Carriers continue to roll out earnings this week with American Airlines and Southwest set to report Thursday, followed by Alaska Air on Friday. The results come after Delta Air Lines topped estimates earlier this month, while United Airlines posted mixed results.
Evercore, in a late September note, wrote that airline demand has improved significantly in Q3 and sees a "promising setup" for carriers heading into 2026, The Fly reported. However, the extended government shutdown since the start of the month has prompted staffing shortages and flight delays at airports across the country.
American Airlines
Analysts polled by FactSet expect American Airlines to report a loss of 28 cents per share adjusted, compared to earnings of 30 cents per share adjusted last year. Analysts forecast revenue will dip slightly to $13.63 billion, with a 3% decline in revenue per available seat mile.
Passenger revenue for American Airlines is expected to decline about 1% to $12.4 billion.
American Airlines stock declined 2.1% Wednesday to slide further below its 50-day moving average. The stock has retreated more than 30% so far this year.
Southwest
Southwest is expected to report a loss of 4 cents per share adjusted, falling from earnings of 15 cents per share adjusted last year. FactSet forecasts that revenue will tick up 0.7% to $6.92 billion.
Passenger revenue is expected to ease to $6.24 billion, offset by 12% growth in "other" revenue, which encompasses loyalty programs and baggage fees.
Analysts expect that passenger revenue per available seat mile will grow slightly.
The stock declined 2.8% Wednesday.
Southwest shares are trending up the right side of a 15-week cup base, but still have some distance to the 37.96 buy point. That entry matches Southwest's 2025 high from mid-July.
LUV stock has advanced a fraction in 2025.
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Alaska Air Estimates
United Airlines Posted Mixed Results
United Airlines on Oct. 15 reported earnings of $2.78 per share adjusted to beat estimates for $2.65 per share. Revenue increased more than 3% to $15.22 billion, but missed views for $15.33 billion.
Loyalty revenue for Q3 rose 9%, while premium cabin revenue grew 6%. Basic economy revenue climbed 4%; cargo revenue increased 3%. The airline also increased its capacity by 7.2% compared to last year, but total revenue per seat mile declined 4.3%.
United continues to enhance its flight experiences, including plans for over $1 billion on Starlink installations, seat back screens, and 25% more on food. The company plans to invest an additional $1 billion to improve customer experiences in 2026.
Still, United said the "great momentum" should continue in Q4, and expects the fourth-quarter to mark a record for quarterly operating revenue.
United expects Q4 earnings to range from $3 to $3.50 per share, while FactSet analysts expect $3.30 per share.
United Airlines stock retreated 5.6% on Oct. 16 after earnings.
Shares have since faced resistance at their 50-day moving average, and are down almost 1% on the year.
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Delta Stock Near Buy Zone
Delta Air Lines stock fell 3.7% Wednesday to 60.00, to slide below a cup-with-handle buy point.
Shares on Tuesday climbed above the 62.27 buy point on an attempted breakout. The current buy zone extends to 65.38.
Delta on Oct. 9 topped expectations with a 14% increase in adjusted earnings on 4.1% adjusted sales growth.
Industry fundamentals had improved and momentum was continuing, CEO Ed Bastian said in the release. That sets the company up "to deliver strong December quarter earnings. Looking to 2026, Delta is well positioned to deliver top-line growth, margin expansion and earnings improvement consistent with our long-term financial framework."
For the fourth quarter, Delta expects revenue to increase 2% to 4%. The company expects earnings to range from $1.60 to $1.90 per share.
Delta also narrowed its full-year earnings outlook. The airline initially pulled its guidance back in April and reinstated it for its June-quarter results as travel demand and the business stabilized. For 2025, Delta expects earnings of about $6 per share, with free cash flow between $3.5 billion and $4 billion. Delta's Q2 guidance called for full-year earnings between $5.25 and $6.25 per share.
"I'm glad to see we're out of it. We're back on track to where we were looking to be originally," Bastian told The Wall Street Journal. "I anticipate for the fourth quarter we will see, hopefully, the best fourth-quarter performance in our history."
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