Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. I’m hoping that writing about the quiet deadline can turn out to be a jinx and there will have been a flurry of trades by the time you’re reading this.
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In today’s SI:AM:
🧳 The Migration Generation
🏈 Michigan preview
🦬 Breer at Bills camp
The clock is ticking
The MLB trade deadline is one day away (6 p.m. ET on Thursday), but we’re still waiting for the action to heat up.
The trade market appeared to get a jolt last week when the Mariners traded for former All-Star first baseman Josh Naylor, but that remains the biggest trade executed this month. While there have been other deals made, they’ve all been quite minor. The Yankees acquired third baseman Ryan McMahon, who’s been a below-average hitter his entire nine-year MLB career. The Royals got veteran outfielder Randal Grichuk, who was playing below replacement level this season with the Diamondbacks. The Brewers added Danny Jansen from the Rays to be their new backup catcher.
The most interesting trade made thus far was the deal between the Orioles and Blue Jays that sent Seranthony Domínguez to Toronto—not because Domínguez is some great player (a 30-year-old middle reliever) but because the trade was made in between games of a doubleheader between the O’s and Jays. Domínguez walked down the hall to the other clubhouse before the second game of the doubleheader and made his Toronto debut hours later. (He pitched a scoreless seventh to keep the game tied, although the Orioles later broke the deadlock and went on to win.)
So what’s the deal with this inactive deadline? Or has it even been as slow as it seems? The Domínguez deal was the 11th trade made in the last six days, which, as Jake Mintz and Jordan Shusterman of Céspedes Family BBQ point out, is on par with recent deadlines. Last year, there were 16 trades made over the same period. There were 15 trades during that span in 2023 and seven in ’22.
Historically, it isn’t until the day before the deadline that the trade market really heats up. Rumors might be flying all week long, but teams tend to negotiate until the last minute before they actually consummate a deal. Last year, there were 11 trades made the day before the deadline and a whopping 32 made on deadline day. In 2023, there were eight trades made the day before the deadline and 22 made the day of. In ’22, a whopping 38 of the 45 trades made during the deadline period (84%) were executed in the final two days.
This deadline has been a little strange for a couple of reasons. For one, Emmanuel Clase, one of the top trade targets, was suddenly removed from the equation when he was placed on paid leave as part of a gambling investigation. Another top trade candidate, Diamondbacks third baseman Eugenio Suárez, was hit on the hand by a pitch on Monday and was held out of the lineup on Tuesday. The D-Backs say he’s considered day-to-day, but the injury, however minor it may be, will surely give some teams pause as they weigh whether to give up a king’s ransom for a guy who’s currently tied for second in the NL with 36 homers.
Other players have played their way out of being coveted deadline targets. White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. and Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara had been viewed at the start of this season as likely to be the subject of bidding wars at the deadline. But Robert has had a lousy year at the plate (a career-worst 79 OPS+), although his defense has still been excellent. Alcantara, the 2022 NL Cy Young winner, has been terrible this year, with a brutal 6.66 ERA in 20 starts.
The other complicating factor is that the current 12-team playoff format keeps more teams alive in the postseason hunt. There are currently six teams separated by just four games in the hunt for the final AL wild-card spot. Teams on the periphery of the playoff picture might be hesitant to sell too many pieces if they think they have a chance to make a late push and snag a postseason spot like last year’s Tigers.
While a repeat of last year’s trading frenzy seems unlikely, we’re bound to see at least some uptick in transactions during these final two days before the deadline. Fear not, rumor-hungry baseball fans, the moves are coming.
The best of Sports Illustrated
- Today’s Digital Cover is Pat Forde’s story on how the transfer portal era of college athletics leads to an itinerant life for athletes like basketball player AJ Storr, who’s now playing for his eighth school in eight different states since 2020.
- Conor Orr urges us to focus on the victims of Monday’s shooting at the NFL’s Manhattan offices, rather than the supposed motivations of the killer.
- Our preseason college football top 25 countdown continues with Bryan Fischer’s preview of No. 18 Michigan.
- Albert Breer’s report from Bills training camp has notes on how Josh Allen’s various weapons are progressing and how the offensive line could be improved.
- Karl Rasmussen believes these five teams are under the most pressure to make a splash at the MLB trade deadline.
- Bengals defensive lineman Trey Hendrickson has ended his holdout and will report to training camp despite not receiving the contract extension he was angling for.
- Juan Soto was pulled from the Mets game last night after fouling a ball off his foot.
The top five…
… things I saw last night:
5. A diving catch by A’s first baseman Nick Kurtz for the final out of the game.
4. Adolis García’s perfectly timed jump to rob a home run.
3. An even better home run robbery by Harrison Bader.
2. This nasty pass by Chelsea Gray.
1. A flawless triple play by the Buffalo Bisons.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as SI:AM | MLB Trade Market Remains Quiet Despite Approaching Deadline.
