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The Latest Breaking News from CFTC

Prediction markets under pressure to crack down on rogue bettors and stop insider trading

A soldier betting on an operation to oust Venezuela’s leader

The Independent UK

U.S. special forces soldier arrested over Polymarket bets on Maduro raid

This appears to be the first prosecution for alleged insider trading on a prediction market.

Axios

John Oliver on prediction markets: ‘Betting on war is really dark’

The Last Week Tonight host dug into the rapidly expanding, poorly regulated free-for-all of ‘prediction markets’ like Kalshi and Polymarket

The Guardian - US

From analysis to the latest developments in health,
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Kalshi’s fight over sports betting is hurtling toward the Supreme Court—and the future of gambling is at stake

Kalshi is in a make-or-break fight to preserve a lucrative new prediction markets industry, expected to grow to over $200 billion this year.

Fortune

Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on?

Suspicious wagers on the US-Israel war in Iran are creating huge windfalls and raising concerns among lawmakers

The Guardian - US

Betting against political prediction markets

The rise of political prediction markets and several well-timed trades have spurred lawmakers to introduce multiple bills aimed at stopping or regulating insider trading in prediction markets. But lawmakers are far from agreeing on how far to extend such bans. “Members of Congress should be prohibited from participating in prediction…

Roll Call

CFTC bucks trend, seeks more money from Congress and proposes fees

In a time of budget austerity for most Trump administration agencies, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission stands apart as a regulator that is asking Congress for more money. The CFTC is requesting $410 million for fiscal 2027, an increase of $45 million, or 12 percent, from its enacted fiscal 2026 level.…

Roll Call

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Prediction markets are back the spotlight, this time because of the war in Iran

Prediction markets let people wager on anything from a basketball game to the outcome of a presidential election — and recently, even the fate of the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran

The Independent UK

US government sues Illinois, alleging unlawful efforts to regulate prediction markets

Booming prediction market sites, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, face scrutiny from states and Congress

The Guardian - US

New top federal enforcer has his sights set on ending insider trading in prediction markets

“We will aggressively detect, investigate, and where appropriate, prosecute insider trading in the prediction markets,” said CFTC director of enforcement David Miller.

Fortune

Flutter Stock Could Be a Big Winner as Lawmakers Zero In on Prediction Markets. Should You Buy FLUT Here?

Flutter's stock is surging on strong results, but a new bipartisan bill targeting prediction markets could shake up FLUT's boldest growth bet. Here's what investors need to know.

Barchart

Hogs Mixed at Midday

Lean hog futures are mixed at midday, with most contracts within 30 cents of unchanged. USDA’s national base hog price was not reported on Monday morning due to light volume. The CME Lean Hog Index was back down 9 cents on March 19 at $91.95. Friday’s CFTC Commitment of Traders...

Barchart

Move to ban sports betting on prediction sites sees bipartisan support

IN FULL

The Independent UK

Senators want to ban sports betting on prediction sites like Polymarket and Kalshi: report

Sens. Adam Schiff and John Curtis want to prevent the apps from allowing sports betting as the practice becomes more integrated in professional leagues

The Independent UK

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The Guardian - US

New crypto regulations likely to be big favor to the Trump family, industry insiders say

Regulators narrow securities definitions – a shift that could benefit Trump family’s crypto projects

Fortune

Kalshi locks in $22 billion valuation, gaining slight edge over its fierce rival Polymarket

The startup has doubled its valuation in about two months.

The Independent UK

MLB partners with Polymarket, makes integrity pact with federal commission on prediction markets

Major League Baseball is entering an official partnership with Polymarket and has an agreement with the federal commission overseeing prediction markets to collaborate on integrity concerns

Fortune

Mick Mulvaney: Stop calling it a 'prediction market.' It’s sports betting

The former White House chief of staff says it's time to call the illegal gambling operation, run through a regulatory backdoor, what it really is.

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International Business Times

Arizona Charges Kalshi in Crackdown on Alleged Illegal Gambling

The web-based prediction market platform Kalshi is facing criminal charges brought by the state of Arizona for operating an alleged illegal gambling business, allowing users to bet on elections.

Barchart

What's Driving Grains Higher?

The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report confirmed what I already knew in the Grains sector.

Barchart

Corn Closes Higher on Friday as CFTC Data Shows Spec Longs Flooding In

Corn futures rounded out the Friday session with contracts steady in some deferreds to 4 ¾ cents higher in the front months as March expired. May closed the week with a 6 ¾ cent gain from on the week. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was up 4 3/4...

Barchart

Cotton Posts Friday Rally

Cotton futures posted Friday gains of as little as 7 points in some deferreds, with front months up as much as 74 points. May was up 165 points on the week.. Crude oil was up $3.57 to $99.30, with the US dollar index up $0.776 to $100.530. CFTC data from...

The Guardian - UK

Betting on nuclear war: what are prediction markets and could they come to the UK?

The lowdown on Polymarket and Kalshi, the pitfalls and the odds on US-style exchanges taking off in Britain

Roll Call

Life After Congress: A prediction market duo

Sean Patrick Maloney and Patrick McHenry didn’t see eye to eye in Congress — but they’re united on this.

International Business Times

Prediction Market Traders Who Made Millions Betting on Iran Strikes Spark Insider Trading Concerns

A small group of traders on Polymarket have earned substantial profits by wagering on the timing and outcomes of U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran.

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