A MAJOR poll has found that Reform UK would pick up its first Westminster seats in Scotland if a General Election were held today.
The survey by YouGov – its first MRP poll since last year's General Election – found that Reform UK would become the largest party in Westminster with 271 MPs.
This includes three MPs in Scotland – marking the first time a poll has shown Reform UK winning seats north of the Border.
The poll, based on a survey of more than 11,500 British adults between May 29 and June 18, found that Labour would lose 233 seats and would drop to just 178 MPs, making it the second biggest party in Westminster.
Meanwhile, the LibDems would have 81 MPs and the Tories would come in fourth at just 46 MPs – losing 75 seats.
The SNP look set to gain seats, with the poll predicting they will go from a total of nine to 38 MPs, making them the biggest party in Scotland.
However, Reform UK would also make gains in Scotland, with the poll showing Nigel Farage's party picking up seats for the first time.
As reported in The Times, Reform UK would pick up three seats in the south of Scotland:
- Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock (Reform 28.3%, Labour 22.2%, SNP 20.8%)
- Dumfries & Galloway (Reform 27.8%, SNP 22.2%, Tory 20.2%)
- Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale (Reform 26.8%, Tory 24.2%, SNP 18.1%)
YouGov's seat projection also reveals that Reform UK would finish in the top three of every single constituency in Scotland except from one – Edinburgh North and Leith.
The total seat projection for the whole of Britain is:
- Reform UK: 271 seats (+266)
- Labour: 178 seats (-233)
- LibDems: 81 seats (+9)
- Conservatives: 46 seats (-75)
- SNP: 38 seats (+29)
- Greens: 7 seats (+3)
- Plaid: 7 seats (+3)
The MRP (which stands for Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) poll is not a forecast, but an estimate of what could happen. It is based on thousands of people and links voters and characteristics to help with its projection.
The poll comes as the Labour Government is facing calls for a "regime change" amid internal rebellion over planned cuts to welfare.
More than 120 Labour MPs have signed an amendment opposing the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill, which seeks to cut disability benefits by around £5 billion per year.
The amendment has also been backed by the SNP, the Greens and Independent MPs.
Acccording to The Times, new Labour MPs have told colleagues that voting down the legislation would help get rid of “overexcitable boys” from Starmer’s team of advisers.
