There are just 32 head coaching gigs available in the NFL, so all of them are desirable. This past year, 10 of these jobs changed hands, tying a league record from 1978, ’97 and 2006.
Becoming the face of a franchise, hiring a coaching staff, establishing a culture, roster building and coming up with schematics to get the most out of the talent on the roster is an uphill battle for most coaches in Year 1. This season has been no different for the men who have taken on these leadership roles. Some have flourished, while others might not get a second year.
So with only four games left in the regular season, this is as good a time as any to assess the progress of these first-year coaches. We have a pretty good sample size of who’s making the most progress at the top and who still has some work to do at the bottom.
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Mike McDaniel, Dolphins (8–5): McDaniel worked under 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan as his run-game coordinator for four seasons and one year as offensive coordinator. The Dolphins have been a streaky team this year, going 3–0 to start the season and then losing three straight. They also reeled off five consecutive wins before losing their last two games, to the 49ers and Chargers. Still, McDaniel has had an impressive season, especially working with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has thrown for 3,000-plus yards and 22 touchdowns, and has a 73.0 QBR. McDaniel has also gotten the most out of Tyreek Hill, who is having a big season with 100 catches for 1,460 yards. Miami is currently the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoff race but finishes the season with road games at the Bills and Patriots and home games vs. the Packers and Jets.
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Kevin O’Connell, Vikings (10–3): O’Connell took over a Vikings team from Mike Zimmer that tied an NFL record by playing in 14 one-score games in 2021, going 6–8. When the margin was four points or fewer, they were 2–5. Enter O’Connell, who is 9–0 in one-score games, has the Vikings on the verge of an NFC North title and has gotten the most out of Kirk Cousins (3,358 yards, 20 TDs), who had a rocky relationship with Zimmer. O’Connell, who was the offensive coordinator with the Super Bowl champion Rams under Sean McVay, has made Justin Jefferson the focal point of his offense. Jefferson is a leading candidate for Offensive Player of the Year with 99 receptions for 1,500 yards and six touchdowns. While the offense has flourished under O’Connell, the defense continues to have its issues, including giving up 400-plus yards in five consecutive games. How the Vikings finish the regular season and the playoffs will depend on whether O’Connell can come up with ways to limit teams with an aging and leaky defense.
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Brian Daboll, Giants (7-5-1): The Giants got off to a 6–1 start but have lost four of their past six games. Still, they are currently the No. 7 seed in the NFC playoff race, so Daboll has gotten a lot out of a roster short of elite-level talent except for Saquon Barkley. His future likely will depend on what GM Joe Schoen and he decide to do at the quarterback position. Daniel Jones has played O.K., but the Giants—they average only 180.5 passing yards per game, 28th in the league—are going to have to do more to compete with the Eagles and Cowboys in the NFC East. Is Jones the answer? We’ll find out this offseason.
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Doug Pederson, Jaguars (5–8): Pederson’s Jaguars are 3–6 in one-score games, including four consecutive losses to the Eagles, Texans, Colts and Giants. Still, the Jaguars have played solid football the entire season, including impressive wins over the Raiders, Ravens and Titans in three of the past five games. Pederson’s biggest challenge coming into the season was to get No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence on track after a disastrous season under Urban Meyer, and that’s exactly what he’s done. Lawrence has thrown for 3,202 yards and 20 TDs, and completed 66% of his passes. In his past five games, he’s thrown for 10 TDs and no picks, including 300-plus passing yards in wins over the Titans and Ravens. Pederson has the Jaguars on track to compete for the AFC South in 2023.
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Todd Bowles, Buccaneers (6–7): Bowles was Bruce Arians’s hand-picked successor after he served under Arians as defensive coordinator. It’s not been an easy first season for Bowles, whose team has endured multiple injuries to key players on the offensive line as well as on defense. Plus, quarterback Tom Brady was in and out of training camp and has endured an up-and-down season despite an amazing come-from-behind win against the Saints in Week 13. The Buccaneers lead the NFC South and could squeak into the playoffs with a below-.500 record as the No. 4 seed. Bowles’s future could depend on developing a new quarterback with Brady slated to become a free agent at season’s end.
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Josh McDaniels, Raiders (5–8): McDaniels, in his second stint as a head coach, inherited a 10–7 playoff team from the Jon Gruden–Rich Bisaccia Raiders and have been inconsistent the entire season. While we discussed earlier how the Vikings are 9–0 in one-score games, the Raiders are just 3–7. And losses to Baker Mayfield fewer than 48 hours after he joined the Rams and losing to the Colts and Jeff Saturday, who had never coached an NFL game, are inexcusable. McDaniels’s future with the team likely will depend on what he and GM Dave Ziegler decide to do with quarterback Derek Carr, who they can release after the season with only a $5.6 million dead cap charge.
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Matt Eberflus, Bears (3–10): Eberflus and GM Ryan Poles made a lot of tough decisions during the offseason, cutting salary. During the season, they traded middle linebacker Roquan Smith, who wanted a new deal. The Bears will have over $100 million in cap space for 2023 and should have the resources to build around quarterback Justin Fields, who has shown a lot of promise. Eberflus’s move to install Luke Getsy as OC was one of his best, and now the Bears could be set up to see Fields really elevate his play next season. Eberflus and the Bears did a lot of the hard work this season to set themselves up for the future.
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Dennis Allen, Saints (4–9): While the Saints have not been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs—no team in the NFC South is over .500—they are guaranteed their first losing season since 2016, when Sean Payton went 7–9 for the third consecutive year. Allen’s team has been competitive in almost every game thanks to his defense, but consistency at the quarterback position has hurt the Saints. They’ve played musical quarterbacks since 2020, rotating Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill and now Andy Dalton. Allen’s first order of business for ’23 should be to solidify the most important position on the team. If he’s successful, the Saints should be back at the top of the division. If not, it could prove to be his downfall.
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Lovie Smith, Texans (1-11-1): The Texans are the worst team in the NFL. It’s hard to pin all of the blame on Smith, who took over from David Culley and has had to deal with the fallout of the Deshaun Watson situation. Smith will likely lose his job at season’s end, and Houston will start all over again for the third time in three seasons.
- Nathaniel Hackett, Broncos (3–10): Hackett was one of the most sought-after coaches during the last hiring cycle. But now the former Packers offensive coordinator could be gone after this season in what’s basically been a disaster for him, the Broncos and Russell Wilson. Denver gave up multiple picks to acquire Wilson, who has played subpar football for most of the season. And Wilson’s contract makes it almost impossible for the team to move on for him. That’s not the case for Hackett.
