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The Latest Breaking News from Aaron David Miller

Trump’s Penrose stairs in Iran: Why ‘finishing the job’ is so hard

US President Trump's Iran strategy faces persistent challenges and limited strategic gains. Iran retains leverage through its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. Military strikes have not fundamentally altered Iranian behavior or political calculations. Escalation carries significant risks of wider retaliation and economic pressure. The current situation suggests a…

The Economic Times

Where does Iran deal leave US-Israel relationship as they reach ‘a fork in the road’?

Israeli prime minister who had dominated relations with five US presidents faces prospect of Israel going it alone against Iran

The Guardian - US

Iran war 'has been a strategic disaster for the State of Israel', analyst says

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is on a collision course with Donald Trump as the US president seeks to extricate himself from the Iran war, with both men's goals unmet and Israeli military operations tied down in Lebanon. Speaking with FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney, Aaron David Miller, senior fellow at…

France 24

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Trump in tough spot as he tries to avoid deal that highlights US failures in Iran

Washington facing long economic war or risky military action to reopen strait of Hormuz – which may now be more valuable to Iran than a nuclear weapon

The Guardian - UK

‘Tethered to a galaxy far, far away’: Former diplomats doubt Trump’s Iran talks can deliver in time

Oil is already climbing again after the ceasefire started withering this weekend.

Fortune

As Iran war passes one-month mark, mission creep clouds Trump’s strategy

Mission creep has stymied U.S. presidents in the Middle East and beyond, and now the escalation of President Donald Trump’s military operation in Iran has left him with no clear off-ramp as congressional Democrats lambaste his command of the war. The commander in chief and his top war aides initially…

Roll Call

‘Impulsive and emotional’: Trump tosses traditional wartime presidency blueprint

President Donald Trump has thrown out the blueprint for the wartime American presidency — and it has hindered his management of the Iran conflict, former officials and analysts said. Those experts said this week that where previous U.S. commanders in chief have sought to portray a steel will and generals-based…

Roll Call

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Trump says Iran ‘regime change’ achieved as he seeks a tricky peace deal

In his sudden pivot to negotiations toward a deal with Iran, President Donald Trump has contradicted his own recent statements while declaring Tuesday that “regime change” had been achieved. The U.S. commander in chief told reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday that Iranian leaders were “all gone,” adding, “Nobody…

Roll Call

One of the oddest UN resolutions in history seeks to solidify shaky Gaza ceasefire into an enduring peace

The hazy UN resolution dictates that Trump’s ‘board of peace’ will supervise an International Stabilisation Force, whose membership is as yet undetermined

The Guardian - UK

The ‘enormous conflict of interest’ at centre of Jared Kushner’s Gaza ceasefire deal

US president’s son-in-law was instrumental in getting deal – which could bring him huge windfall if plan to redevelop Gaza ever comes to fruition

The Guardian - UK

With All-or-nothing Gaza Plan, Trump Turns Tables For Israel

In presenting a Gaza plan as an ultimatum to Hamas, US President Donald Trump has turned the tables to give Israel the advantage diplomatically -- and an even freer rein on the ground if a deal fails.

International Business Times

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio travelling to Israel after Qatari prime minister meeting

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to arrive in Israel on Sunday, following his meeting with Qatar's prime minister, in a delicate balance between the two allies.

Euronews

‘Two weeks’: GOP hawks left twisting on Iran after Trump resorts to familiar crutch - Roll Call

ANALYSIS — President Trump is leaning on his “two-week” crutch, leaving some GOP hawks out to dry after they urged him to strike Iran.

Roll Call

Trump’s foreign policy is not so unusual for the US – he just drops the facade of moral leadership

The US has zagged from isolation to imperialism, but Trump has ‘emptied the ethical and moral frame’ of diplomacy

The Guardian - US

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Evening Standard

'We are doing GREAT,' claims Donald Trump after 100 days back in White House despite tariffs carnage and wars

The US president tries to dismiss polls showing his falling ratings as ‘fake news’

Top News

Trump Boosts Netanyahu's Political Power During White House Visit

President Trump's political support for Netanyahu during White House visit and proposal to relocate Palestinians from Gaza under US control.

Al Jazeera

Biden has pivoted to allow Ukraine to use US missiles in Russia. Why now?

Analysts point to shifting realities on battlefield, looming Trump presidency as likely reasons for long-awaited move.

The Guardian - US

If Trump wins the election, this is what’s at stake for US foreign policy

If elected again, Trump’s policies may largely be shaped by the candidate himself – and it may be more chaotic than it was eight years ago

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The Guardian - UK

US looks unable to talk Netanyahu out of planned invasion of Lebanon

An emboldened Israel appears to believe it can safely ignore a lame duck US president and grab the chance to reset the Middle East’s security dynamics

Reason

Martin Indyk Got Us Knee-Deep Into the Middle East—and Then Tried To Get Us Out

The late U.S. diplomat helped form America’s policies towards Iran, Iraq, and Israel. By the end of his life, he'd had enough.

The Guardian - US

Netanyahu upstaged by Biden and Harris on highly anticipated US visit

Israeli prime minister lands in Washington but all eyes are on president and vice-president after 2024 race shake-up

The Guardian - US

As Netanyahu arrives in Washington, Kamala Harris treads a careful path on Israel and Gaza

Harris insiders say she is more likely to engage in public criticism of the Israeli prime minister than Biden and to focus attention on the civilian toll in Gaza

The Guardian - US

US steps up sanctions against Israeli settlers and ‘outposts’ in occupied West Bank

Targeting ‘outposts’ suggests Biden administration prepared to take some action to confront blatant land grab

Roll Call

Arab leaders’ Gaza demands give Biden another election-year headache - Roll Call

Arab leaders' desire for a new “political horizon” for Gaza complicates Biden’s efforts in the region — and his bid for a second term.

The Guardian - US

Joe Biden’s ‘red line’ is an invasion of Rafah. So what happens if Israel attacks?

It’s a moment of truth for Biden’s policy on Israel and the Palestinians – and at the least will make continued prevarication harder to disguise

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