Scots back independence as Keir Starmer's popularity at record low, new poll finds

SCOTLAND would vote to become an independent country if a second referendum were held tomorrow, a new poll has found.

The Ipsos survey for STV also suggested that the SNP are on course to remain the largest party at Holyrood after the 2026 elections.

John Swinney’s party recorded a constituency vote share of 34%, with Labour 11 points behind on 23%. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK polled in third place, nine points behind Labour on 14%.

The full Holyrood voting intentions were:

Constituency:

• SNP: 34%
• Labour: 23%
• Reform UK: 14%
• Conservatives: 10%
• Liberal Democrats: 9%
• Scottish Green Party: 9%
• Alba Party: 1%
• Other: 1%

Regional list:

• SNP: 26%
• Labour: 22%
• Reform UK: 16%
• Scottish Green Party: 15%
• Conservatives: 10%
• Liberal Democrats: 8%
• Alba Party: 2%
• Other: 1%

Scottish independence

On the question of how Scots would vote in a new independence referendum, 52% said they would back Yes, while 48% supported remaining a part of the Union.

However, despite the support for independence, the Scottish public did not rank the issue in the top 10 most important to sway how they vote. These were:

• Healthcare/NHS/hospitals – 69%
• Inflation/rising cost of living – 52%
• Public services generally – 42%
• Lack of faith in politicians/parties/government – 41%
• Poverty/inequality – 40%
• Education/schools – 40%
• Economy/economic situation – 37%
• Housing – 37%
• Care for older and disabled people – 36%
• Crime and anti-social behaviour/law and order – 35%

For the Scottish public as a whole, 24% rated independence as a top-10 issue, compared to 50% of those who said they would vote SNP in 2026.

Westminster

Ipsos's poll predicted that, if a new General Election were held tomorrow, the SNP would lead Scottish Labour by nine points.

The Scottish Tories would collapse to just 10% of the vote, it projected, equal with the Scottish Greens.

The full Westminster voting intention results were:

• SNP: 31%
• Labour: 22%
• Reform UK: 16%
• Conservatives: 10%
• Scottish Green Party: 10%
• Liberal Democrats: 9%
• Alba Party: 1%
• Other: 1%

Politicians' popularity

Elsewhere, the polling also found that Keir Starmer's approval rating among the Scottish public is at a new low.

In the poll marking on year since he entered Downing Street, 64% of Scots said they were dissatisfied with the Labour leader's performance, while just 22% approved. Among Scots who voted Labour in the 2024 General Election, half (49%) now disapprove of Starmer's performance.

The Prime Minister's net approval rating of -42 puts him just one point ahead of Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, who scored -43. In total, 56% of Scots disapproved of Badenoch, while just 13% approved.

SNP leader and First Minister John Swinney was also in the negative, but on -17 was 25 points clear of Starmer. In total 49% disapproved of the SNP leader, while 32% approved.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage had a net rating of -30, with 54% of Scots disapproving and 24% approving of his performance.

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1066 adults between June 12 and June 18 for the poll, which was published on Tuesday.

In more recent weeks, Starmer has faced the largest rebellion of his time as Prime Minister. After more than 120 Labour MPs opposed plans to cut £5 billion per year from disability benefits, Starmer was forced into concessions which will face a crunch vote on Tuesday evening.

Emily Gray, the managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said: “These new results show how dramatically Scotland’s political landscape has shifted compared with a year ago.

“Reform UK have made significant strides in Scotland to become the third largest party in both Westminster and Holyrood voting intentions.

“While neither Nigel Farage nor Keir Starmer are popular amongst the Scottish public at present, Starmer’s ratings have now fallen behind Farage’s, far from the situation the Prime Minister would want as he marks his first anniversary in Downing Street this week.”

​SNP depute leader Keith Brown (Image: PA) SNP depute leader Keith Brown said:  “This opinion poll reflects what many across the country already feel – that the Labour government is treating Scotland as an afterthought, and only the SNP can be trusted to stand up for Scotland.  

“On a range of key issues like the NHS, the SNP is the party most trusted to deliver – while Keir Starmer’s Labour government has lurched from one disaster to another.  With their latest cuts targeting disabled people and balancing the books on the backs of the vulnerable, people in Scotland just cannot trust Labour.

“And with the UK Labour Government letting Scotland down, more and more people are coming to the conclusion that Westminster will never work for Scotland and we should become an independent country.

“But we are taking nothing for granted and are focused on delivering for the people of Scotland and providing hope for a better future with independence.”