The Middle East is bracing for another protracted conflict after Israel's surprise bombardment on Friday of Iranian nuclear and military sites killed several of the country's top generals and nuclear scientists. Iran has responded with strikes on Israel. As the situation escalates, there are concerns about the global impact. RFI asked a specialist on geopolitics at the French Institute for International Relations about the possible consequences for the African continent.
With Israel and Iran exchanging fire for a fifth day, and planned talks on Iran's nuclear programme called off, there is growing concern about the potential impact beyond the Middle East.
Benjamin Augé, a researcher with the Africa and Climate programme at the French Institute for International Relations spoke to RFI about the practical and diplomatic consequences for Africa.
Benjamin Augé: I think it’s important to recall the historical context of Israel’s and Iran’s relationships with Africa. Israel had extremely strong ties with many African countries during the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s – until the Yom Kippur War, when most of them severed diplomatic relations with Israel.
Since [Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu returned to power in 2009, his objective has been to rebuild those relationships. Currently, more than 40 African countries have diplomatic ties with Israel. But that doesn’t necessarily mean Israel wields significant influence in Africa.
Since the 7 October, 2023 attacks [by Hamas on Israel] and Israel’s subsequent war in Gaza, many of its normally pro-Israel partners – Togo, Cote d'Ivoire, Cameroon and Rwanda – have kept their distance. Rwanda even began delivering aid to Gaza as early as 20 October, 2023. So we’re already seeing Israel’s diplomatic position in Africa under significant strain.
The conflict in Gaza further weakens these already fragile ties – which are, in many cases, quite weak or practically non-existent in political and economic terms. So I think the conflict with Iran is not going to have a dramatic impact, given that Israel’s relationships with Africa are already weak and its exchanges with the continent are extremely limited.
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RFI: What about Iran?
BA: Iran’s relationships with Africa are also extremely weak. The most significant recent development was Niger opening an embassy in Tehran [in January 2024] after its coup against President Bazoum, and negotiations related to uranium – a move that raised alarm in the United States.
But aside from a few embassies with limited diplomatic staffing, mainly in predominantly Sunni areas in East Africa or the Sahel, Iran’s influence is very weak.
Tehran's main objective in these areas is often related to spreading Shiism, for instance in Nigeria with Imam Zakzaky – a politically controvesial Shiite cleric. Apart from that, Iran, much like Israel, is not putting many resources into its Africa policy or even developing a policy for the continent. So whatever happens in the Middle East, its effects on Africa will be limited due to this weak diplomatic presence.
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RFI: Are we likely to see any African governments responding to the escalating conflict with policy statements?
BA: It’s not impossible that some governments may view Israel’s actions against Iran as aggression and may speak up – framing their criticism in terms of international law. Iran didn’t attack, Israel did, and that's a violation of international law. But I don't think they'll go much further than that, because there’s nothing for these countries to gain by strongly taking sides.
This is a peripheral conflict for them, and Israel’s image in Africa is already quite poor – not just in predominantly Sunni or Muslim countries, but more broadly. So if there’s a response, it’s likely to be a diplomatic note from the foreign ministry, emphasising international law, and that's it. Some may align with Iran, but it would be a small and marginal number.
RFI: What about oil and gas? Could the continent be impacted economically?
BA: Yes, there might be a ripple effect for the continent, just as there will be for the rest of the world. The price of oil might increase temporarily due to the conflict. But we shouldn’t forget that the price per barrel is currently quite low and the market is well-stocked. So I think the impact will be limited and short-lived. The main consequence for Africa might be a slight increase in petrol prices in the months ahead – but it would be a small variation, especially when we compare it to periods when tensions were much greater.
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Q: What happens if the conflict persists?
BA: If it continues, there might be some upward pressure on prices. But the reality is that the market is well-stocked and geopolitical tensions are not affecting production or delivery. Iran, in particular, is a small oil producer. Because of longstanding sanctions, it produces about 3 million barrels per day and exports roughly 2 million. The global market is currently at 100 million barrels per day. So the conflict’s long-term impact, both in price and in volume, is likely to be limited.
This interview, adapted from the original in French, has been lightly edited for clarity.
