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Sports Illustrated

Sport

Ben Steiner

Predicting the MLS Supporters’ Shield Race: How Will the Top 10 Finish?

MLS PPG Shield (Event) Lionel Messi Philadelphia (Organization) Miami Philadelphia Union The Philadelphia Union Brian White Thomas Müller

In most leagues around the world, the Supporters’ Shield would be the ultimate prize.

The 2025 MLS season has seen one of the tightest regular season title races in the league’s 30-year history, with nine teams within 10 points of the leading Philadelphia Union, and several contenders having games in hand.

With all the variables in the final weeks of the season, it may come down to Decision Day on Oct. 18 to crown a champion, but which clubs will be able to maintain their form?

Sports Illustrated predicted the rest of the 2025 Supporters' Shield race. We’ve ranked the teams based on current points-per-game standing.

Philadelphia Union

Bruno Damiani helped the Philadelphia Union to a win over the New England Revolution. | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Current Place: 1st in MLS (1st in PPG)
Current Points: 60
Opponents: D.C., NYCFC, Charlotte FC

The Philadelphia Union are the leaders after Matchday 35, coming off a 1–0 win over the New England Revolution to bring them to 60 points on the campaign. However, they had a poor previous week with a 7–0 loss to the Vancouver Whitecaps and a U.S. Open Cup semifinal loss to Nashville SC.

Andre Blake is back between the sticks after returning from an injury, and will solidify the position after some poor performances from 19-year-old goalkeeper Andrew Rick. Yet, head coach Bradley Carnell’s team seems to have lost a step in the second half of the campaign and have struggled to dominate as they had earlier.

They’ll need the best from strikers Tai Baribo and Milan Iloski, as well as maintained defensive play, to hold off the other contenders, especially with two of their three games against strong teams Charlotte FC and New York City FC.

Predicted points: 65

Inter Miami

Lionel Messi is leading Inter Miami with some outstanding form. | Mark Smith-Imagn Images

Current Place: 5th in MLS (2nd in PPG)
Current Points: 55
Opponents: Toronto, Chicago, New England, Atlanta, Nashville

Inter Miami are looking to defend their 2024 Supporters’ Shield title, and have a whopping five matches remaining, many of which come up against very beatable opponents.

After having some midseason struggles, Miami has picked up form recently and are riding a three-match win streak after defeating Seattle Sounders FC, D.C. United and New York City FC amid the early stages of a packed schedule to end the season.

For the Herons, all will lie with Lionel Messi. The Argentine legend took over the MLS Golden Boot lead with a brace and an assist in the recent win over NYCFC, and has consistently shown his ability to carry Miami with his 24 goals and 13 assists.

The concern, though, is with the rest of the squad and their ability to step up should Messi need to rest due to the congested schedule ahead of the playoffs or pick up an injury. The 38-year-old is the most important player, having contributed to 38 of the club’s 64 goals this season, and the team lacks a significant threat without his goal-scoring or chance creation.

Head coach Javier Mascherano has his side in a good position, but their hopes rely on Messi.

Predicted points: 66

Vancouver Whitecaps FC

Current Place: 4th in MLS (3rd in PPG)
Current Points: 56
Opponents: Seattle, San Jose, Orlando, Dallas

Vancouver Whitecaps FC are in strong form and have the advantage of games in hand, with four matches remaining after a midweek 1–1 draw with the Portland Timbers, which followed a 2–0 win over Sporting Kansas City and 7–0 triumph over Philadelphia.

It’s uncharted territory for the club now, after surpassing their MLS record points total with the win against SKC, and also tying their previous record with 16 wins and 13 clean sheets in the regular season. However, their games in hand and depth should give them a real shot at the title.

They missed attacking players Thomas Müller, Brian White, and Ryan Gauld, as well as center backs Tristan Blackmon and Ranko Veselinović, in the recent win over SKC, but their depth showed up in each area of the pitch, and White returned with a goal in the draw with Portland.

However, they have not gotten minutes from club captain and DP midfielder Gauld since March 8, and other key injured players include Blackmon and Vesilinović, the latter of whom is out for the season. Müller, meanwhile, is expected to return for at least the Canadian Championship Final on Oct. 1, if not sooner.

With the level of opponents, amount of travel and importance of the Canadian Championship final, it may be tough for the Whitecaps to stay in the race for the Shield, but it could also come down to a Decision Day of scoreboard watching.

Predicted Points: 63

FC Cincinnati

Current Place: 2nd in MLS (4th in PPG)
Current Points: 57
Opponents: Orlando, New York, Montréal

FC Cincinnati won the Supporters’ Shield in 2019 and have a real chance to secure it this season, with three matches remaining.

Head coach Pat Noonan’s side is back in form with consecutive wins after picking up just a single victory in a five-game stretch, and have a realistically winnable remaining schedule against Orlando City SC, New York Red Bulls and CF Montréal.

The Orlando game will be their biggest test, and they should be able to come away with a win in the final two matches of the season. If they do, it will likely come down to the attacking core of MLS MVP contender Evander, summer re-addition Brenner and striker Kévin Denkey, the third most expensive incoming transfer in MLS history.

Brenner has three goals in three games since signing ahead of the secondary transfer deadline in August, while Evander has 17 goals and Denkey 13, with the trio combining for 33 goals of Cincinnati’s 47 this season.

The defensive setup might not be the league’s best, but Cincinnati have shown a knack for the big moments and could easily climb the table in their final matches.

Predicted Points: 63

San Diego FC

Anders Dreyer is a candidate for MLS MVP with 33 goal contributions. | Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

Current place: 3rd in MLS (5th in PPG)
Current Points: 57
Opponents: San Jose, Portland, Houston

San Diego FC sit atop the Western Conference after Matchday 35, but may have the most challenging road to the Supporters’ Shield among the top five in points-per-game.

With three matches remaining, they can only sit and watch what the Whitecaps are doing below them, and hope they drop points. Meanwhile, they will take on a winnable schedule, but one that comes with teams that have caused some problems this season.

Head coach Mikey Varas has built a brand around Anders Dreyer and Hirving “Chucky” Lozano this season, and the two have 33 and 19 goal contributions, respectively. Yet, the lack of a potent No. 9 could come back to bite them after they lost Milan Iloski in the summer.

Their recent form has also taken a dip, with a recent loss to Minnesota United and a draw with Atlanta United potentially ending their Supporters’ Shield dreams. As for the top of the Western Conference, though, they’ll need the Whitecaps to drop some points.