Former President Donald Trump’s campaign is preparing for potential shifts in polling data following the Democratic National Convention for Vice President Kamala Harris. A memo from Trump pollsters predicts a slight temporary increase in Harris' support post-convention, a common trend after party conventions.
The memo suggests that Harris may experience a 2 to 3 point bump in public polls, attributing it to the typical post-convention bounce. This prediction aligns with an earlier forecast of a 'honeymoon' period for Harris after she joined the Democratic ticket, which has materialized in recent polling data.
Before Biden ended his re-election campaign, he trailed Trump in the Poll of Polls at 45% to 49%. However, the latest data shows a shift, with Harris leading at 50% to Trump's 48%. The memo credits this trend to favorable media coverage of the vice president.
Despite potential national polling showing Harris in the lead, the memo advises focusing on key target states to secure the necessary 270 Electoral College votes for victory. It emphasizes the importance of winning these states to achieve the campaign's electoral goals.
