Just under a third of the 151 seats in the House of Representative are in New South Wales, making the state crucial battleground. Labor has 10 seats in NSW on margins of less than 5%. With the Coalition fearing losses in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria, its fate could rest on how many NSW marginal seats it can nab.
Here’s a closer look at some of the seats in play.
Macquarie
Macquarie, taking in parts of the outer west of Sydney as well as the Blue Mountains and some of the Hawkesbury, is the most marginal seat in the country, held by Labor with a margin of 0.2%. Susan Templeman has held the seat since 2016 but won by just 371 votes at the last election.
Since 2019, the electorate has been hit by bushfires and floods, so recovery is likely to be front of mind for voters. Templeman will be up against Liberal candidate Sarah Richards who is a Hawkesbury local councillor. It is considered a must-win by the Coalition to help balance expected losses elsewhere in the state.
Eden-Monaro
Eden-Monaro, which covers the south-east of NSW, surrounding the ACT, was known as Australia’s bellwether seat, having been won by the party that formed government at every election from 1972 to 2016. Since 2016, however, it has been held by Labor, currently on a margin of 0.9%.
The former Bega Valley Shire mayor Kristy McBain claimed the seat by 735 votes at a 2020 by-election following the retirement of popular Labor MP Mike Kelly. She has a head start on Liberal candidate Jerry Nockles, a navy veteran and Pharmacy Guild of Australia executive, who was selected by the party only last week following the federal takeover of the NSW division.
Wentworth
The affluent seat takes in Sydney’s eastern suburbs, including Bondi, Darling Point, Paddington, Rose Bay and Vaucluse. It was previously held by Liberal leaders John Hewson and Malcolm Turnbull, though when the latter resigned in 2018, high-profile independent Kerryn Phelps won the seat. Liberal Dave Sharma reversed the by-election result at the 2019 election, winning the seat with a 1.3% margin.
Sharma now faces a challenge from another independent – Allegra Spender, a businesswoman and the daughter of the late fashion designer Carla Zampatti and the former Liberal MP John Spender. Spender is one of several climate-focused independents targeting Coalition seats and hopes to replicate Zali Steggall’s success in Warringah at the last election. Last month, Sharma denied he was trying to distance himself from the Liberal party following accusations his campaign material mimics Spender’s teal colour scheme.
Reid
Reid, covering part of Sydney’s inner-west and middle-ring suburbs, is one of the most multicultural electorates in NSW and was considered a Labor stronghold until Liberal Craig Laundy’s win in 2013. According to the 2016 census, 56.3% of people who live in Reid were born overseas and 55.3% speak a language other than English at home.
Child psychologist Fiona Martin won the seat for the Liberals with a margin of 3.2% in 2019, following Laundy’s retirement. She most recently made headlines when she crossed the floor with four other moderates to vote down Morrison’s religious freedoms bill. She is up against Labor’s Sally Sitou, who is of Chinese heritage.
Hunter
Hunter, covering the coalmining zone in the Cessnock, Singleton and Muswellbrook local government areas, has been held by Labor since February 1936. But the Nationals and One Nation are vying for the seat following the retirement of Labor stalwart Joel Fitzgibbon, whose margin was cut to a slender 3% in 2019 as the One Nation vote surged. Labor’s national executive chose coalminer and Olympic shooting medallist Daniel Repacholi as the party’s candidate, angering local members and triggering the nomination of several independents.
