in August, the market found new buying and has since rallied to multiple new highs. It has kept intact four consecutive higher quarterly closes. Will this quarter make it five?

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Which Way Are Crude Oil Prices Going for the Remainder of 2024?

Crude oil prices have ground lower in a highly volatile way since peaking in April 2024. Contributing to this volatility are the upcoming election, the Israel/Iran conflict, and Opec + flip-flopping from increasing production to not. The recent rally of the US dollar has not helped oil prices find much…

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Buy This Dividend Yielding and 130% 5-year Return Stock After the Corn Harvest in October

Equity traders often overlook seasonality (market cycles). Commodity traders are well aware of the significance that seasonal patterns play. Here is an opportunity for equity traders to capitalize on a seasonal pattern in the corn market that has helped to create an astonishing 130% 5-year return for this company. As…

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Feel Like You Missed the Recent Gold Rush? No Worries, Another Opportunity is Waiting

When investing in gold, investors frequently ask, "Is now the right time to buy?" Hindsight makes it easier to pinpoint when gold's value surged the most but does not allow making profits after the fact. Considering gold's typically inverse relationship with stocks, interest rates, and the US Dollar, following price…

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Corn Prices Stumble: Is the Rally Over or Just Getting Started?

Corn prices are correcting the uptrend from the $3.85 level after reaching $4.34 for the December futures contract. The recent United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop production and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimate (WASDE) report weigh heavily on the market. Producers have been waiting for a price rally to…

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Tired of Being Beaten Up by the Equity Markets? Try This Strategy

Investing in the stock market can seem complicated, but one of the simplest and most effective strategies is to buy an ETF that tracks the S&P 500. ETFs like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF allow investors to own shares in 500 of the largest U.S. companies with just one trading…

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Corn Producer Relief Rally Underway – Will Stored Old Crop Corn Finally Be Priced?

Managed money began liquidating their record short positions in mid-July. Prices declined until late August when a potential seasonal low was $3.85. Producers of unpriced stored carry-over corn have patiently waited for this speculative short-covering rally to sell into. Could producers get a more substantial rally than expected and hedge…

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Does Your Portfolio Have Room for a 79% 5-Year Track Record ETF?

Equity investors often overlook market seasonality. Unfortunately, seasonality is usually tied to future markets. However, there are instances where the seasonality of commodities can enhance an Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). Two significant commodities are entering a seasonal buy that will impact an outperforming homebuilder ETF. The Federal Reserve (FED) appears ready…

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Holding Corn? Ready to Sell at Higher Prices?

A corn trader should look to buy when prices approach levels near the cost of production, as further downside risk may be limited. With corn futures already down about 18% year-to-date due to increased supply expectations, traders should consider that prices at or below production costs tend to create upward…

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Cheaper Gasoline Prices And Higher Crude Oil Prices: But Why?

Gasoline prices typically fall in the autumn and early winter as demand decreases and gasoline retailers switch to cheaper winter-blend fuels. Additionally, Americans take fewer trips during this period, further reducing demand. OPEC is expected to increase production in December, which could contribute to further price declines. These combined factors…

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Could the US Government Fiscal Year-End Fund Your Trading Account?

The US government's fiscal year significantly impacts financial markets because the federal budget process influences economic policy, government spending, and fiscal stability. As the fiscal year draws to a close on September 30, market participants closely monitor budget negotiations, potential government shutdowns, and funding decisions, which can create uncertainty and…

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Could the US Government's Fiscal Year End Fund Your Trading Account?

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Yen Carry Trade is Yesterday's News, Seasonal Play is Next Opportunity

Recent concerns about the unwinding of yen carry trades and its potential impact on financial markets have proven less disruptive than anticipated. Despite other countries raising interest rates to combat post-pandemic inflation, Japan has kept borrowing costs low to address its long-term economic stagnation. Although the Bank of Japan (BoJ)…

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Good Inflation Numbers and Hints of Lower Interest Rates Support the Stock Market's Seasonal Rally

Recently released inflation numbers were tamer than expected, leading market participants to anticipate the Fed will cut rates at their next meeting. The stock market's seasonal buy will use this bullish information as wind to its back. The recent selloff in the stock market created an opportunity for bullish investors.…

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Tumbling Corn Prices Have More Room to the Downside

Corn market participants have seen a steep fall after prices peaked in the Spring of 2022. Last year's planting season rally saw prices peak at $6.30 based on the new crop December 2023 futures. Many farmers/producers held onto their crops, anticipating higher prices. However, record production in the US and…

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CPI Report Indicating Lower Inflation: What to Buy and What to Sell?

After the recent CPI numbers were released, investor sentiment indicated an 85% likelihood of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September meeting, up from approximately 70% the prior trading session. This expectation shift has boosted the appeal of gold, as declining interest rates make gold more attractive. Following the…

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The Spring Doldrums in The Gold Market May Be Changing Soon

Over the past five years, data shows distinct patterns in the seasonality of gold prices. September has consistently been weak, with prices often closing lower than they opened, suggesting a decrease in market confidence or a shift in investment focus. In contrast, due to increased buying, July has shown a…

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The Corn Bulls Continue Their Chatter as Prices Keep Making New Lows

This time last year, new crop corn futures traded above $6.00 due to low supply caused by adverse weather and geopolitical issues, including the invasion of Ukraine. US farmers expected these trends to persist and held onto their crops, anticipating price increases. However, a record production year in the US…

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Stock Market: Will New Quarter Bring New Money?

As a new quarter approaches, investors are eager to see if fresh capital will flow into the stock market. With economic indicators showing mixed signals and the Federal Reserve pausing, market participants closely watch for signs of renewed investment. Will the promise of cooling inflation and a potential easing cycle…

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Seasonal Downtrend in Interest Rates Gains Momentum

Another Federal Reserve Board meeting has left the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 5.25 to 5.50%. Due to the stickiness of inflation being higher than their 2% target, they have reduced the chances of rate cuts to only once this year instead of the original 3-4 times. The 10-year Treasury…

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Corn Prices – Sub $3.25 Before $6.00 Per Bushel?

Based on the continuous futures contract, corn prices peaked at nearly $8.25 in May 2022. The rally was in response to the Russian attack on Ukraine, forcing international grain prices to rally. Since that time, the price has declined to $4.50. Corn has a bullish seasonal pattern after the planting…

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Long-Term Yields Poised to Fall – Lower Mortgage Rates Near

Are you looking to buy a new home or refinance at a lower rate? The media is talking about rates being higher for longer. And they are correct about short-term rates that don't impact mortgages as much as longer-term yields do. While the Fed plays political games to garner votes…

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Nasdaq Market Has Perfect Bullish Historical Pattern – Don't Sell in May!

"Sell in May and come back after Labor Day" is a well-known adage in the stock market that suggests investors should sell their stock holdings in May and return to the market after Labor Day in September. But, like so many market clichés, sayings that aren't supported by historical data…

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What's Left in the US Dollar Seasonal Rally?

Despite no signs of deceleration in US growth and geopolitical risk, the US Dollar has rallied 6% off its year-to-date seasonal low. While the European Central Bank (ECB) is considering rate cuts in June, Great Britain is in a recession, and the US continues to have a sticky inflation rate,…

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