US stock index futures fell Thursday and oil prices climbed sharply after President Donald Trump's televised address on the Iran conflict failed to deliver clear signals of a near‑term resolution, prompting renewed risk‑off sentiment among investors.
Trump said that while U.S. military objectives were "nearing completion," forces would continue to strike targets in Iran over the "next two to three weeks," without offering a concrete exit roadmap, a development that disappointed traders hoping for de‑escalation.
Just before Trump's address, futures had rallied during two sessions on renewed hopes of de‑escalation, following reports that Iran might be open to ending hostilities, lifting stocks and easing some pressure on oil, Business Standard noted. The optimism was quickly reversed after Trump's speech as investors reacted to the lack of a clear end‑of‑war plan.
Analysts cited by The Economic Times said investors were "away from what they were looking for" as the speech did not deliver the definitive end‑of‑war signals markets had priced in.
Futures tied to the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq 100 all slid as markets reacted to the address, with major U.S. stock benchmarks pointing to a lower open after earlier gains in the week. Reuters noted that the absence of clear direction on when the conflict might end sent investors back to safer assets like the U.S. dollar, while equity risk appetite faded.
Oil benchmarks, in contrast, surged following the speech, reflecting heightened concerns over prolonged supply risks in the Middle East. Brent crude futures jumped more than 7%, reaching levels not seen in several weeks, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also climbed sharply, according to Reuters. The rise came as uncertainty over the conflict's duration raised fears of sustained disruption on crude flows, particularly in and around the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy chokepoint.
Asian stocks also fell after the address as markets extended the risk‑off tone, selling equities and reacting to the likelihood of continued military action. The broader reaction highlighted how geopolitical uncertainty remains a dominant driver of market moves, with investors adjusting positions in both equities and energy markets.
Analysts told Reuters that traders had hoped for more detailed insights into a possible ceasefire or diplomatic initiative, but the speech's emphasis on continued strikes instead reinforced caution. As a result, stock futures weakened, the dollar strengthened, and oil prices climbed, which was the opposite pattern observed when de‑escalation hopes had briefly lifted markets earlier in the week.
The reversal in sentiment underlines the high sensitivity of markets to geopolitical developments, especially as investors balance inflationary pressures from rising energy prices with broader growth concerns. With the absence of a clear end in sight and the potential for extended conflict, traders are likely to remain cautious heading into the next session.
